The Devils stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 3.21–5.01 and won anyway.
New Jersey beat Columbus 3–2 despite losing the xG battle 5.01–3.21. Columbus controlled 61% of the expected goals—this was a theft.
The Blue Jackets dominated the metrics across the board. They held 52% of shot attempts (35–33), created six high-danger chances to New Jersey's four, and generated the scoring opportunities that should have won them this game. Yet they left empty-handed, undone by both misfortune and precision from the opposite end.
Columbus underperformed their xG by 3.01 goals. That is the margin of defeat in a game where they were the better team. J. Greaves made 30 of 33 saves (0.909 SV%), a respectable outing that masked his team's execution in front of the net.
J. Allen was the difference. The New Jersey netminder stopped 33 of 35 shots (0.943 SV%), posting a +3.01 performance against expected goals. Against the run of play, he was exceptional.
The turning point crystallized early in the third. L. Hughes unleashed a snap shot from the high slot at 4:45—the kind of chance that rarely beats a hot goalie, but this time it did. That goal shifted momentum in a game Columbus should have controlled.
New Jersey capitalized on transition. The Devils scored three goals on 27 rush chances, converting movement into results. Columbus generated nine rebound opportunities versus five for New Jersey, but converting twice was not enough against such superior shot creation.
This was not a matter of luck. Columbus simply did not bury their chances, and Allen elevated to steal a win his team had no right to take.
