The Kraken won a genuine coin flip — neither side controlled the run of play.
Expected goals predicted a toss-up—4.31–4.23 favoring Calgary—yet Seattle won 5-1. That four-goal scoreline wasn't written in the underlying play; it was goaltending and shot quality that created the gulf.
P. Grubauer stopped 3.31 goals above expected, turning an even xG split into a rout. He posted 0.976 SV% on 42 shots, perfect on high-danger chances (5-for-5). D. Wolf absorbed the variance: 0.852 SV%, victim of superior shot quality.
Calgary owned volume—60% of shot attempts (42–28)—but volume meant little. Their xG per shot (0.056) lagged Seattle's (0.086). In high-danger situations, the pattern crystallized: Calgary was 0 for 5; Seattle generated 10. On the rush, Seattle was clinical (2 goals on 22 chances). Rebound opportunities told a parallel story: Calgary found 4 (1 converted); Seattle found 6 (2 converted).
Matty Beniers's wrist shot from the slot (P3, 17:39) marked the turning point—confirming that Seattle's efficiency would overwhelm Calgary's volume.
