The Blue Jackets earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
Columbus dominated the xG battle (3.31–2.71) and won 4-1, but the real mismatch was Ottawa's shot volume without the finishing: the Senators held 56% of attempts (28–22) yet trailed by three. They were active, not dangerous.
Ottawa's problem wasn't quantity—it was quality and execution. The Senators generated 5 high-danger chances to Columbus's 3, but finished just one goal. Worse: they underperformed their xG by 1.71 goals, leaving goalscoring opportunities on the table. J. Greaves (CBJ) saved 1.71 goals above expected; L. Meriläinen (OTT) yielded 0.69 below. The goaltending split was decisive.
Columbus converted efficiently. They had 0.070 xG per shot versus Ottawa's 0.045—a 55% edge in quality per chance. They scored two goals from low-danger spots, both plays any opposing goalie must stop. Their rush game was clinical: 2 goals on 21 chances, the kind of efficiency that sinks teams.
Kirill Marchenko's snap shot from the high slot (P3, 15:54) swung momentum early. D. Severson (1G, 1A in 18:41) drove the attack, while C. Coyle and C. Sillinger each picked up two assists—CBJ's depth made the difference.
Ottawa played a volume game and lost the quality game. That's a gap no shot count closes.
