The Wild stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 5.03–4.14 and won anyway.
The Senators generated better chances but the Wild won anyway—expected goals favored Ottawa 5.03–4.14, yet Minnesota prevailed 3–2. J. Wallstedt saved 3.03 goals above expected, essentially stealing the game and inverting what the underlying metrics promised.
Minnesota's advantage lay in efficiency rather than volume. Despite taking fewer shots on goal (25 to Ottawa's 36), the Wild's dangerous chances carried significantly more weight—0.099 xG per shot versus Ottawa's 0.066. When high-danger attempts nearly split (Minnesota 11, Ottawa 10), Minnesota's superior per-shot quality meant the difference between scoring and wasting.
Ottawa's conversion failure defined the outcome. The Senators went 0 for 10 on high-danger attempts, a devastating miss rate that won't repeat itself. They created 8 rebound opportunities but converted only 1. Minnesota, meanwhile, struck with clinical precision in transition, converting 3 goals on 23 rush chances.
L. Meriläinen actually outperformed expectation by 1.14 goals, but his performance couldn't overcome Ottawa's offensive futility. The Senators underperformed their xG by 3.03 total—a massive gulf reflecting either poor shot selection on high-danger chances or a failure to execute at the most important moments.
Wallstedt's +3.03 saved the Wild.
