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← Thu, Dec 11 · the slate
Breakdown · VGK at PHI

Golden Knights edge the Flyers in overtime

Final / OTThu, Dec 11
VGKVegas Golden Knights3PHIPhiladelphia Flyers2
The verdict · earned

The Golden Knights earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

VGK 3 · PHI 2
◆ By the ModelJul 11, 7:58 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The 3-2 scoreline flattered the Flyers. Golden Knights held 55% of 5v5 expected goals (3.09–2.50), commanding play across every phase and converting their chances while the Flyers did not.

Both teams faced five high-danger looks. Golden Knights buried theirs; the Flyers managed zero conversions, a rarity that underscores their struggle. A. Schmid (VGK) was immaculate on high-danger attempts, stopping all five at 100%.

The turning point came at 02:47 of overtime when M. Stone's wrist shot from the doorstep ended it. Yet regulation decided the game through execution. Each team scored twice on the rush — Flyers on 21 chances, Golden Knights on 22 — but Golden Knights' execution mattered. Flyers couldn't convert a single high-danger look despite crashing the net. Golden Knights converted one of four rebound chances; Flyers converted zero of three.

The goaltending gap reflected the underlying play: A. Schmid (VGK) made 17 saves on 19 shots (0.895 SV%), while D. Vladar (PHI) stopped 19 of 22 (0.864 SV%).

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · OT · Dec 11
VGK
3
PHI
2

Golden Knights edge the Flyers in overtime

Chances 3.1 – 2.5Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Golden Knights earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value
VGK
3.09
PHI
2.50
55% of the chances45%

The board read VGK 3, PHI 2. The chances read VGK 3.1, PHI 2.5.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
VGK
−0.1
goals above expected
VGK3.09 expected · 3 scored
Expected
Scored
PHI2.50 expected · 2 scored
Expected
Scored

Both sides finished close to what their chances were worth. This one was earned on the ice.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 06:07VGKZ. Whitecloud1–0
  2. P1 16:11PHIT. Zegras1–1
  3. P2 12:53VGKM. StonePP2–1
  4. P2 16:08PHIN. Juulsen2–2
  5. OT 02:47VGKM. Stone3–2
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
VGK
35 shots
3
Final
67 shots
PHI
32 shots
2
VGK attackPHI attack
VGK PHI Goal
35
shots · 3 in
32
shots · 2 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
VGKPHI
1 / 5
1.09 xG
High danger
0 / 5
1.11 xG
2 / 13
1.50 xG
Medium
2 / 10
1.01 xG
0 / 30
0.51 xG
Low
0 / 34
0.37 xG

The Flyers went 0 for 5 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
B
A. Schmid
+0.5
VGK · 17/19
C
D. Vladar
+0.1
PHI · 19/22
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Golden Knights edge the Flyers in overtime

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 6–5
  1. 06:07VGKZ. Whitecloud(I. Barbashev, B. Bowman)1–0
  2. 16:11PHIT. Zegras(T. Sanheim, C. Dvorak)1–1
2ndshots 9–9
  1. 12:53VGKM. Stonepower play(P. Dorofeyev, J. Eichel)2–1
  2. 16:08PHIN. Juulsen(C. Dvorak, C. Grundstrom)2–2
3rdshots 5–5no goals
    OTshots 2–0
    1. 02:47VGKM. Stone(J. Eichel)3–2

    score reads VGK–PHI

    Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
    Process vs result

    The numbers

    XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
    3.09
    VGK chances
    Goals their shots were worth
    −0.1
    Finishing
    Goals below what those chances were worth
    1.022
    VGK puck luck
    Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way
    49.5%
    Shot attempts
    Under half — they were outshot
    Split by club

    Who controlled the game

    3.09Expected goals2.50
    VGK 55% of the chance quality
    22Shots on goal19
    5High-danger chances5
    48All attempts (Corsi)49
    Adjusted for score: VGK 49% · PHI 51%
    Faceoffs · PHI won53%off33%neu47%def
    Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
    How the game was won

