The Penguins earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
Pittsburgh controlled the play so thoroughly that a 5-4 overtime result feels generous to Columbus — the Penguins owned 64% of 5v5 expected goals (4.63–2.64), a gap that should have buried the Blue Jackets.
What kept the game close was simple variance. The Blue Jackets overperformed their xG by 1.36 goals, scoring three times from low-danger spots that goaltenders are expected to stop. Against that luck, A. Silovs underperformed, surrendering 1.36 more goals than his workload deserved; his 0.840 SV% on 25 shots masks how thoroughly Pittsburgh controlled the ice. J. Greaves, meanwhile, delivered (0.884 SV%), but his team never generated enough possessions to cash in.
The possession gap told the full story: Columbus managed 37% of shot attempts (25–43), a stranglehold that explained the offensive drought. Pittsburgh was ruthless on transition, converting three rushes from 39 attempts — the kind of efficiency that closes games. Their power play was dominant too, going 2-for-13 (0.52 xG).
Sidney Crosby ended it with a backhander from the doorstep at 02:22 of overtime.