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Motion-blurred skater in a Colorado Avalanche sweater
← Sat, Jan 10 · the slate
Breakdown · CBJ at COL

Avalanche shut out the Blue Jackets, 4-0

FinalSat, Jan 10
CBJColumbus Blue Jackets0COLColorado Avalanche4
The verdict · stolen

The Avalanche stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 3.92–2.97 and won anyway.

CBJ 0 · COL 4
◆ By the ModelJul 12, 12:05 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Colorado won a game it had no business winning. The Blue Jackets controlled 57% of the expected goals at 5v5, yet Colorado prevailed 4–0. Goaltending explained the gap: T. Miner stopped all 29 shots he faced and saved 3.92 goals above expected, while E. Merzlikins allowed 1.03 goals more than her workload merited.

The Blue Jackets created seven high-danger chances and converted none. The Avalanche scored on just three high-danger looks. Colorado won through elite goaltending and clinical finishing, not volume or possession.

B. Burns paced the Avalanche with 2 goals in 20:04. P. Kelly supplied 2 assists in 14:38. V. Olofsson added 1 goal and 1 assist in 13:23.

The underlying metrics favored Columbus. The final score did not.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · Jan 10
CBJ
0
COL
4

Avalanche shut out the Blue Jackets, 4-0

Chances 3.9 – 3.0Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Blue Jackets deserved better.

Expected goals · chance value
CBJ
3.92
COL
2.97
57% of the chances43%

The board read CBJ 0, COL 4. The chances read CBJ 3.9, COL 3.0.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
COL
+1.0
goals above expected
COL2.97 expected · 4 scored
Expected
Scored
CBJ3.92 expected · 0 scored
Expected
Scored

The Blue Jackets left 3.9 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 13:58COLB. Burns0–1
  2. P1 17:28COLV. Olofsson0–2
  3. P2 10:30COLI. Solovyov0–3
  4. P3 08:33COLB. Burns0–4
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
CBJ
53 shots
0
Final
98 shots
COL
45 shots
4
CBJ attackCOL attack
CBJ COL Goal
53
shots · 0 in
45
shots · 4 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
CBJCOL
0 / 7
1.52 xG
High danger
0 / 3
0.71 xG
0 / 15
1.75 xG
Medium
2 / 17
1.55 xG
0 / 50
0.65 xG
Low
2 / 49
0.70 xG

The Blue Jackets went 0 for 7 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
A+
T. Miner
+3.9
COL · 29/29
D-
E. Merzlikins
−1.0
CBJ · 27/31
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Avalanche shut out the Blue Jackets, 4-0

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 7–15
  1. 13:58COLB. Burns(R. Colton, G. Brindley)0–1
  2. 17:28COLV. Olofsson(J. Drury, P. Kelly)0–2
2ndshots 13–7
  1. 10:30COLI. Solovyov(P. Kelly, V. Olofsson)0–3
3rdshots 9–9
  1. 08:33COLB. Burns(Z. Bardakov, G. Brindley)0–4

score reads CBJ–COL

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
2.97
COL chances
Goals their shots were worth
+1.0
Finishing
Goals above what those chances were worth
1.058
COL puck luck
Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way
48.9%
Shot attempts
Under half — they were outshot
Split by club

Who controlled the game

3.92Expected goals2.97
CBJ 57% of the chance quality
29Shots on goal31
7High-danger chances3
72All attempts (Corsi)69
Adjusted for score: CBJ 56% · COL 44%
Faceoffs · COL won38%off57%neu67%def
Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected
High dangerslot & crease
CBJ0 / 7 · 1.52 xG
COL0 / 3 · 0.71 xG
Medium dangermid-range
CBJ0 / 15 · 1.75 xG
COL2 / 17 · 1.55 xG
Low dangerperimeter & point
CBJ0 / 50 · 0.65 xG
COL2 / 49 · 0.70 xG

CBJ went 0-for-15 from medium danger on 1.75 expected goals — 1.8 left on the table.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual
CBJ
0 G · 3.92 xG · -3.9
COL
4 G · 2.97 xG · +1.0
012345

CBJ finished -3.9 against expected, COL +1.0.

Source · Backcheck xG model
Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots
CBJ
WRIST0/23
SLAP0/11
SNAP0/7
BACKHAND0/5
TIP IN0/3
DEFLECTED0/3
POKE0/1
WRAP AROUND0/0
OTHER0/19
COL
WRIST1/19
SLAP1/7
SNAP1/7
BACKHAND1/7
TIP IN0/3
DEFLECTED0/1
POKE0/0
WRAP AROUND0/1
OTHER0/24
CBJ
COL
Off the rush
0 G on 31
2.64 xG
2 G on 29
2.05 xG
Off rebounds
0 G on 7
0.91 xG
1 G on 3
0.33 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: CBJ went 0-for-23, COL 1-for-19. COL scored 2 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG
Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD
High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi
Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.
Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx
Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO
Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected
E. Merzlikins
CBJ · 27/31 · .871
-1.0
saved above expected
D-
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger0/30.7+0.7
Medium2/171.6-0.5
Low2/490.7-1.3