    The danger ladder

    shotsgoalsexpected
    High dangerslot & crease
    VGK1 / 5 · 1.09 xG
    PHI0 / 5 · 1.11 xG
    Medium dangermid-range
    VGK2 / 13 · 1.50 xG
    PHI2 / 10 · 1.01 xG
    Low dangerperimeter & point
    VGK0 / 30 · 0.51 xG
    PHI0 / 34 · 0.37 xG

    PHI went 0-for-5 from high danger on 1.11 expected goals — 1.1 left on the table.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
    The luck layer

    Finishing vs expected

    expectedactual
    VGK
    3 G · 3.09 xG · -0.1
    PHI
    2 G · 2.50 xG · -0.5
    01234

    VGK finished -0.1 against expected, PHI -0.5.

    Source · Backcheck xG model
    Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
    What they shot — and what went in

    Shot diet

    goalsshots
    VGK
    WRIST2/22
    SNAP0/5
    BACKHAND1/5
    SLAP0/2
    TIP IN0/1
    OTHER0/13
    PHI
    WRIST0/16
    SNAP1/10
    BACKHAND0/3
    SLAP1/2
    TIP IN0/1
    OTHER0/17
    VGK
    PHI
    Off the rush
    2 G on 22
    2.17 xG
    2 G on 21
    1.61 xG
    Off rebounds
    1 G on 4
    0.48 xG
    0 G on 3
    0.72 xG

    Wrist shots carried the volume: VGK went 2-for-22, PHI 0-for-16. VGK scored 2 of theirs off the rush.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
    New to these numbers?

    Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

    The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

    xG
    Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
    HD
    High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
    Corsi
    Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
    Adj.
    Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
    GSAx
    Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
    PDO
    Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
    Shot by shot

    In the net

    Graded on goals saved above expected
    A. Schmid
    VGK · 17/19 · .895
    +0.5
    saved above expected
    B
    the night
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger0/51.1+1.1
    Medium2/101.0-1.0
    Low0/340.4+0.4

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    D. Vladar
    PHI · 19/22 · .864
    +0.1
    saved above expected
    C
    the night
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger1/51.1+0.1
    Medium2/131.5-0.5
    Low0/300.5+0.5

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    67 shots · press play to watch the game back

    Where the shots came from

    NHL play-by-play coordinates
    VGK
    35 shots
    3
    Final
    67 shots
    PHI
    32 shots
    2
    VGK attackPHI attack
    VGK PHI Goal

    Each club shoots toward its own end — VGK left, PHI right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

    Ranked from the box score

    Three stars

    Points first
    Three stars · computed, not voted
    J. Eichel
    #9 · C · VGK
    0 G · 2 A · 2 SOG · 19:23 on ice · +1
    M. Stone
    #61 · R · VGK
    2 G · 0 A · 5 SOG · 18:57 on ice · +1
    C. Dvorak
    #22 · C · PHI
    0 G · 2 A · 0 SOG · 17:33 on ice · +1
    Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
    What the model said beforehand

    Before the game

    Written Thu, Dec 11
    Open the pre-game read
    Written from the numbers

    The read

    Edited for clarity
    ◆ By the ModelJul 11, 7:57 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

    The numbers say flip a coin. A predictive model projects Vegas to win 2.4–2.3, giving the Golden Knights a 51% win probability—essentially even money in a league that rarely deals them out this evenly.

    Vegas owns the underlying play. The Golden Knights generate 54.0% of expected goals at 5v5 compared to Philadelphia's 51.0%, and control shot attempts at 52.0% Corsi. They should tilt the ice. Yet the Flyers' PDO of 1.008 sits comfortably above neutral while Vegas runs cold at 0.983—a gap that typically reverts. If Vegas shoots at league average instead of its current depth, this game shifts.

