Motion-blurred skater in a Seattle Kraken sweater

Breakdown · LAK at SEA

Kraken edge the Kings in overtime

Final / OTWed, Dec 10

LAKLos Angeles Kings2 SEASeattle Kraken3

The verdict · coin flip

The Kraken won a genuine coin flip — neither side controlled the run of play.

LAK 2 · SEA 3

◆ By the ModelJul 11, 7:52 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Kraken won 3-2 in overtime, but the Kings dominated the underlying numbers. Expected goals split 4.04-4.30 (a slight edge to the Kings), and high-danger chances went 6-8 in LA's favor. J. Daccord stole the result—he saved 2.30 goals above expected, while LA underperformed their xG by the same 2.30, wasting quality chances they created.

The Kraken controlled possession, holding 56% of shot attempts (33-26 on goal), but for most of the game, LA's metrics suggested they had the edge. That changed in overtime. V. Dunn's slap shot from the top of the circles at 01:21 gave Seattle the win—the deciding goal in a game the underlying numbers said should've gone either way.

A. Forsberg was outstanding on high-danger chances, stopping all 6 the Kraken threw at him. It wasn't enough. The Kings scored 2 goals on their 30 rush chances; Seattle matched that efficiency on 34 rush attempts. The difference came elsewhere—the Kraken power play was devastating, converting 3 goals on 23 PP shots.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page

Final · OT · Dec 10

LAK

SEA

Kraken edge the Kings in overtime

Chances 4.3 – 4.0Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

Dead even on chances. The Kraken took it anyway.

Expected goals · chance value

LAK

4.30

SEA

4.04

52% of the chances48%

The board read LAK 2, SEA 3. The chances read LAK 4.3, SEA 4.0.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

SEA

−1.0

goals above expected

SEA4.04 expected · 3 scored

Expected

Scored

LAK4.30 expected · 2 scored

Expected

Scored

The Kings left 2.3 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

Every goal, in order

P2 03:21SEAJ. McCannPP0–1
P2 08:16LAKA. LaferriereSH1–1
P3 14:40LAKK. FialaPP2–1
P3 19:34SEAM. BeniersPP2–2
OT 01:21SEAV. DunnPP2–3

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

LAK

45 shots

Final

95 shots

SEA

50 shots

LAK SEA GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

shots · 2 in

shots · 3 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

LAKSEA

2 / 8

2.29 xG

High danger

0 / 6

1.75 xG

0 / 12

1.42 xG

Medium

3 / 12

1.41 xG

0 / 40

0.58 xG

Low

0 / 53

0.87 xG

High-danger looks: LAK 2 of 8, SEA 0 of 6.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

J. Daccord

+2.3

SEA · 24/26

B+

A. Forsberg

+1.0

LAK · 30/33

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

Kraken edge the Kings in overtime

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 08 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 9–6no goals

2ndshots 6–16

03:21SEAJ. McCannpower play(V. Dunn, C. Stephenson)0–1
08:16LAKA. Laferriereshorthanded(J. Armia)1–1

3rdshots 11–10

14:40LAKK. Fialapower play(A. Kopitar, A. Kempe)2–1
19:34SEAM. Benierspower play(E. Tolvanen, V. Dunn)2–2

OTshots 0–1

01:21SEAV. Dunnpower play(E. Tolvanen, J. Eberle)2–3

score reads LAK–SEA

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

4.04

SEA chances

Goals their shots were worth

−1.0

Finishing

Goals below what those chances were worth

1.009

SEA puck luck

About 1.000 — a normal night for bounces

54.2%

Shot attempts

Over half — they had the puck more

Split by club

Who controlled the game

4.30Expected goals4.04

LAK 52% of the chance quality

26Shots on goal33

8High-danger chances6

60All attempts (Corsi)71

Adjusted for score: LAK 46% · SEA 54%

Faceoffs · SEA won56%off53%neu35%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

LAK2 / 8 · 2.29 xG

SEA0 / 6 · 1.75 xG

Medium dangermid-range

LAK0 / 12 · 1.42 xG

SEA3 / 12 · 1.41 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

LAK0 / 40 · 0.58 xG

SEA0 / 53 · 0.87 xG

SEA went 0-for-6 from high danger on 1.75 expected goals — 1.8 left on the table.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

LAK

2 G · 4.30 xG · -2.3

SEA

3 G · 4.04 xG · -1.0

012345

LAK finished -2.3 against expected, SEA -1.0.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

LAK

WRIST0/25

SNAP0/8

BACKHAND2/5

SLAP0/2

TIP IN0/4

DEFLECTED0/1

BAT0/0

OTHER0/15

SEA

WRIST0/19

SNAP0/11

BACKHAND0/6

SLAP2/8

TIP IN1/3

DEFLECTED0/2

BAT0/1

OTHER0/21

LAK

SEA

Off the rush

2 G on 30

2.38 xG

2 G on 34

3.20 xG

Off rebounds

0 G on 2

0.36 xG

0 G on 2

0.05 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: LAK went 0-for-25, SEA 0-for-19. LAK scored 2 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

