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Motion-blurred skater in a New York Islanders sweater
← Tue, Dec 23 · the slate
Breakdown · NJD at NYI

D. Rittich stands tall as the Islanders edge the Devils

FinalTue, Dec 23
NJDNew Jersey Devils1NYINew York Islanders2
The verdict · coin flip

The Islanders won a genuine coin flip — neither side controlled the run of play.

NJD 1 · NYI 2
◆ By the ModelJul 11, 9:46 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

D. Rittich's exceptional goaltending, not dominance in play, decided this game. The Islanders won 2-1 despite expected goals suggesting a near-tie (4.76–4.47).

The Islanders controlled 44% of shot attempts (25–32) and high-danger chances (7–8), statistically minimal advantages. xG split 52–48 their way—margin of error territory.

Goaltending was the differentiator. D. Rittich stopped 31 of 32 shots (0.969 SV%, +3.47 vs expected). J. Markstrom stopped 23 of 25 (0.920 SV%, +2.76 vs expected). Both exceeded expectations; D. Rittich's edge was decisive.

S. Holmstrom scored and assisted (1G, 1A in 17:06). A. Pelech converted from a sharp angle at 18:45 in the first. B. Pesce scored the Devils' lone goal (1G in 21:55).

Neither team dominated high-danger chances—the Islanders created 7, the Devils 8. Both went silent on them. The Devils outshot the Islanders 32–25 but couldn't finish; D. Rittich's 0.969 SV% proved the difference.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · Dec 23
NJD
1
NYI
2

D. Rittich stands tall as the Islanders edge the Devils

Chances 4.5 – 4.8Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

Dead even on chances. The Islanders took it anyway.

Expected goals · chance value
NJD
4.47
NYI
4.76
48% of the chances52%

The board read NJD 1, NYI 2. The chances read NJD 4.5, NYI 4.8.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
NYI
−2.8
goals above expected
NYI4.76 expected · 2 scored
Expected
Scored
NJD4.47 expected · 1 scored
Expected
Scored

The Devils left 3.5 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 15:35NJDB. Pesce1–0
  2. P2 12:10NYIS. Holmstrom1–1
  3. P3 18:45NYIA. Pelech1–2
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
NJD
49 shots
1
Final
96 shots
NYI
47 shots
2
NJD attackNYI attack
NJD NYI Goal
49
shots · 1 in
47
shots · 2 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
NJDNYI
0 / 8
1.92 xG
High danger
0 / 7
2.42 xG
0 / 15
1.81 xG
Medium
2 / 15
1.81 xG
1 / 39
0.73 xG
Low
0 / 47
0.53 xG

The Devils went 0 for 8 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
A+
D. Rittich
+3.5
NYI · 31/32
A+
J. Markstrom
+2.8
NJD · 23/25
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

D. Rittich stands tall as the Islanders edge the Devils

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 15–7
  1. 15:35NJDB. Pesce(N. Hischier, D. Mercer)1–0
2ndshots 6–14
  1. 12:10NYIS. Holmstrom1–1
3rdshots 11–4
  1. 18:45NYIA. Pelech(A. Lee, S. Holmstrom)1–2

score reads NJD–NYI

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
4.76
NYI chances
Goals their shots were worth
−2.8
Finishing
Goals below what those chances were worth
1.013
NYI puck luck
About 1.000 — a normal night for bounces
52.7%
Shot attempts
Over half — they had the puck more
Split by club

Who controlled the game

4.47Expected goals4.76
NYI 52% of the chance quality
32Shots on goal25
8High-danger chances7
62All attempts (Corsi)69
Adjusted for score: NJD 46% · NYI 54%
Faceoffs · NYI won40%off41%neu50%def
Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected
High dangerslot & crease
NJD0 / 8 · 1.92 xG
NYI0 / 7 · 2.42 xG
Medium dangermid-range
NJD0 / 15 · 1.81 xG
NYI2 / 15 · 1.81 xG
Low dangerperimeter & point
NJD1 / 39 · 0.73 xG
NYI0 / 47 · 0.53 xG

NYI went 0-for-7 from high danger on 2.42 expected goals — 2.4 left on the table.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual
NJD
1 G · 4.47 xG · -3.5
NYI
2 G · 4.76 xG · -2.8
0123456

NJD finished -3.5 against expected, NYI -2.8.

