Red Wings run the Islanders off the ice on the underlying numbers
The Red Wings earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
The underlying story
The Red Wings dominated the underlying metrics but barely won. They controlled 67% of expected goals at 5-on-5 (4.06–1.96), yet their 3–2 victory left a goal on the table.
Goaltending explained the gap. Ilya Sorokin made 18 of 21 saves and overperformed his expected save percentage by 1.06 goals — the difference between a rout and a close game. J. Gibson stopped 16 of 18 shots for Detroit and played at expectation.
Detroit generated far more dangerous chances. The Red Wings' shots averaged 0.065 expected goals each; the Islanders' averaged 0.038. Detroit won the high-danger chances 9–3 and held 54% of shot attempts (21–18 on goal).
Detroit's efficiency was striking in transition. They scored three goals on 28 rush attempts, compared to two on 18 for New York. The Red Wings' power play was dominant: 2 goals on 3 shots, against 0.29 expected goals. New York generated higher-quality looks than their shot total suggested, but both teams wasted four rebound opportunities each.
The danger ladder
DET went 1-for-9 from high danger on 2.53 expected goals — 1.5 left on the table.
Finishing vs expected
NYI finished +0.0 against expected, DET -1.1 — I. Sorokin (NYI) saved 1.1 goals above expected.
Shot diet
Wrist shots carried the volume: NYI went 1-for-15, DET 1-for-12. DET scored 3 of theirs off the rush.
- NYI generated higher-quality looks than the shot total suggests.
- I. Sorokin (NYI) stopped 1.1 goals above expected.
- DET generated far more dangerous chances — 0.065 xG/shot vs 0.038. Quality over quantity.
- DET was lethal off the rush — 3 goals on 28 rush chances.
- NYI was lethal off the rush — 2 goals on 18 rush chances.
- DET created 3 rebound opportunities (0 converted) — crashing the net effectively.
- NYI created 4 rebound opportunities (0 converted) — crashing the net effectively.
- DET power play was dominant — 2 PPG on 3 PP shots (0.29 xG).