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Breakdown · BOS at WPG

Bruins pull away from the Jets

FinalThu, Dec 11

The verdict · earned

The Bruins earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

BOS 6 · WPG 3

◆ By the ModelJul 11, 8:05 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Bruins dominated the scoreboard (6-3) but nearly every underlying metric suggested a closer contest. Winnipeg controlled shot attempts (55%, 29–24 on goal) and high-danger chances (7–5), yet fell decisively.

Boston escaped with elite efficiency where the Jets showed none. Expected goals favored Boston only marginally—3.83 to 3.40—yet the Bruins outperformed their model by 2.17 goals. Winnipeg's goalie E. Comrie underperformed by 1.17, a gap between stopping the puck and preventing scores.

The Bruins' power play proved lethal: 2 goals on 6 shots (0.30 xG), a conversion rate that separated the teams. Boston proved clinical in high-danger chances—2 of 5 (40%)—a rate Winnipeg's 7 attempts could not match. Boston also thrived on the rush: two goals from 22 attempts, velocity meeting finish.

D. Pastrnak's wrist shot from the point (P3, 18:04) marked the turning point. He finished with 2G and 2A in 21:21, driving the decisive margin. M. Geekie's three assists in 16:24 orchestrated without scoring. E. Lindholm (1G, 1A in 14:19) provided secondary depth.

Winnipeg's only consolation: they crashed effectively. Nine rebound opportunities, two converted. But J. Korpisalo (BOS) was solid in net—26 saves on 29 shots (0.897 SV%)—and Boston's goaltending held when it mattered. The gap was execution: Winnipeg played well enough to build chances, Boston capitalized on theirs decisively.

Three Stars

#88 D. Pastrnak (BOS) — 2G, 2A in 21:21
#39 M. Geekie (BOS) — 3A in 16:24
#28 E. Lindholm (BOS) — 1G, 1A in 14:19

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page

Final · Dec 11

BOS

WPG

Bruins pull away from the Jets

Chances 3.8 – 3.4Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

The Bruins earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value

BOS

3.83

WPG

3.40

53% of the chances47%

The board read BOS 6, WPG 3. The chances read BOS 3.8, WPG 3.4.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

BOS

+2.2

goals above expected

BOS3.83 expected · 6 scored

Expected

Scored

WPG3.40 expected · 3 scored

Expected

Scored

The Bruins scored 2.2 more than their chances were worth. That does not repeat.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

Every goal, in order

P1 05:59WPGM. Barron0–1
P1 08:24BOSD. PastrnakPP1–1
P1 10:28BOSC. MittelstadtPP2–1
P1 11:08BOSS. Kuraly3–1
P1 13:37WPGA. Iafallo3–2
P2 14:36BOSH. Lindholm4–2
P2 17:46WPGG. VilardiPP4–3

+2 more on the full breakdown

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

BOS

35 shots

Final

76 shots

WPG

41 shots

BOS WPG GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

shots · 6 in

shots · 3 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

BOSWPG

2 / 5

1.82 xG

High danger

2 / 7

1.70 xG

3 / 14

1.67 xG

Medium

1 / 11

1.17 xG

1 / 32

0.33 xG

Low

0 / 41

0.52 xG

The Bruins buried 2 of 5 high-danger looks.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

J. Korpisalo

+0.4

BOS · 26/29

D-

E. Comrie

−1.2

WPG · 18/23

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

Bruins pull away from the Jets

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 08 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 7–13

05:59WPGM. Barron(J. Morrissey, C. Koepke)0–1
08:24BOSD. Pastrnakpower play(C. McAvoy, M. Geekie)1–1
10:28BOSC. Mittelstadtpower play(M. Lohrei, V. Arvidsson)2–1
11:08BOSS. Kuraly(T. Jeannot, M. Kastelic)3–1
13:37WPGA. Iafallo(D. DeMelo, D. Samberg)3–2

2ndshots 9–11

14:36BOSH. Lindholm(D. Pastrnak, M. Geekie)4–2
17:46WPGG. Vilardipower play(C. Perfetti, K. Connor)4–3

3rdshots 8–5

14:43BOSE. Lindholm(D. Pastrnak, N. Zadorov)5–3
18:04BOSD. Pastrnakempty net(M. Geekie, E. Lindholm)6–3

score reads BOS–WPG

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

3.83

BOS chances

Goals their shots were worth

+2.2

Finishing

Goals above what those chances were worth

1.067

BOS puck luck

Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way

46.4%

Shot attempts

Under half — they were outshot

Split by club

Who controlled the game

3.83Expected goals3.40

BOS 53% of the chance quality

24Shots on goal29

5High-danger chances7

51All attempts (Corsi)59

Adjusted for score: BOS 43% · WPG 57%

Faceoffs · WPG won57%off35%neu53%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

BOS2 / 5 · 1.82 xG

WPG2 / 7 · 1.70 xG

Medium dangermid-range

BOS3 / 14 · 1.67 xG

WPG1 / 11 · 1.17 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

BOS1 / 32 · 0.33 xG

WPG0 / 41 · 0.52 xG

BOS went 3-for-14 from medium danger on 1.67 expected goals — 1.3 above expected.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

BOS

6 G · 3.83 xG · +2.2

WPG

3 G · 3.40 xG · -0.4

01234567

BOS finished +2.2 against expected, WPG -0.4.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