    The tension is real. Vegas drives possession. Philadelphia converts chances at an unusual rate. The back-to-back schedule clouds both crease situations: D. Vladar faces fatigue, and C. Hart enters the second leg of a doubleheader. Either could fold, or both could hold.

    Watch Brandon Saad for Vegas. He's generating 0.91 xG per 60 minutes and sits at 4.1% shooting—a player running cold but dangerous, with 3 goals and 6 assists on that volume. Tomas Hertl works at 0.88 xG/60 and has converted at 4.3%, totaling 5 goals and 17 assists. Both create, but neither has finished at his ceiling. Saad is marked inactive for this game, which shifts emphasis to Hertl.

    Owen Tippett leads Philly's charge. At 0.88 xG/60—identical to Hertl's volume—Tippett converts at 12.1%, a number that explains his 19 goals on middling shot production. Christian Dvorak spins at 0.81 xG/60 but finishes at 11.2%, yielding 12 goals and 21 assists. Both Philadelphia forwards operate at the conversion rate Vegas is leaving on the table.

    The tactical foundation: Vegas generates more chances but buries fewer. Philadelphia takes what it gets and scores. Rasmus Andersson anchors Vegas's defensive weakness; the Flyers' corresponding exposure runs through Dvorak. Both teams register 0% of their goals from high-danger situations and off the rush, suggesting possession-based scoring and few scrambles late.

    The model nailed this one. True toss-up, separated by depth, fatigue, and whether cold shooting regresses or sustained performance keeps pace.

    What the model said beforehand

    The model's lean

    VGK 51%
    51%
    VGK
    Model favorite
    51%
    49%
    VGK50PHI

    VGK by 2 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score VGK 2.4–2.3 PHI; 19% chance it's tied after 60.

    Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
    Season rates · 5v5

    Tale of the tape

    NHL stats API · our xG
    VGK← edge
    edge →PHI
    54.0%51.0%
    52.0%48.0%
    2.522.26
    2.112.20
    2.121.96
    2.101.82
    0.9831.008

    VGK holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.983 vs 1.008) says PHI has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

    Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
    Form · Last 10
    VGK
    5-2-3
    -1 GD · 1d rest
    PHI
    7-3-0
    +7 GD · 1d rest
    0.983
    VGK PDO
    Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
    1.008
    PHI PDO
    Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
    What decides it

    Keys to the game

    Where the edges live
    • The Golden Knights own the underlying play — 54.0% 5v5 xG vs 51.0%.
    • The Golden Knights drive Corsi at 52.0% — expect territorial tilt.
    Regression watch
    • The Golden Knights' PDO is 0.983 — running cold, due for positive regression.
    Things to watch
    • The Golden Knights own the underlying play — 54.0% 5v5 xG vs 51.0%.
    • The Golden Knights drive Corsi at 52.0% — expect territorial tilt.
    • D. Vladar is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
    • C. Hart is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
    • The Golden Knights' PDO is 0.983 — running cold, due for positive regression.
    Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

    Lineups

    NHL box score
    VGK
    Expected in goal
    C. Hart
    back-to-back.852 last start
    Backup Akira Schmid · -1.0 GSAx this season
    Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

    No completed game on file for this club yet.

    PHI
    Expected in goal
    D. Vladar
    back-to-back.944 last start
    Backup Dan Vladar · +13.8 GSAx this season
    Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

    No completed game on file for this club yet.

    Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

    Computed danger · scouting

    Players to watch

    NHL stats API · our xG
    VGK
    Brandon Saad3G 6A
    0.91 xG/60 · 1 HD · 4.1% sh
    Tomas Hertl5G 17A
    0.88 xG/60 · 1 HD · 4.3% sh
    PHI
    Owen Tippett19G 18A
    0.88 xG/60 · 2 HD · 12.1% sh
    Christian Dvorak12G 21A
    0.81 xG/60 · 3 HD · 11.2% sh
    Keep going

    Where to next

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