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Motion-blurred skater in a Detroit Red Wings sweater
← Tue, Dec 16 · the slate
Breakdown · NYI at DET

Red Wings run the Islanders off the ice on the underlying numbers

FinalTue, Dec 16
NYINew York Islanders2DETDetroit Red Wings3
The verdict · earned

The Red Wings earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

NYI 2 · DET 3
◆ By the ModelJul 11, 8:36 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Red Wings dominated the underlying metrics but barely won. They controlled 67% of expected goals at 5-on-5 (4.06–1.96), yet their 3–2 victory left a goal on the table.

Goaltending explained the gap. Ilya Sorokin made 18 of 21 saves and overperformed his expected save percentage by 1.06 goals — the difference between a rout and a close game. J. Gibson stopped 16 of 18 shots for Detroit and played at expectation.

Detroit generated far more dangerous chances. The Red Wings' shots averaged 0.065 expected goals each; the Islanders' averaged 0.038. Detroit won the high-danger chances 9–3 and held 54% of shot attempts (21–18 on goal).

Detroit's efficiency was striking in transition. They scored three goals on 28 rush attempts, compared to two on 18 for New York. The Red Wings' power play was dominant: 2 goals on 3 shots, against 0.29 expected goals. New York generated higher-quality looks than their shot total suggested, but both teams wasted four rebound opportunities each.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · Dec 16
NYI
2
DET
3

Red Wings run the Islanders off the ice on the underlying numbers

Chances 2.0 – 4.1Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Red Wings earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value
NYI
1.96
DET
4.06
33% of the chances67%

The board read NYI 2, DET 3. The chances read NYI 2.0, DET 4.1.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
DET
−1.1
goals above expected
DET4.06 expected · 3 scored
Expected
Scored
NYI1.96 expected · 2 scored
Expected
Scored

Both sides finished close to what their chances were worth. This one was earned on the ice.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 04:27NYIE. Heineman1–0
  2. P3 02:03DETA. Sandin-Pellikka1–1
  3. P3 03:55DETA. DeBrincatPP1–2
  4. P3 11:26NYIS. Mayfield2–2
  5. P3 17:43DETA. DeBrincatPP2–3
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
NYI
30 shots
2
Final
71 shots
DET
41 shots
3
NYI attackDET attack
NYI DET Goal
30
shots · 2 in
41
shots · 3 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
NYIDET
0 / 3
0.57 xG
High danger
1 / 9
2.53 xG
2 / 9
0.95 xG
Medium
1 / 10
1.00 xG
0 / 40
0.45 xG
Low
1 / 43
0.53 xG

The Islanders went 0 for 3 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
B+
I. Sorokin
+1.1
NYI · 18/21
C
J. Gibson
−0.0
DET · 16/18
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Red Wings run the Islanders off the ice on the underlying numbers

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 7–8
  1. 04:27NYIE. Heineman(M. Barzal, J. Drouin)1–0
2ndshots 7–5no goals
    3rdshots 4–8
    1. 02:03DETA. Sandin-Pellikka(L. Raymond)1–1
    2. 03:55DETA. DeBrincatpower play(M. Seider, L. Raymond)1–2
    3. 11:26NYIS. Mayfield(J. Pageau, A. Lee)2–2
    4. 17:43DETA. DeBrincatpower play(M. Seider, L. Raymond)2–3

    score reads NYI–DET

    Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
    Process vs result

    The numbers

    XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
    4.06
    DET chances
    Goals their shots were worth
    −1.1
    Finishing
    Goals below what those chances were worth
    1.010
    DET puck luck
    About 1.000 — a normal night for bounces
    54.4%
    Shot attempts
    Over half — they had the puck more
    Split by club

    Who controlled the game

    1.96Expected goals4.06
    DET 67% of the chance quality
    18Shots on goal21
    3High-danger chances9
    52All attempts (Corsi)62
    Adjusted for score: NYI 44% · DET 56%
    Faceoffs · DET won41%off50%neu44%def
    Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
    How the game was won

    The danger ladder

    shotsgoalsexpected
    High dangerslot & crease
    NYI0 / 3 · 0.57 xG
    DET1 / 9 · 2.53 xG
    Medium dangermid-range
    NYI2 / 9 · 0.95 xG
    DET1 / 10 · 1.00 xG
    Low dangerperimeter & point
    NYI0 / 40 · 0.45 xG
    DET1 / 43 · 0.53 xG

    DET went 1-for-9 from high danger on 2.53 expected goals — 1.5 left on the table.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
    The luck layer

    Finishing vs expected

    expectedactual
    NYI
    2 G · 1.96 xG · +0.0
    DET
    3 G · 4.06 xG · -1.1
    012345

    NYI finished +0.0 against expected, DET -1.1.

