The Avalanche stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 4.85–6.09 and won anyway.
The Kraken dominated the expected-goal battle (56% at 5-on-5, 6.09–4.85) and still lost 5-3. That gap between dominance and defeat lives almost entirely with M. Blackwood, who saved 3.09 goals above expected.
Colorado won this through two mechanisms: superior finishing in the high-danger area and a goaltender who refused to let volume matter. The Kraken generated 15 high-danger chances to Colorado's 5—a 3-to-1 advantage in the most dangerous shots. They held 49% of shot attempts with 38–39 on goal, yet still lost. They also generated more dangerous chances per shot (0.083 xG/shot versus Colorado's 0.057). By every measure of offensive volume, the Kraken built a fortress. None of it mattered.
M. Blackwood (35/38 saves, 0.921 SV%) turned away the difference. P. Grubauer, by contrast, was merely above-average (+0.85 vs expected), allowing Colorado's low-danger inefficiency to become actual goals.
Colorado executed ruthlessly in the spots that matter most: they converted 2 of 5 high-danger chances (40%) and scored 3 goals from low-danger positions—the kind that shouldn't survive competent goaltending, yet did. They also found two goals on the rush from 34 chances. Efficiency in transition and the red zone masked their underlying weakness.
The turning point came from N. MacKinnon's backhander from the top of the circles at 19:36. MacKinnon finished with 2 goals and an assist over 23:30. C. Makar added 2 assists in 22:48, and M. Necas contributed 2 assists in 21:16.
The Kraken's loss wasn't about a lack of chances. They underperformed their xG by 3.09 goals—wasted volume. For Seattle, that's the closer that stings most.
