The Maple Leafs earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
The Leafs turned nearly even shot attempts into a 6–3 win through sheer shot quality. Toronto generated 0.108 expected goals per attempt while Pittsburgh managed 0.044—a gap that explains how the Leafs controlled play without dominating shot volume (31–32).
That quality gulf translated to overwhelming expected goals. Toronto held 70% of 5v5 xG (5.92–2.48) and crushed Pittsburgh on high-danger chances (11–2). S. Skinner made 25 saves on 29 shots and stopped 1.9 goals above expected, a night that softened the margin. J. Woll finished 29/32 (0.906 SV%), playing 0.52 goals below expected.
Pittsburgh scored twice from low-danger areas—goals that inflate the total while masking the underlying gap. On the rush, Toronto was lethal: five goals on 29 chances. Pittsburgh converted two of 24 rush attempts, identical efficiency on a smaller sample. William Nylander's wrist shot from the slot (18:36, third period) epitomized the evening—a high-percentage chance cleanly finished.