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← Mon, Dec 15 · the slate
Breakdown · LAK at DAL

C. DeSmith stands tall as the Stars edge the Kings

FinalMon, Dec 15
LAKLos Angeles Kings1DALDallas Stars4
The verdict · earned

The Stars earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

LAK 1 · DAL 4
◆ By the ModelJul 11, 8:31 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Dallas rolled past Los Angeles 4-1 in a game expected goals called nearly even—4.01 to 3.53, a 53-47 split that looks absurd next to a three-goal final margin. The gap tells you everything: C. DeSmith's brilliance and the Kings' inability to finish.

DeSmith recorded a 0.964 save percentage on 28 shots, stopping 2.53 goals above expected. A. Forsberg went 17 for 20 (0.850 SV%) for Los Angeles before D. Kuemper replaced him and allowed nothing on five attempts.

Dallas generated sharper chances—7 high-danger opportunities to Los Angeles' 5—and converted with precision. The Stars finished at 0.077 expected goals per shot attempt versus the Kings' 0.057; not just more volume, but better quality. Off the rush, Dallas scored 3 goals on 24 chances, a rate that punishes slow transitions. Los Angeles underperformed their xG by 2.53, possession metrics that translate to wasted chances.

Wyatt Johnston's snap shot from the wing at 19:28 of the third broke open a tight contest. Once Dallas extended the lead, the Kings had no answer.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · Dec 15
LAK
1
DAL
4

C. DeSmith stands tall as the Stars edge the Kings

Chances 3.5 – 4.0Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Stars earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value
LAK
3.53
DAL
4.01
47% of the chances53%

The board read LAK 1, DAL 4. The chances read LAK 3.5, DAL 4.0.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
DAL
−0.0
goals above expected
DAL4.01 expected · 4 scored
Expected
Scored
LAK3.53 expected · 1 scored
Expected
Scored

The Kings left 2.5 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P2 11:03LAKA. KuzmenkoPP1–0
  2. P2 15:42DALM. Duchene1–1
  3. P3 06:12DALO. Bäck1–2
  4. P3 16:11DALM. Rantanen1–3
  5. P3 19:28DALW. JohnstonEN1–4
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
LAK
44 shots
1
Final
80 shots
DAL
36 shots
4
LAK attackDAL attack
LAK DAL Goal
44
shots · 1 in
36
shots · 4 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
LAKDAL
1 / 5
1.24 xG
High danger
1 / 7
2.15 xG
0 / 15
1.74 xG
Medium
3 / 13
1.38 xG
0 / 42
0.55 xG
Low
0 / 32
0.48 xG

High-danger looks: LAK 1 of 5, DAL 1 of 7.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
A+
D. Kuemper
+4.0
LAK · 5/5
A+
C. DeSmith
+2.5
DAL · 27/28
+1 more on the full breakdown
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

C. DeSmith stands tall as the Stars edge the Kings

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 11–5no goals
    2ndshots 13–9
    1. 11:03LAKA. Kuzmenkopower play1–0
    2. 15:42DALM. Duchene(M. Rantanen, W. Johnston)1–1
    3rdshots 4–12
    1. 06:12DALO. Bäck(R. Faksa, C. Blackwell)1–2
    2. 16:11DALM. Rantanen(T. Harley)1–3
    3. 19:28DALW. Johnstonempty net(M. Duchene)1–4

    score reads LAK–DAL

    Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
    Process vs result

    The numbers

    XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
    4.01
    DAL chances
    Goals their shots were worth
    −0.0
    Finishing
    Goals below what those chances were worth
    1.061
    DAL puck luck
    Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way
    45.6%
    Shot attempts
    Under half — they were outshot
    Split by club

    Who controlled the game

    3.53Expected goals4.01
    DAL 53% of the chance quality
    28Shots on goal26
    5High-danger chances7
    62All attempts (Corsi)52
    Adjusted for score: LAK 55% · DAL 45%
    Faceoffs · DAL won44%off61%neu48%def
    Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
    How the game was won

