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Breakdown · NYR at BOS

Bruins pull away from the Rangers

FinalSat, Jan 10

The verdict · earned

The Bruins earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

NYR 2 · BOS 10

◆ By the ModelJul 12, 12:03 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Bruins beat the Rangers 10-2, but the underlying play was far tighter—expected goals favored Boston just 4.66–3.93, a 54–46 split that almost never produces a nine-goal scoreline.

Boston's attack was clinical. The Bruins converted at a 43% rate on high-danger chances (3 of 7) and added 8 goals off the rush. That efficiency gap explains the disconnect: the Rangers created as many high-danger chances (7) but scored on none of their rebound opportunities. Boston's 5.34-goal overperformance of expected goals versus New York's 1.93-goal underperformance made the difference.

Goaltending sealed the result. J. Swayman (BOS) was +1.93 against expected—a genuine steal. J. Quick (NYR) faced 20 shots on goal and stopped just 14, posting a 0.700 save percentage, which was 3.26 goals worse than expectation. S. Martin relieved and also struggled, allowing 2.08 more than expected. When the Rangers needed a stop, Swayman delivered; when the Bruins attacked, Quick faltered. Marat Khusnutdinov's tip-in from the high slot at 18:31 of the third period marked the turning point.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page

Final · Jan 10

NYR

BOS

Bruins pull away from the Rangers

Chances 3.9 – 4.7Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

The Bruins earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value

NYR

3.93

BOS

4.66

46% of the chances54%

The board read NYR 2, BOS 10. The chances read NYR 3.9, BOS 4.7.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

BOS

+5.3

goals above expected

BOS4.66 expected · 10 scored

Expected

Scored

NYR3.93 expected · 2 scored

Expected

Scored

The Bruins scored 5.3 more than their chances were worth. That does not repeat.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

Every goal, in order

P1 01:24NYRM. Zibanejad1–0
P1 02:31BOSM. Khusnutdinov1–1
P1 07:16BOSP. Zacha1–2
P1 19:27BOSP. ZachaPP1–3
P2 02:12BOSF. Minten1–4
P2 06:41BOSM. Khusnutdinov1–5
P2 11:26BOSP. Zacha1–6

+5 more on the full breakdown

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

NYR

46 shots

Final

100 shots

BOS

54 shots

NYR BOS GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

shots · 2 in

shots · 10 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

NYRBOS

1 / 7

1.82 xG

High danger

3 / 7

1.57 xG

0 / 13

1.44 xG

Medium

6 / 22

2.40 xG

1 / 40

0.67 xG

Low

1 / 34

0.69 xG

The Bruins buried 3 of 7 high-danger looks.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

J. Swayman

+1.9

BOS · 27/29

S. Martin

+0.7

NYR · 10/14

+1 more on the full breakdown

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

Bruins pull away from the Rangers

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 08 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 6–13

01:24NYRM. Zibanejad(A. Panarin, M. Robertson)1–0
02:31BOSM. Khusnutdinov(D. Pastrnak, H. Jokiharju)1–1
07:16BOSP. Zacha(C. McAvoy)1–2
19:27BOSP. Zachapower play(E. Lindholm, D. Pastrnak)1–3

2ndshots 8–9

02:12BOSF. Minten(V. Arvidsson, A. Steeves)1–4
06:41BOSM. Khusnutdinov(D. Pastrnak, E. Lindholm)1–5
11:26BOSP. Zacha(C. Mittelstadt)1–6
14:04NYRJ. Millerpower play(M. Zibanejad, V. Trocheck)2–6
15:47BOSC. McAvoy(D. Pastrnak, J. Aspirot)2–7

3rdshots 15–12

03:51BOSM. Khusnutdinov(D. Pastrnak, N. Zadorov)2–8
11:26BOSF. Minten(D. Pastrnak, M. Khusnutdinov)2–9
18:31BOSM. Khusnutdinov(H. Jokiharju, F. Minten)2–10

score reads NYR–BOS

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

4.66

BOS chances

Goals their shots were worth

+5.3

Finishing

Goals above what those chances were worth

1.125

BOS puck luck

Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way

51.2%

Shot attempts

Over half — they had the puck more

Split by club

Who controlled the game

3.93Expected goals4.66

BOS 54% of the chance quality

29Shots on goal34

7High-danger chances7

60All attempts (Corsi)63

Adjusted for score: NYR 55% · BOS 45%

Faceoffs · BOS won39%off54%neu53%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

NYR1 / 7 · 1.82 xG

BOS3 / 7 · 1.57 xG

Medium dangermid-range

NYR0 / 13 · 1.44 xG

BOS6 / 22 · 2.40 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

NYR1 / 40 · 0.67 xG

BOS1 / 34 · 0.69 xG

BOS went 6-for-22 from medium danger on 2.40 expected goals — 3.6 above expected.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

NYR

2 G · 3.93 xG · -1.9

BOS

10 G · 4.66 xG · +5.3

01234567891011

NYR finished -1.9 against expected, BOS +5.3.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

