The Predators stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 3.17–4.42 and won anyway.
Vegas dominated the expected-goal battle, 4.42–3.17 (58% of the xG), and lost 4–2. That's the whole story.
The margin lay in goaltending. Vegas commanded 62% of shot attempts (31–19) and matched Nashville on high-danger chances (6–6). But J. Annunen saved 2.42 goals above expected while A. Schmid surrendered 0.83—a swing that erased Vegas's advantages.
Michael Bunting's tip-in at 11:52 of the second period was the inflection point. Nashville converted from low-danger areas and thrived on the rush (3 goals on 24 chances), a directness that Vegas couldn't match. Vegas created five rebound opportunities and converted zero.
The power play accelerated Nashville's lead: 2 goals on 11 shots with 0.80 xG. Vegas controlled the volume—possession, shot attempts, expected goals—but J. Annunen's 0.935 save percentage rendered it moot.
A. Schmid was flawless on high-danger attempts (6-for-6) but bled four goals from the perimeter. Vegas dominated on paper yet lost to the goaltender across the line.