    The danger ladder

    shotsgoalsexpected
    High dangerslot & crease
    LAK1 / 5 · 1.24 xG
    DAL1 / 7 · 2.15 xG
    Medium dangermid-range
    LAK0 / 15 · 1.74 xG
    DAL3 / 13 · 1.38 xG
    Low dangerperimeter & point
    LAK0 / 42 · 0.55 xG
    DAL0 / 32 · 0.48 xG

    LAK went 0-for-15 from medium danger on 1.74 expected goals — 1.7 left on the table.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
    The luck layer

    Finishing vs expected

    expectedactual
    LAK
    1 G · 3.53 xG · -2.5
    DAL
    4 G · 4.01 xG · -0.0
    012345

    LAK finished -2.5 against expected, DAL -0.0.

    Source · Backcheck xG model
    Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
    What they shot — and what went in

    Shot diet

    goalsshots
    LAK
    SNAP1/29
    SLAP0/6
    WRIST0/2
    BACKHAND0/3
    TIP IN0/2
    DEFLECTED0/1
    WRAP AROUND0/1
    BAT0/0
    OTHER0/18
    DAL
    SNAP3/21
    SLAP0/3
    WRIST0/4
    BACKHAND0/3
    TIP IN1/3
    DEFLECTED0/1
    WRAP AROUND0/0
    BAT0/1
    OTHER0/16
    LAK
    DAL
    Off the rush
    1 G on 21
    2.09 xG
    3 G on 24
    2.54 xG
    Off rebounds
    0 G on 5
    0.96 xG
    0 G on 4
    0.66 xG

    Snap shots carried the volume: LAK went 1-for-29, DAL 3-for-21. DAL scored 3 of theirs off the rush.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
    New to these numbers?

    Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

    The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

    xG
    Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
    HD
    High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
    Corsi
    Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
    Adj.
    Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
    GSAx
    Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
    PDO
    Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
    Shot by shot

    In the net

    Graded on goals saved above expected
    A. Forsberg
    LAK · 17/20 · .850
    +1.0
    saved above expected
    B+
    the night
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger1/72.1+1.1
    Medium3/131.4-1.6
    Low0/320.5+0.5

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    D. Kuemper
    LAK · 5/5 · 1.000
    +4.0
    saved above expected
    A+
    the night
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger1/72.1+1.1
    Medium3/131.4-1.6
    Low0/320.5+0.5

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    C. DeSmith
    DAL · 27/28 · .964
    +2.5
    saved above expected
    A+
    the night
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger1/51.2+0.2
    Medium0/151.7+1.7
    Low0/420.6+0.6

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    80 shots · press play to watch the game back

    Where the shots came from

    NHL play-by-play coordinates
    LAK
    44 shots
    1
    Final
    80 shots
    DAL
    36 shots
    4
    LAK attackDAL attack
    LAK DAL Goal

    Each club shoots toward its own end — LAK left, DAL right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

    Ranked from the box score

    Three stars

    Points first
    Three stars · computed, not voted
    M. Rantanen
    #96 · R · DAL
    1 G · 1 A · 3 SOG · 19:34 on ice · +2
    W. Johnston
    #53 · C · DAL
    1 G · 1 A · 1 SOG · 16:59 on ice · +3
    M. Duchene
    #95 · C · DAL
    1 G · 1 A · 2 SOG · 14:13 on ice · +3
    Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
    What the model said beforehand

    Before the game

    Written Mon, Dec 15
    Open the pre-game read
    Written from the numbers

    The read

    Edited for clarity
    ◆ By the ModelJul 11, 8:30 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

    The model projects a 2.4–2.4 draw with Dallas favored at 51% — functionally a pick'em. A few edges matter.