A. Forsberg

LAK · 30/33 · .909

+1.0

saved above expected

B+

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger0/61.8+1.8

Medium3/121.4-1.6

Low0/530.9+0.9

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

J. Daccord

SEA · 24/26 · .923

+2.3

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger2/82.3+0.3

Medium0/121.4+1.4

Low0/400.6+0.6

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

95 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

LAK

45 shots

Final

95 shots

SEA

50 shots

LAK SEA GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Each club shoots toward its own end — LAK left, SEA right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

V. Dunn

#29 · D · SEA

1 G · 2 A · 3 SOG · 21:29 on ice

E. Tolvanen

#20 · R · SEA

0 G · 2 A · 1 SOG · 17:54 on ice · -1

A. Kopitar

#11 · C · LAK

0 G · 1 A · 2 SOG · 21:43 on ice

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Wed, Dec 10

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity

◆ By the ModelJul 11, 7:48 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects a 2.5–2.3 Kings win with Los Angeles at 53% probability—as close to a pick'em as exists.

Los Angeles is the hotter team on points pace, posting a 4-3-3 record over their last ten games. Seattle is underwater at -12 goal differential in that same span. The gap in underlying play is smaller than the form suggests: LAK owns 52.0% xG at 5v5, implying territorial dominance, while SEA sits at 46.0%. Corsi tells the same story—52.0% to 45.0%—expect a Kings team that controls puck movement. What tightens this matchup is PDO variance: Los Angeles is at 1.002, nearly average, while Seattle is at 1.011, a small but real mark that the Kraken are benefiting from shooting luck or goaltending overperformance. Neither will sustain it.

Both goaltenders are on back-to-backs. P. Grubauer and D. Kuemper could see backups or fatigued starters—a wild card that cuts both ways.

Alex Laferriere is LAK's engine at 0.87 xG/60, with 16 goals and 18 assists. His 2 high-danger goals and 9.9% shooting rate tell you the scoring is real, not luck-driven. Jared Wright trails at 0.83 xG/60 with 0 goals and 4 assists, suggesting secondary-line usage or sheltered deployment. For Seattle, Shane Wright runs at 0.77 xG/60 with 8 goals and 10 assists. His 4 high-danger goals and 10.4% shooting mark him as a finisher, not a volume scorer. Berkly Catton is lower-volume at 0.68 xG/60 but efficient: 6 goals, 8 assists, 5 high-danger goals at 8.8% shooting—a player tilting toward danger.

The tactical edges cut both ways. LAK's defensive liability is Adrian Kempe; Seattle's is Chandler Stephenson. Each team will probe those weaknesses. Los Angeles should win the territorial battle and force shooting from distance. Seattle will need to finish what chances it generates.

There's no hidden skew here: two teams close enough that a bounce or a goalie decision swings the night either way.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

LAK 53%

53%

LAK

Model favorite

53%

47%

LAK50SEA

LAK by 6 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score LAK 2.5–2.3 SEA; 19% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

LAK← edge

edge →SEA

52.0%46.0%

52.0%45.0%

2.422.13

2.202.51

1.851.87

1.711.95

1.0021.011

LAK holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.002 vs 1.011) says SEA has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · Last 10

LAK

4-3-3

+3 GD · 1d rest

SEA

3-6-1

-12 GD · 1d rest

1.002

LAK PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

1.011

SEA PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

Where the edges live

The Kings own the underlying play — 52.0% 5v5 xG vs 46.0%.
The Kings drive Corsi at 52.0% — expect territorial tilt.

Things to watch

The Kings own the underlying play — 52.0% 5v5 xG vs 46.0%.
The Kings drive Corsi at 52.0% — expect territorial tilt.
P. Grubauer is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
D. Kuemper is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
The Kings are the hotter team by points pace (4-3-3 in their last 10).
The Kraken are underwater at -12 goal differential over their last 10.

Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score

LAK

Expected in goal

D. Kuemper

back-to-back.905 last start

Backup Darcy Kuemper · -5.8 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

SEA

Expected in goal

P. Grubauer

back-to-back.926 last start

Backup Joey Daccord · -6.2 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG

LAK

Alex Laferriere16G 18A

0.87 xG/60 · 2 HD · 9.9% sh

Jared Wright0G 4A

0.83 xG/60 · 0 HD · 0.0% sh

SEA

Shane Wright8G 10A

0.77 xG/60 · 4 HD · 10.4% sh

Berkly Catton6G 8A

0.68 xG/60 · 5 HD · 8.8% sh

Keep going

Where to next

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