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Motion-blurred skater in a Carolina Hurricanes sweater
← Sun, Jan 4 · the slate
Breakdown · CAR at NJD

B. Bussi stands tall as the Hurricanes edge the Devils

FinalSun, Jan 4
CARCarolina Hurricanes3NJDNew Jersey Devils1
The verdict · coin flip

The Hurricanes won a genuine coin flip — neither side controlled the run of play.

CAR 3 · NJD 1
◆ By the ModelJul 11, 11:15 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Hurricanes defeated the Devils 3-1 in a game the underlying numbers called essentially even. Expected goals finished 3.87–3.95, a 50-50 split masked by a two-goal final margin.

The Devils held 49% of shot attempts and led 7–5 in high-danger chances—better pressure, no reward. B. Bussi was the reason. He posted 28 saves on 29 shots (0.966 SV%) while stopping 2.87 goals above expected. J. Allen kept New Jersey competitive with 27 saves (0.931 SV%) and +1.95 above expected, turning away all five high-danger chances he faced.

Carolina won on execution, not dominance. The Hurricanes were inefficient in tight, scoring on only one high-danger chance. On the rush, however, they were precise: two goals from 23 attempts. The Devils generated six rebound chances and capitalized on none. Carolina did the same but converted once.

Logan Stankoven's wrist shot from the slot (P3, 12:16) was the pivotal moment. T. Hall recorded 1G, 1A in 15:07. For New Jersey, D. Mercer scored in 18:58, and J. Siegenthaler added an assist in 19:04.

New Jersey underperformed their xG by 2.87 goals—a profound miss. Carolina underperformed by 0.95. In a game balanced on the underlying edge, goaltending decided who left with two points.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · Jan 4
CAR
3
NJD
1

B. Bussi stands tall as the Hurricanes edge the Devils

Chances 4.0 – 3.9Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

Dead even on chances. The Hurricanes took it anyway.

Expected goals · chance value
CAR
3.95
NJD
3.87
51% of the chances50%

The board read CAR 3, NJD 1. The chances read CAR 4.0, NJD 3.9.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
CAR
−0.9
goals above expected
CAR3.95 expected · 3 scored
Expected
Scored
NJD3.87 expected · 1 scored
Expected
Scored

The Devils left 2.9 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 00:51CARN. Ehlers1–0
  2. P1 07:34NJDD. Mercer1–1
  3. P2 07:47CART. Hall2–1
  4. P3 12:16CARL. Stankoven3–1
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
CAR
41 shots
3
Final
83 shots
NJD
42 shots
1
CAR attackNJD attack
CAR NJD Goal
41
shots · 3 in
42
shots · 1 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
CARNJD
0 / 5
1.42 xG
High danger
1 / 7
1.57 xG
3 / 18
2.10 xG
Medium
0 / 16
1.72 xG
0 / 28
0.43 xG
Low
0 / 37
0.58 xG

High-danger looks: CAR 0 of 5, NJD 1 of 7.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
A+
B. Bussi
+2.9
CAR · 28/29
A
J. Allen
+1.9
NJD · 27/29
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

B. Bussi stands tall as the Hurricanes edge the Devils

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 16–8
  1. 00:51CARN. Ehlers1–0
  2. 07:34NJDD. Mercer(A. Gritsyuk, J. Siegenthaler)1–1
2ndshots 9–6
  1. 07:47CART. Hall2–1
3rdshots 5–15
  1. 12:16CARL. Stankoven(T. Hall)3–1

score reads CAR–NJD

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
3.95
CAR chances
Goals their shots were worth
−0.9
Finishing
Goals below what those chances were worth
1.042
CAR puck luck
Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way
45.9%
Shot attempts
Under half — they were outshot
Split by club

Who controlled the game

3.95Expected goals3.87
CAR 51% of the chance quality
30Shots on goal29
5High-danger chances7
51All attempts (Corsi)60
Adjusted for score: CAR 43% · NJD 57%
Faceoffs · NJD won52%off50%neu28%def
Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected
High dangerslot & crease
CAR0 / 5 · 1.42 xG
NJD1 / 7 · 1.57 xG
Medium dangermid-range
CAR3 / 18 · 2.10 xG
NJD0 / 16 · 1.72 xG
Low dangerperimeter & point
CAR0 / 28 · 0.43 xG
NJD0 / 37 · 0.58 xG

NJD went 0-for-16 from medium danger on 1.72 expected goals — 1.7 left on the table.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual
CAR
3 G · 3.95 xG · -0.9
NJD
1 G · 3.87 xG · -2.9
012345

CAR finished -0.9 against expected, NJD -2.9.

