The Avalanche earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
Colorado's 4-2 win understates how thoroughly they controlled this game. The Avalanche dominated expected goals 65-35 (5.75–3.08) and held 59% of shot attempts (41–29 on goal), but they left 1.75 goals on the ice—a significant underperformance of their actual chances.
Colorado's shot quality was the real difference. They generated 0.074 xG per shot versus Nashville's 0.050, proving they attacked with precision rather than volume. That efficiency showed in high-danger chances: Colorado 9, Nashville 4.
Nashville's story was its goaltending. J. Annunen made 37 of 40 saves and outperformed his expected save rate by 2.75 goals, keeping the Predators competitive when they had no business being close. Without his performance, the scoreline would've looked far worse.
Colorado's rush game was ruthless—four goals on 36 rush chances—while Nashville managed only two goals on 27 rush chances. The turning point arrived when Tyson Jost ripped a wrist shot from the slot at 18:57 of the third period.
Colorado created four rebound opportunities but converted none, suggesting they didn't fully capitalize on their offensive pressure. Yet they scored two goals from low-danger spots, proving they could find the back of the net even when the setup wasn't pristine.