BOS

WRIST3/21

SNAP1/4

BACKHAND1/4

TIP IN0/4

SLAP1/2

BAT0/0

BETWEEN LEGS0/0

OTHER0/16

WPG

WRIST2/25

SNAP0/5

BACKHAND1/3

TIP IN0/2

SLAP0/4

BAT0/1

BETWEEN LEGS0/1

OTHER0/18

BOS

WPG

Off the rush

2 G on 22

2.03 xG

1 G on 17

1.44 xG

Off rebounds

1 G on 4

0.36 xG

2 G on 9

1.53 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: BOS went 3-for-21, WPG 2-for-25. BOS scored 2 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

J. Korpisalo

BOS · 26/29 · .897

+0.4

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger2/71.7-0.3

Medium1/111.2+0.2

Low0/410.5+0.5

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

E. Comrie

WPG · 18/23 · .783

-1.2

saved above expected

D-

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger2/51.8-0.2

Medium3/141.7-1.3

Low1/320.3-0.7

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

76 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

BOS

35 shots

Final

76 shots

WPG

41 shots

BOS WPG GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Each club shoots toward its own end — BOS left, WPG right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

D. Pastrnak

#88 · R · BOS

2 G · 2 A · 7 SOG · 21:21 on ice · +3

M. Geekie

#39 · C · BOS

0 G · 3 A · 1 SOG · 16:24 on ice · +2

E. Lindholm

#28 · C · BOS

1 G · 1 A · 1 SOG · 14:19 on ice · +2

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Thu, Dec 11

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity

◆ By the ModelJul 11, 8:17 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects a 2.5–2.6 goal game with Winnipeg at 53% win probability—as close to a pick'em as you'll find.

Boston has momentum: 6–4–0 over their last 10, though form masks a larger symmetry. Both teams run nearly identical rate metrics at 5v5. The Bruins hold 47.0% xG and 49.0% Corsi; Winnipeg matches that Corsi at 49.0% and edges Boston slightly in xG at 48.0%. The telling divergence is PDO. Boston's 1.023 signals they're running hot and due for regression. Winnipeg sits at 0.998—neutral territory—yet their -13 goal differential over the same stretch shows the floor: they're losing close games, a leading indicator of further damage.

Both goaltenders are on back-to-backs. E. Comrie and J. Swayman could split or play fatigued. Watch warmups; either outcome weakens execution.

Players to Watch

Boston

Viktor Arvidsson: 1.04 xG/60, 18G 24A, 2 HD goals, 13.0% shooting
Tanner Jeannot: 0.75 xG/60, 6G 14A, 2 HD goals, 8.3% shooting

Winnipeg

Nino Niederreiter: 0.87 xG/60, 6G 6A, 3 HD goals, 8.6% shooting
Kyle Connor: 0.83 xG/60, 25G 30A, 2 HD goals, 13.0% shooting

Arvidsson powers Boston's offense at 1.04 xG/60 and owns 18 goals—the primary offensive load. Jeannot runs half that volume at 0.75 xG/60 but has 2 high-danger goals, signaling finishing luck. For Winnipeg, Niederreiter's 3 HD goals on 0.87 xG/60 suggest an outsized finishing edge, while Connor's 25 goals represent the volume play at 0.83 xG/60. Watch Elias Lindholm (Boston's defensive weak point) and Colin Miller (Winnipeg's) in transition.

Both offenses reveal the same tactical constraint: 0% HD goal rate and 0% rebound goal rate. This is a game decided by execution on primary chances and nothing else. Neither side can afford careless turnovers into the slot.

The model nails it. Take the 53% and move on.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

WPG 53%

53%

WPG

Model favorite

47%

53%

BOS50WPG

WPG by 6 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score BOS 2.5–2.6 WPG; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

BOS← edge

edge →WPG

47.0%48.0%

49.0%49.0%

2.392.34

2.672.55

2.221.90

1.822.10

1.0230.998

The season numbers split 3–3 — no clear process edge — and the luck row (1.023 vs 0.998) says BOS has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · Last 10

BOS

6-4-0

+5 GD · 1d rest

WPG

2-7-1

-13 GD · 1d rest

1.023

BOS PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

0.998

WPG PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

Regression watch

The Bruins' PDO is 1.023 — running hot, expect some regression.

Things to watch

E. Comrie is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
J. Swayman is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
The Bruins are the hotter team by points pace (6-4-0 in their last 10).
The Jets are underwater at -13 goal differential over their last 10.
The Bruins' PDO is 1.023 — running hot, expect some regression.

Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score

BOS

Expected in goal

J. Swayman

back-to-back.923 last start

Backup Jeremy Swayman · +28.8 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

WPG

Expected in goal

E. Comrie

back-to-back.789 last start

Backup Connor Hellebuyck · +5.5 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG

BOS

Viktor Arvidsson18G 24A

1.04 xG/60 · 2 HD · 13.0% sh

Tanner Jeannot6G 14A

0.75 xG/60 · 2 HD · 8.3% sh

WPG

Nino Niederreiter6G 6A

0.87 xG/60 · 3 HD · 8.6% sh

Kyle Connor25G 30A

0.83 xG/60 · 2 HD · 13.0% sh

Keep going

Where to next

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