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Motion-blurred skater in a Nashville Predators sweater
← Thu, Jan 8 · the slate
Breakdown · NYI at NSH

J. Saros stands tall as the Predators edge the Islanders

Final / OTThu, Jan 8
NYINew York Islanders1NSHNashville Predators2
The verdict · coin flip

The Predators won a genuine coin flip — neither side controlled the run of play.

NYI 1 · NSH 2
◆ By the ModelJul 12, 12:47 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Islanders generated nearly as much scoring chance as the Predators—3.76 expected goals to 3.92—yet underperformed that output by 2.76 goals. That magnitude of futility, even in a close expected goals contest, should have decided the game decisively. Nashville won 2-1 in a shootout, but the true story was two teams that squandered their chances and two goalies who rose to meet the moment.

J. Saros saved 30 of 31 shots for a 0.968 save percentage, running 2.76 goals better than expected. D. Rittich matched him with 26 of 27 saves, a 0.963 save percentage, and a 2.92 over-expectation. The Preds built their advantage through efficiency: 27 shots on goal yielded 3.92 expected goals, while the Islanders needed 31 shots to reach 3.76.

Both teams created scoring opportunities they couldn't finish. The Islanders crashed the net effectively, earning three rebound chances and matching Nashville 7-7 on high-danger attempts. The Predators went scoreless on all seven high-danger chances, which won't happen often. Both played finesse where they needed force.

Filip Forsberg decided the shootout with a backhander from the slot—the kind of moment that feels inevitable in hindsight but requires both execution and luck. By regulation, he'd been peripheral; in the decisive instant, he delivered.

  • #13 M. Barzal (NYI) — 1A in 24:51
  • #90 R. O'Reilly (NSH) — 1G in 23:52
  • #24 S. Mayfield (NYI) — 1A in 17:01
The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · SO · Jan 8
NYI
1
NSH
2

J. Saros stands tall as the Predators edge the Islanders

Chances 3.8 – 3.9Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

Dead even on chances. The Predators took it anyway.

Expected goals · chance value
NYI
3.76
NSH
3.92
49% of the chances51%

The board read NYI 1, NSH 2. The chances read NYI 3.8, NSH 3.9.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
NSH
−1.9
goals above expected
NSH3.92 expected · 2 scored
Expected
Scored
NYI3.76 expected · 1 scored
Expected
Scored

The Islanders left 2.8 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P2 12:14NYIS. Holmstrom1–0
  2. P2 19:19NSHR. O'ReillySH1–1
  3. SO 00:00NSHF. ForsbergPP1–1
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
NYI
45 shots
1
Final
95 shots
NSH
50 shots
2
NYI attackNSH attack
NYI NSH Goal
45
shots · 1 in
50
shots · 2 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
NYINSH
1 / 7
1.62 xG
High danger
0 / 7
1.77 xG
0 / 14
1.55 xG
Medium
1 / 14
1.60 xG
0 / 38
0.59 xG
Low
0 / 50
0.55 xG

High-danger looks: NYI 1 of 7, NSH 0 of 7.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
A+
D. Rittich
+2.9
NYI · 26/27
A+
J. Saros
+2.8
NSH · 30/31
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

J. Saros stands tall as the Predators edge the Islanders

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 10–10no goals
    2ndshots 9–9
    1. 12:14NYIS. Holmstrom(S. Mayfield, M. Barzal)1–0
    2. 19:19NSHR. O'Reillyshorthanded(C. Smith)1–1
    3rdshots 7–7no goals
      OTshots 5–1no goals
        SO
        1. 00:00NSHF. Forsbergpower play1–1

        score reads NYI–NSH

        Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
        Process vs result

        The numbers

        XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
        3.92
        NSH chances
        Goals their shots were worth
        −1.9
        Finishing
        Goals below what those chances were worth
        0.997
        NSH puck luck
        About 1.000 — a normal night for bounces
        54.6%
        Shot attempts
        Over half — they had the puck more
        Split by club

        Who controlled the game

        3.76Expected goals3.92
        NSH 51% of the chance quality
        31Shots on goal27
        7High-danger chances7
        59All attempts (Corsi)71
        Adjusted for score: NYI 45% · NSH 55%
        Faceoffs · NSH won61%off36%neu54%def
        Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
        How the game was won

        The danger ladder

        shotsgoalsexpected
        High dangerslot & crease
        NYI1 / 7 · 1.62 xG
        NSH0 / 7 · 1.77 xG
        Medium dangermid-range
        NYI0 / 14 · 1.55 xG
        NSH1 / 14 · 1.60 xG
        Low dangerperimeter & point
        NYI0 / 38 · 0.59 xG
        NSH0 / 50 · 0.55 xG

        NSH went 0-for-7 from high danger on 1.77 expected goals — 1.8 left on the table.

        Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
        The luck layer

        Finishing vs expected

        expectedactual
        NYI
        1 G · 3.76 xG · -2.8
        NSH
        2 G · 3.92 xG · -1.9
        012345

        NYI finished -2.8 against expected, NSH -1.9.

        Source · Backcheck xG model
        Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
        What they shot — and what went in

        Shot diet

        goalsshots
        NYI
        WRIST1/23
        SNAP0/10
        SLAP0/3
        TIP IN0/2
        BACKHAND0/2
        WRAP AROUND0/1
        BAT0/1
        OTHER0/17
        NSH
        WRIST1/27
        SNAP0/2
        SLAP0/9
        TIP IN0/5
        BACKHAND0/4
        WRAP AROUND0/0
        BAT0/0
        OTHER0/24
        NYI
        NSH
        Off the rush
        1 G on 27
        2.95 xG
        1 G on 27
        2.93 xG
        Off rebounds
        0 G on 3
        0.40 xG
        0 G on 2
        0.48 xG

        Wrist shots carried the volume: NYI went 1-for-23, NSH 1-for-27.

        Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
        New to these numbers?

        Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

        The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

        xG
        Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
        HD
        High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
        Corsi
        Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
        Adj.
        Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
        GSAx
        Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
        PDO
        Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
        Shot by shot

        In the net

        Graded on goals saved above expected
        D. Rittich
        NYI · 26/27 · .963
        +2.9
        saved above expected
        A+
        the night
        By dangerG/attxGsaved
        High danger0/71.8+1.8
        Medium1/141.6+0.6
        Low0/500.6+0.6

        A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

        J. Saros
        NSH · 30/31 · .968
        +2.8
        saved above expected
        A+
        the night
        By dangerG/attxGsaved
        High danger1/71.6+0.6
        Medium0/141.6+1.6
        Low0/380.6+0.6

        A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

        95 shots · press play to watch the game back

        Where the shots came from

        NHL play-by-play coordinates
        NYI
        45 shots
        1
        Final
        95 shots
        NSH
        50 shots
        2
        NYI attackNSH attack
        NYI NSH Goal

        Each club shoots toward its own end — NYI left, NSH right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

        Ranked from the box score

        Three stars

        Points first
        Three stars · computed, not voted
        M. Barzal
        #13 · C · NYI
        0 G · 1 A · 2 SOG · 24:51 on ice
        R. O'Reilly
        #90 · C · NSH
        1 G · 0 A · 1 SOG · 23:52 on ice
        S. Mayfield
        #24 · D · NYI
        0 G · 1 A · 0 SOG · 17:01 on ice · +1
        Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
        What the model said beforehand

        Before the game

        Written Thu, Jan 8
        Open the pre-game read
        Written from the numbers

        The read

        Edited for clarity
        ◆ By the ModelJul 11, 11:55 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

        The model projects a NYI 2.5-2.7 NSH game with the Predators at 53% win probability. This is about as close to a pick'em as you'll find.

        The 5v5 advantage belongs to Nashville. The Predators own 49.0% xG and 50.0% Corsi compared to the Islanders' 48.0% xG and 49.0% Corsi. Neither team has squeezed much efficiency gain from their possession—both sport near-identical PDO (NSH 0.992, NYI 0.993), meaning luck hasn't tilted either way yet.

        Both goalies arrive fatigued. J. Saros and I. Sorokin are each on back-to-backs, raising the odds of a backup start or a tired starter who struggles to locate his rhythm in close situations.

        The Islanders' offensive punch centers on Anders Lee and Bo Horvat. Lee has generated 1.20 xG/60 and reached 9G 20A with 2 high-danger goals and a 6.4% shooting rate. Horvat sits at 0.87 xG/60 with 18G 10A, three high-danger markers, and a 12.8% shooting clip that suggests he's converting above his underlying volume. Neutralizing Lee becomes Nashville's defensive priority; how well the Predators execute that assignment may decide the game.

        Nashville counters with Filip Forsberg and Zachary L'Heureux. Forsberg has buried 23G on 13.6% shooting and logged 4 high-danger goals alongside 0.80 xG/60—he's punching well above his shot volume. L'Heureux carries 0.85 xG/60 and a startling 16.0% shooting rate across just 4 goals, suggesting regression risk or hot-hand variance. Either way, both are primed to threaten a tired Islanders defense.

        The tactical vulnerability for each team lies along the blue line. Alexander Romanov represents NYI's defensive weak link. Jonathan Marchessault fills that role for the Predators. A team that can exploit these gaps—and punish sloppy entries—holds the edge.

        Neither offense has found a high-danger or rebound-goal advantage; both sit at 0% in those categories. This will be decided by first-chance efficiency and puck management, not volume. With both starters gassed and both defenses exposed, the winner may simply be whoever executes cleaner hockey in the third period.

        What the model said beforehand

        The model's lean

        NSH 53%
        53%
        NSH
        Model favorite
        47%
        53%
        NYI50NSH

        NSH by 6 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score NYI 2.5–2.7 NSH; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

        Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
        Season rates · 5v5

        Tale of the tape

        NHL stats API · our xG
        NYI← edge
        edge →NSH
        48.0%49.0%
        49.0%50.0%
        2.482.48
        2.692.58
        1.781.84
        1.942.21
        0.9930.992

        NSH holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.993 vs 0.992) says NYI has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

        Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
        Form · Last 10
        NYI
        5-4-1
        +2 GD · 1d rest
        NSH
        6-4-0
        -3 GD · 1d rest
        0.993
        NYI PDO
        Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
        0.992
        NSH PDO
        Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
        What decides it

        Keys to the game

        Things to watch
        • J. Saros is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
        • I. Sorokin is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
        Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

        Lineups

        NHL box score
        NYI
        Expected in goal
        I. Sorokin
        back-to-back1.000 last start
        Backup Ilya Sorokin · +25.3 GSAx this season
        Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

        No completed game on file for this club yet.

        NSH
        Expected in goal
        J. Saros
        back-to-back.860 last start
        Backup Juuse Saros · -9.3 GSAx this season
        Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

        No completed game on file for this club yet.

        Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

        Computed danger · scouting

        Players to watch

        NHL stats API · our xG
        NYI
        Anders Lee9G 20A
        1.20 xG/60 · 2 HD · 6.4% sh
        Bo Horvat18G 10A
        0.87 xG/60 · 3 HD · 12.8% sh
        NSH
        Zachary L'Heureux4G 0A
        0.85 xG/60 · 1 HD · 16.0% sh
        Filip Forsberg23G 17A
        0.80 xG/60 · 4 HD · 13.6% sh
        Keep going

        Where to next

        Back to the front page