The Stars stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 3.54–3.98 and won anyway.
Dallas won the scoreboard war 4–3, but the underlying numbers tell a different story: Winnipeg controlled the game, out-attempting Dallas 33–19 and generating 3.98 expected goals to Dallas's 3.54. The Jets squandered that advantage, undershooting their xG by 0.98 goals.
The imbalance wasn't in volume; it was in quality. Dallas created seven high-danger chances and converted zero, while E. Comrie's save percentage plummeted to 0.789 against C. DeSmith's 0.909. But Dallas capitalized ruthlessly off the rush, converting three of 21 chances to Winnipeg's two on 32 attempts. That's the margin.
Logan Stanley's slot goal midway through the third—the turning point—didn't end the game, but Dallas's power play did the damage: two goals on eight shots (0.78 xG) proved decisive. Dallas created five rebound opportunities and converted zero. Winnipeg created four and converted one. Crashing the net cut both ways.
M. Rantanen orchestrated Dallas's attack with three assists across 19:07. M. Scheifele responded with two goals in 25:47 for Winnipeg, and K. Connor chipped in two assists in 25:31. Those numbers masked the underlying story: Winnipeg played the better game and lost anyway.
