The Canadiens earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
Montreal's 6-3 win conceals an awkward disagreement: the teams were tied on high-danger chances (6-6), yet the Canadiens won by three. The underlying numbers explain why — Montreal simply converted from everywhere else.
The Canadiens controlled the game's foundation: 64% of shot attempts (41–23) and 61% of expected goals (5.19–3.30). But the real story is quality over quantity. Montreal generated 0.075 expected goals per shot versus Vancouver's 0.055 — a significant edge in shot-making efficiency that defined the game.
Where the divergence widened: Montreal scored two goals from low-danger spots, the kind opponents have to live with. They were lethal off the rush, converting 6 goals on 39 rush chances. Vancouver, meanwhile, was clinical in the high-danger zone — 3-for-6 (50%) — but the rest of the scoresheet worked against them.
Goaltending amplified the gap. N. Tolopilo (VAN) finished 35 for 41 with a 0.854 save percentage, underperforming expected by 0.81 goals — exactly the margin by which Montreal overperformed. J. Dobes (MTL) stopped 20 of 23.
Montreal's dominance wasn't fluky. Oliver Kapanen's snap shot from the high slot (Period 3, 06:05) punctuated the control. The Canadiens crashed effectively, generating five rebound opportunities, though converting none. They simply didn't need them.