NYR

WRIST1/23

SNAP0/4

SLAP1/6

TIP IN0/6

BACKHAND0/6

BAT0/1

WRAP AROUND0/0

OTHER0/14

BOS

WRIST0/20

SNAP8/16

SLAP0/9

TIP IN2/6

BACKHAND0/2

BAT0/0

WRAP AROUND0/1

OTHER0/9

NYR

BOS

Off the rush

1 G on 27

2.63 xG

8 G on 38

3.14 xG

Off rebounds

0 G on 6

1.00 xG

1 G on 6

0.73 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: NYR went 1-for-23, BOS 0-for-20. BOS scored 8 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

J. Quick

NYR · 14/20 · .700

-1.3

saved above expected

D-

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger3/71.6-1.4

Medium6/222.4-3.6

Low1/340.7-0.3

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

S. Martin

NYR · 10/14 · .714

+0.7

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger3/71.6-1.4

Medium6/222.4-3.6

Low1/340.7-0.3

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

J. Swayman

BOS · 27/29 · .931

+1.9

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger1/71.8+0.8

Medium0/131.4+1.4

Low1/400.7-0.3

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

100 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

NYR

46 shots

Final

100 shots

BOS

54 shots

NYR BOS GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Each club shoots toward its own end — NYR left, BOS right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

D. Pastrnak

#88 · R · BOS

0 G · 6 A · 5 SOG · 19:26 on ice · +5

M. Khusnutdinov

#92 · C · BOS

4 G · 1 A · 4 SOG · 15:34 on ice · +6

F. Minten

#93 · C · BOS

2 G · 1 A · 4 SOG · 17:19 on ice · +4

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Sat, Jan 10

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity

◆ By the ModelJul 12, 12:01 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects a 2.5-2.5 game with Boston at 51% win probability. This is about as close to a pick'em as you'll find.

Both teams converge on identical underlying metrics: Rangers 48.0% xG%, Bruins 47.0%; Corsi% splits evenly at 49.0% for each. The statistical separation comes via execution variance. Boston's PDO of 1.023 is running hot — both shooting and save percentage above expected — while New York's 1.009 sits neutral. Expect some regression from the Bruins' luck metrics.

Recent form complicates the picture. Boston is underwater at -10 goal differential over their last 10 games, a concerning counter to their model edge. Both J. Korpisalo and J. Quick start on back-to-backs, adding uncertainty about game condition and potential backup scenarios.

The forward matchup tilts toward Boston. Viktor Arvidsson operates at the league's higher tier: 1.04 xG/60, 18G 24A, 13.0% shooting, 2 hard-danger goals. New York counters with Gabe Perreault's steadier output — 0.79 xG/60, 8G 11A, 13.1% shooting, 2 hard-danger goals — plus Adam Sykora's secondary threat at 0.91 xG/60 with 3G 1A. Sykora's 20.0% shooting rate is unsustainable; downward variance is likely. Boston's secondary scoring flows through Tanner Jeannot: 0.75 xG/60, 6G 14A, 2 hard-danger goals, 8.3% shooting.

Defensively, neither team excels at converting high-danger chances or offensive rebounds — both sit at 0% on each metric, signaling tight structure on both sides. New York's weakness is Vincent Iorio; Boston's is Elias Lindholm. The team that exploits those soft spots rather than chasing elite forwards likely controls outcomes.

This is a genuine coin flip because the tension is real. Boston's hot goaltending and Arvidsson's elite production offset New York's balanced depth and lower regression risk. Lean Bruins if Arvidsson stays healthy. Lean Rangers if Sykora's shooting normalizes. For neutral money, this is pick'em.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

BOS 51%

51%

BOS

Model favorite

49%

51%

NYR50BOS

BOS by 2 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score NYR 2.5–2.5 BOS; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

NYR← edge

edge →BOS

48.0%47.0%

49.0%49.0%

2.262.39

2.402.67

1.882.22

1.901.82

1.0091.023

BOS holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.009 vs 1.023) says BOS has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · Last 10

NYR

4-4-2

-1 GD · 1d rest

BOS

3-5-2

-10 GD · 1d rest

1.009

NYR PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

1.023

BOS PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

Regression watch

The Bruins' PDO is 1.023 — running hot, expect some regression.

Things to watch

J. Korpisalo is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
J. Quick is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
The Bruins are underwater at -10 goal differential over their last 10.
The Bruins' PDO is 1.023 — running hot, expect some regression.

Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score

NYR

Expected in goal

J. Quick

back-to-back.800 last start

Backup Igor Shesterkin · +21.3 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

BOS

Expected in goal

J. Korpisalo

back-to-back.966 last start

Backup Jeremy Swayman · +28.8 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG

NYR

Adam Sykora3G 1A

0.91 xG/60 · 0 HD · 20.0% sh

Gabe Perreault8G 11A

0.79 xG/60 · 2 HD · 13.1% sh

BOS

Viktor Arvidsson18G 24A

1.04 xG/60 · 2 HD · 13.0% sh

Tanner Jeannot6G 14A

0.75 xG/60 · 2 HD · 8.3% sh

Keep going

Where to next

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