Source · Backcheck xG model
Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots
NJD
SNAP0/31
BACKHAND0/6
SLAP0/3
TIP IN0/4
WRIST1/3
DEFLECTED0/2
BAT0/0
OTHER0/13
NYI
SNAP0/28
BACKHAND0/6
SLAP1/7
TIP IN0/3
WRIST1/2
DEFLECTED0/0
BAT0/1
OTHER0/22
NJD
NYI
Off the rush
1 G on 30
2.53 xG
1 G on 31
3.06 xG
Off rebounds
0 G on 8
1.35 xG
1 G on 4
0.45 xG

Snap shots carried the volume: NJD went 0-for-31, NYI 0-for-28.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG
Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD
High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi
Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.
Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx
Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO
Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected
J. Markstrom
NJD · 23/25 · .920
+2.8
saved above expected
A+
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger0/72.4+2.4
Medium2/151.8-0.2
Low0/470.5+0.5

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

D. Rittich
NYI · 31/32 · .969
+3.5
saved above expected
A+
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger0/81.9+1.9
Medium0/151.8+1.8
Low1/390.7-0.3

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

96 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates
NJD
49 shots
1
Final
96 shots
NYI
47 shots
2
NJD attackNYI attack
NJD NYI Goal

Each club shoots toward its own end — NJD left, NYI right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first
Three stars · computed, not voted
S. Holmstrom
#10 · R · NYI
1 G · 1 A · 1 SOG · 17:06 on ice · +2
A. Pelech
#3 · D · NYI
1 G · 0 A · 1 SOG · 23:12 on ice
B. Pesce
#22 · D · NJD
1 G · 0 A · 5 SOG · 21:55 on ice · +1
Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Tue, Dec 23
Open the pre-game read
Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelJul 11, 9:44 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects a 2.6–2.6 tie, with the Islanders carrying 51% win probability. This is about as close to a pick'em as you'll find.

New Jersey dominates possession at 5v5—50.0% xG%, 51.0% Corsi%—but the Islanders' PDO of 0.993 versus the Devils' 0.971 reveals the luck divide. New Jersey is running cold and has regression upside.

Timo Meier leads the Devils at 1.08 xG/60, with 13 goals and 15 assists, including 3 high-danger goals on 6.7% shooting. Jack Hughes pairs 0.88 xG/60 with 18 goals and 17 assists, shooting at 11.5%. For the Islanders, Anders Lee tops the board at 1.20 xG/60—highest on the ice—with 9 goals, 20 assists, and 2 high-danger conversions on 6.4% shooting. Bo Horvat adds 0.87 xG/60, 18 goals, 10 assists, 3 high-danger goals, and a 12.8% shooting rate.

New Jersey's defensive liability is Johnathan Kovacevic; Alexander Romanov represents the same weak link for the Islanders. At a tie like this, that's where the game lives.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

NYI 51%
51%
NYI
Model favorite
49%
51%
NJD50NYI

NYI by 2 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score NJD 2.6–2.6 NYI; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG
NJD← edge
edge →NYI
50.0%48.0%
51.0%49.0%
2.452.48
2.502.69
1.661.78
2.231.94
0.9710.993

The season numbers split 3–3 — no clear process edge — and the luck row (0.971 vs 0.993) says NYI has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · No games yet
NJD
0-0-0
+0 GD · 0d rest
NYI
0-0-0
+0 GD · 0d rest
0.971
NJD PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.993
NYI PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it

Keys to the game

Regression watch
  • The Devils' PDO is 0.971 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Things to watch
  • The Devils' PDO is 0.971 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG
NJD
Timo Meier13G 15A
1.08 xG/60 · 3 HD · 6.7% sh
Jack Hughes18G 17A
0.88 xG/60 · 1 HD · 11.5% sh
NYI
Anders Lee9G 20A
1.20 xG/60 · 2 HD · 6.4% sh
Bo Horvat18G 10A
0.87 xG/60 · 3 HD · 12.8% sh
Keep going

Where to next

Back to the front page