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

T. Miner
COL · 29/29 · 1.000
+3.9
saved above expected
A+
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger0/71.5+1.5
Medium0/151.8+1.8
Low0/500.7+0.7

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

98 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates
CBJ
53 shots
0
Final
98 shots
COL
45 shots
4
CBJ attackCOL attack
CBJ COL Goal

Each club shoots toward its own end — CBJ left, COL right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first
Three stars · computed, not voted
B. Burns
#84 · D · COL
2 G · 0 A · 4 SOG · 20:04 on ice · +3
P. Kelly
#17 · C · COL
0 G · 2 A · 1 SOG · 14:38 on ice · +3
V. Olofsson
#95 · L · COL
1 G · 1 A · 2 SOG · 13:23 on ice · +2
Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Sat, Jan 10
Open the pre-game read
Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelJul 12, 12:04 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model favors the Avalanche at 57% win probability, projecting a 2.5–2.9 game. The Avalanche's edge is real, but their luck is running out.

The Avalanche look sharper than the Blue Jackets in live action. The Avalanche are 8-2-0 in their last 10, evidence of sustained form. Underneath, the gap is wider: the Avalanche hold 57.0% expected goals at 5v5, compared to the Blue Jackets' 52.0%. The Corsi split mirrors this—57.0% for the Avalanche, 51.0% for the Blue Jackets—meaning the Avalanche don't just out-shoot; they own territorial control. Artturi Lehkonen drives that edge at 1.11 xG/60, his 18 goals and 6 high-danger goals backing up the underlying dominance.

This is where the model sees its advantage. The Avalanche's shot volume and shot quality should translate to wins over time. But there's a catch: the Avalanche's PDO sits at 1.021, indicating their actual results have outpaced what their underlying play suggests. The Blue Jackets' PDO of 1.003 is closer to neutral. Regression is coming for the Avalanche. Some of their recent wins are borrowed from tomorrow's results.

Both goaltenders enter on back-to-backs. Monitor whether the Avalanche lean on a backup or rely on a fatigued S. Wedgewood; similarly, watch if the Blue Jackets wheel out a backup instead of J. Greaves. This could tighten the game if either starter is unavailable.

Players to Watch

Blue Jackets

  • Boone Jenner — 0.98 xG/60, 11G 21A, 2 HD goals, 9.6% shooting
  • Mathieu Olivier — 0.89 xG/60, 12G 9A, 1 HD goal, 13.3% shooting

Avalanche

  • Artturi Lehkonen — 1.11 xG/60, 18G 22A, 6 HD goals, 14.9% shooting
  • Ross Colton — 1.10 xG/60, 7G 15A, 1 HD goal, 4.9% shooting

The Blue Jackets need to manage Lehkonen's touches; Conor Garland becomes a liability in tight assignments. For the Avalanche, Nazem Kadri represents the weak point the Blue Jackets can target. If they exploit that, PDO regression and goalie fatigue might combine into a closer result than the model suggests.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

COL 57%
57%
COL
Model favorite
43%
57%
CBJ50COL

COL by 14 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score CBJ 2.5–2.9 COL; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG
CBJ← edge
edge →COL
52.0%57.0%
51.0%57.0%
2.633.03
2.432.30
2.122.63
1.981.56
1.0031.021

COL holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.003 vs 1.021) says COL has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
CBJ
4-5-1
+0 GD · 1d rest
COL
8-2-0
+20 GD · 1d rest
1.003
CBJ PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.021
COL PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it

Keys to the game

Where the edges live
  • The Avalanche own the underlying play — 57.0% 5v5 xG vs 52.0%.
  • The Avalanche drive Corsi at 57.0% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
  • The Avalanche's PDO is 1.021 — running hot, expect some regression.
Things to watch
  • The Avalanche own the underlying play — 57.0% 5v5 xG vs 52.0%.
  • The Avalanche drive Corsi at 57.0% — expect territorial tilt.
  • S. Wedgewood is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
  • J. Greaves is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
  • The Avalanche are the hotter team by points pace (8-2-0 in their last 10).
  • The Avalanche's PDO is 1.021 — running hot, expect some regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score
CBJ
Expected in goal
J. Greaves
back-to-back.808 last start
Backup Jet Greaves · +16.5 GSAx this season
Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

COL
Expected in goal
S. Wedgewood
back-to-back.935 last start
Backup Scott Wedgewood · +23.1 GSAx this season
Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG
CBJ
Boone Jenner11G 21A
0.98 xG/60 · 2 HD · 9.6% sh
Mathieu Olivier12G 9A
0.89 xG/60 · 1 HD · 13.3% sh
COL
Artturi Lehkonen18G 22A
1.11 xG/60 · 6 HD · 14.9% sh
Ross Colton7G 15A
1.10 xG/60 · 1 HD · 4.9% sh
Keep going

Where to next

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