The Jets earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
The Jets won 4-3, an outcome that aligned with their underlying superiority. Winnipeg controlled 57% of expected goals despite 45% of shot attempts; New Jersey outshot them 27-22, though the Jets' shots were deadlier (0.103 xG per attempt versus 0.064).
The goaltending split amplified the divergence. C. Hellebuyck stopped 24 of 27 (0.889 SV%) and ran 0.98 goals ahead of expected, while J. Allen recorded 18 of 22 saves (0.818 SV%) despite running 1.34 ahead of expected. That latter stat—an elite performance according to the model—couldn't match the scoreline.
The game tilted on Tanner Pearson's wrist shot from the doorstep in the third period. Winnipeg converted 3 of 6 rebound chances; New Jersey created 7 rebounds and converted zero. That asymmetry cost the Devils—they scored twice from low-danger locations, relying on perfection a goaltender couldn't manufacture.
High-danger chances split 9–9, suggesting both teams earned their looks. What separated them was consistency: Winnipeg crashed the net and cashed in when the bed was made. New Jersey did the work and left empty-handed.
The advanced numbers backed Winnipeg's win. The Jets outmatched the Devils where it mattered—at the scoresheet and in the model—even if the shot counter told a different story.
Three Stars:
- #86 J. Hughes (NJD), 2A
- #44 J. Morrissey (WPG), 2A
- #43 L. Hughes (NJD), 2A