The Maple Leafs stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 3.82–3.12 and won anyway.
Toronto's 5-0 victory over Vancouver reads like a heist. The Canucks dominated the underlying metrics—3.82 expected goals to 3.12, holding 55% at 5v5—and still lost by five. In a sport ruled by volume and quality, the Leafs did neither better. Yet there was the scoreboard.
The difference was goaltending. J. Woll saved 3.82 goals above expected: all 29 shots faced, including every high-danger chance. For Vancouver, the gap was worse. T. Demko gave up 2.22 goals above expected in six shots, while K. Lankinen posted a 0.889 save percentage on 18 attempts. Woll stole the game; Demko gave it away.
The Leafs' edge was shooting quality. At 0.071 expected goals per shot versus Vancouver's 0.054, their chances were genuinely dangerous. They converted ruthlessly: five goals on 26 rush chances, a rate that speaks to both depth and opportunity. The Canucks couldn't finish. Zero on six high-danger attempts—a miss rate that will regress, but didn't today. They created three rebound chances and buried none.
Nicholas Robertson's snap shot from the high slot at 19:46 of the third period was the turning point. By then, though, Woll had already rewritten the story. The Leafs won a game Vancouver played well enough to take—not because Toronto played better hockey, but because Toronto played better when it counted.