    Source · Backcheck xG model
    Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
    What they shot — and what went in

    Shot diet

    goalsshots
    NYI
    WRIST1/15
    SNAP0/4
    SLAP1/7
    BACKHAND0/3
    TIP IN0/1
    OTHER0/22
    DET
    WRIST1/12
    SNAP2/18
    SLAP0/3
    BACKHAND0/4
    TIP IN0/4
    OTHER0/21
    NYI
    DET
    Off the rush
    2 G on 18
    1.35 xG
    3 G on 28
    2.73 xG
    Off rebounds
    0 G on 4
    0.50 xG
    0 G on 3
    0.63 xG

    Wrist shots carried the volume: NYI went 1-for-15, DET 1-for-12. DET scored 3 of theirs off the rush.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
    New to these numbers?

    Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

    The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

    xG
    Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
    HD
    High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
    Corsi
    Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
    Adj.
    Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
    GSAx
    Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
    PDO
    Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
    Shot by shot

    In the net

    Graded on goals saved above expected
    I. Sorokin
    NYI · 18/21 · .857
    +1.1
    saved above expected
    B+
    the night
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger1/92.5+1.5
    Medium1/101.0+0.0
    Low1/430.5-0.5

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    J. Gibson
    DET · 16/18 · .889
    -0.0
    saved above expected
    C
    the night
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger0/30.6+0.6
    Medium2/90.9-1.1
    Low0/400.5+0.5

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    71 shots · press play to watch the game back

    Where the shots came from

    NHL play-by-play coordinates
    NYI
    30 shots
    2
    Final
    71 shots
    DET
    41 shots
    3
    NYI attackDET attack
    NYI DET Goal

    Each club shoots toward its own end — NYI left, DET right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

    Ranked from the box score

    Three stars

    Points first
    Three stars · computed, not voted
    L. Raymond
    #23 · L · DET
    0 G · 3 A · 1 SOG · 19:51 on ice
    M. Seider
    #53 · D · DET
    0 G · 2 A · 0 SOG · 24:23 on ice · -1
    A. DeBrincat
    #93 · R · DET
    2 G · 0 A · 6 SOG · 16:50 on ice
    Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
    What the model said beforehand

    Before the game

    Written Tue, Dec 16
    Open the pre-game read
    Written from the numbers

    The read

    Edited for clarity
    ◆ By the ModelJul 11, 8:45 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

    The model projects this as a pick'em: Detroit at 53% win probability in a 2.5-2.7 goal game. These teams are statistical twins—both at 49.0% Corsi%, the Islanders at 48.0% xG% and Detroit at 49.0%. The only real separation is luck: Detroit's PDO of 0.985 trails New York's 0.993, suggesting the Red Wings have been marginally snake-bitten.

    Anders Lee is the Islanders' xG factory at 1.20 per 60. His 6.4% shooting rate reveals the tension: 9 goals and 20 assists with 2 high-danger goals still undershoots his chance creation. Bo Horvat is the real edge—0.87 xG/60 with an elite 12.8% shooting percentage yields 18 goals, including 3 from high-danger areas. That's a player who finishes when opportunities arise.

    Detroit counters with secondary scoring the Islanders lack. Alex DeBrincat (0.88 xG/60, 17 goals, 28 assists, 2 high-danger goals) shoots 9.0%, combining volume and efficiency. Marco Kasper (0.81 xG/60, 7 goals, 8 assists, 1 high-danger goal) adds depth at 6.1%.

    Defensively, Alexander Romanov is New York's weak link; Axel Sandin-Pellikka is Detroit's. Neither team has a goaltending advantage by these numbers. This game hinges on which goaltender plays better.

    Two evenly matched teams on paper. Goaltending decides it.

    What the model said beforehand

    The model's lean

    DET 53%
    53%
    DET
    Model favorite
    47%
    53%
    NYI50DET

    DET by 6 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score NYI 2.5–2.7 DET; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

    Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
    Season rates · 5v5

    Tale of the tape

    NHL stats API · our xG
    NYI← edge
    edge →DET
    48.0%49.0%
    49.0%49.0%
    2.482.38
    2.692.50
    1.781.73
    1.942.07
    0.9930.985

    The season numbers split 3–3 — no clear process edge — and the luck row (0.993 vs 0.985) says NYI has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

    Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
    Form · No games yet
    NYI
    0-0-0
    +0 GD · 0d rest
    DET
    0-0-0
    +0 GD · 0d rest
    0.993
    NYI PDO
    Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
    0.985
    DET PDO
    Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
    What decides it

    Keys to the game

    Things to watch
    • Two evenly matched teams on paper — this one tilts on goaltending.
    Computed danger · scouting

    Players to watch

    NHL stats API · our xG
    NYI
    Anders Lee9G 20A
    1.20 xG/60 · 2 HD · 6.4% sh
    Bo Horvat18G 10A
    0.87 xG/60 · 3 HD · 12.8% sh
    DET
    Alex DeBrincat17G 28A
    0.88 xG/60 · 2 HD · 9.0% sh
    Marco Kasper7G 8A
    0.81 xG/60 · 1 HD · 6.1% sh
    Keep going

    Where to next

    Back to the front page