Source · Backcheck xG model
Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots
CAR
WRIST1/19
SNAP0/6
SLAP0/4
BACKHAND0/4
TIP IN0/3
DEFLECTED0/2
POKE1/2
OTHER1/11
NJD
WRIST1/10
SNAP0/11
SLAP0/7
BACKHAND0/6
TIP IN0/6
DEFLECTED0/2
POKE0/0
OTHER0/18
CAR
NJD
Off the rush
2 G on 23
2.40 xG
1 G on 21
1.80 xG
Off rebounds
1 G on 6
0.93 xG
0 G on 6
0.93 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: CAR went 1-for-19, NJD 1-for-10. CAR scored 2 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG
Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD
High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi
Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.
Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx
Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO
Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected
B. Bussi
CAR · 28/29 · .966
+2.9
saved above expected
A+
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger1/71.6+0.6
Medium0/161.7+1.7
Low0/370.6+0.6

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

J. Allen
NJD · 27/29 · .931
+1.9
saved above expected
A
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger0/51.4+1.4
Medium3/182.1-0.9
Low0/280.4+0.4

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

83 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates
CAR
41 shots
3
Final
83 shots
NJD
42 shots
1
CAR attackNJD attack
CAR NJD Goal

Each club shoots toward its own end — CAR left, NJD right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first
Three stars · computed, not voted
T. Hall
#71 · L · CAR
1 G · 1 A · 4 SOG · 15:07 on ice · +1
J. Siegenthaler
#71 · D · NJD
0 G · 1 A · 0 SOG · 19:04 on ice
D. Mercer
#91 · C · NJD
1 G · 0 A · 2 SOG · 18:58 on ice · -1
Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Sun, Jan 4
Open the pre-game read
Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelJul 11, 11:32 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects a 2.7–2.5 Carolina victory with the Hurricanes at 54% win probability. This is betting's way of saying: pick either team and you're roughly right.

The Hurricanes own the underlying play. They generate 56.0% of expected goals at 5v5 and control 60.0% of shots (Corsi), which should translate to territorial dominance. New Jersey manages 50.0% xG and 51.0% Corsi — solid but unspectacular, and they'll spend the night chasing the play.

Both teams are running cold at the micro level. Carolina's PDO sits at 0.984; New Jersey's at 0.971. When actual results diverge this far from expected shot quality, positive regression typically follows. The Devils have more ground to make up.

The goaltending equation tilts Carolina's way. J. Markstrom takes this game on a back-to-back — monitor whether he starts or sits for a rest. A tired starter or backup appearance could flatten the Hurricanes' edge.

Carolina's scoring is distributed across two key threats. Jackson Blake generates 1.06 expected goals per 60 minutes and has 14 goals on 10.9% shooting, with 2 high-danger goals. Seth Jarvis sits at 0.98 xG/60 with 17 goals and 1 high-danger goal on 11.9% shooting. That's volume and efficiency from both wings. New Jersey can't shut both down simultaneously.

The Devils counter with Timo Meier (1.08 xG/60, 13 goals, 3 high-danger goals on 6.7% shooting) and Jack Hughes (0.88 xG/60, 18 goals on 11.5% shooting). Meier is the more dangerous even-strength creator; Hughes is the volume scorer who's hitting at a clip that suggests some down-variance coming. Carolina's defensive weak spot is Charles Alexis Legault. New Jersey's is Johnathan Kovacevic. Both will see targeted attention.

Neither team has converted high-danger chances into secondary (rebound/cleanup) goals at notable rates this season — both sit at 0% — which suggests their scoring is coming from primary chances and perimeter work. This favors the team that creates from distance, which is Carolina given the Corsi edge.

The gap in underlying metrics (6 percentage points in Corsi, 6 in xG) would ordinarily point decisively to Carolina. But 54% win probability isn't a lock; it's a reflection that goaltending variance and chance variance genuinely could swing this. The Hurricanes should win the possession battle. Whether they win the game is closer to a coin flip.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

CAR 54%
54%
CAR
Model favorite
54%
46%
CAR50NJD

CAR by 8 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score CAR 2.7–2.5 NJD; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG
CAR← edge
edge →NJD
56.0%50.0%
60.0%51.0%
2.982.45
2.312.50
2.261.66
1.952.23
0.9840.971

CAR holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.984 vs 0.971) says CAR has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
CAR
5-4-1
-3 GD · 2d rest
NJD
5-4-1
+0 GD · 1d rest
0.984
CAR PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.971
NJD PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it

Keys to the game

Where the edges live
  • The Hurricanes own the underlying play — 56.0% 5v5 xG vs 50.0%.
  • The Hurricanes drive Corsi at 60.0% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
  • The Devils' PDO is 0.971 — running cold, due for positive regression.
  • The Hurricanes' PDO is 0.984 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Things to watch
  • The Hurricanes own the underlying play — 56.0% 5v5 xG vs 50.0%.
  • The Hurricanes drive Corsi at 60.0% — expect territorial tilt.
  • J. Markstrom is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
  • The Devils' PDO is 0.971 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score
CAR
Expected in goal
B. Bussi
2 days rest.727 last start
Backup Brandon Bussi · +2.8 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

NJD
Expected in goal
J. Markstrom
back-to-back.968 last start
Backup Jacob Markstrom · -11.9 GSAx this season
Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG
CAR
Jackson Blake14G 19A
1.06 xG/60 · 2 HD · 10.9% sh
Seth Jarvis17G 12A
0.98 xG/60 · 1 HD · 11.9% sh
NJD
Timo Meier13G 15A
1.08 xG/60 · 3 HD · 6.7% sh
Jack Hughes18G 17A
0.88 xG/60 · 1 HD · 11.5% sh
Keep going

Where to next

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