    Los Angeles owns territorial dominance. The Kings post a 52.0% Corsi%, controlling puck possession decisively. That surfaces in expected goals too: 52.0% xG% over 5v5 play. But Dallas's 51.0% xG% sits close enough that skill dominates variance here.

    Dallas is running hot. The Stars' 1.024 PDO ranks well above sustainable; expect some negative regression as luck normalizes. Los Angeles's 1.002 PDO sits closer to neutral. That matters for which team's results will compress closer to its talent level as this series unfolds.

    Both goalies face back-to-back situations. J. Oettinger and D. Kuemper could see backup appearances, or tired starters might play through fatigue. Either way, expect something less than peak performance from at least one crease.

    The performers:

    Alex Laferriere drives Los Angeles's offense. He's produced 16G 18A at a 0.87 xG/60 clip, with 2 high-danger goals and a 9.9% shooting percentage — high enough to sustain some luck. Jared Wright (0G 4A, 0.83 xG/60) has generated chances but hasn't found the back of the net; he's shooting 0.0%.

    Jason Robertson anchors Dallas. At 0.96 xG/60, he's the most dangerous forward on the ice: 25G 21A with 2 high-danger goals and a 12.4% shooting rate. Michael Bunting (8G 14A, 0.83 xG/60) sits at 7.6% shooting — room to run hot, or regression waiting to happen.

    Los Angeles leaks defensively through Adrian Kempe. Dallas's structural weakness runs through Tyler Myers. Both defenses sit at 0% high-danger goal rate and 0% rebound conversion—essentially even on cleanup play.

    The model is right. This is as close to an even matchup as the data permits. Territorial edge to Los Angeles, luck favoring Dallas, goaltending in flux: pick your poison.

    What the model said beforehand

    The model's lean

    DAL 51%
    51%
    DAL
    Model favorite
    49%
    51%
    LAK50DAL

    DAL by 2 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score LAK 2.4–2.4 DAL; 19% chance it's tied after 60.

    Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
    Season rates · 5v5

    Tale of the tape

    NHL stats API · our xG
    LAK← edge
    edge →DAL
    52.0%51.0%
    52.0%47.0%
    2.422.36
    2.202.29
    1.852.07
    1.711.68
    1.0021.024

    LAK holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.002 vs 1.024) says DAL has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

    Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
    Form · Last 10
    LAK
    4-2-4
    +3 GD · 1d rest
    DAL
    7-2-1
    +7 GD · 1d rest
    1.002
    LAK PDO
    Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
    1.024
    DAL PDO
    Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
    What decides it

    Keys to the game

    Where the edges live
    • The Kings drive Corsi at 52.0% — expect territorial tilt.
    Regression watch
    • The Stars' PDO is 1.024 — running hot, expect some regression.
    Things to watch
    • The Kings drive Corsi at 52.0% — expect territorial tilt.
    • J. Oettinger is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
    • D. Kuemper is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
    • The Stars' PDO is 1.024 — running hot, expect some regression.
    Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

    Lineups

    NHL box score
    LAK
    Expected in goal
    D. Kuemper
    back-to-back.947 last start
    Backup Darcy Kuemper · -5.8 GSAx this season
    Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

    No completed game on file for this club yet.

    DAL
    Expected in goal
    J. Oettinger
    back-to-back.864 last start
    Backup Jake Oettinger · +5.7 GSAx this season
    Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

    No completed game on file for this club yet.

    Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

    Computed danger · scouting

    Players to watch

    NHL stats API · our xG
    LAK
    Alex Laferriere16G 18A
    0.87 xG/60 · 2 HD · 9.9% sh
    Jared Wright0G 4A
    0.83 xG/60 · 0 HD · 0.0% sh
    DAL
    Jason Robertson25G 21A
    0.96 xG/60 · 2 HD · 12.4% sh
    Michael Bunting8G 14A
    0.83 xG/60 · 0 HD · 7.6% sh
    Keep going

    Where to next

    Back to the front page