Motion-blurred skater in a Winnipeg Jets sweater

Breakdown · NYI at WPG

Jets hold off the Islanders

FinalTue, Jan 13

NYINew York Islanders4 WPGWinnipeg Jets5

The verdict · earned

The Jets earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

NYI 4 · WPG 5

◆ By the ModelJul 12, 12:39 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The 5–4 final belied Winnipeg's dominance. The Jets controlled 59% of expected goals (4.92–3.47) and owned the high-danger advantage 8–4, evidence that the closer scoreline masked a meaningful gap.

The underlying story: Winnipeg generated higher-quality chances, averaging 0.105 xG per shot compared to New York's 0.067. That quality edge persisted through the game, even as both teams scored from low-danger spots—two apiece. Both sides converted rush opportunities at nearly identical rates (Winnipeg 2-for-20, New York 2-for-24).

Goaltending decided it. C. Hellebuyck's 0.852 save percentage exceeded I. Sorokin's 0.773. Matthew Schaefer's third-period wrist shot from the point represented the moment Winnipeg's dominance reached the scoreboard.

The Jets generated six rebound chances and converted one; New York created seven and converted one. Identical efficiency concealed a structural edge: Winnipeg's high-danger volume gave C. Hellebuyck easier defensive situations overall.

Three Stars

#81 K. Connor (WPG) — 1G, 1A in 21:30
#55 M. Scheifele (WPG) — 2A in 21:28
#51 E. Heineman (NYI) — 1G, 1A in 18:14

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page

Final · Jan 13

NYI

WPG

Jets hold off the Islanders

Chances 3.5 – 4.9Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

The Jets earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value

NYI

3.47

WPG

4.92

41% of the chances59%

The board read NYI 4, WPG 5. The chances read NYI 3.5, WPG 4.9.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

WPG

+0.1

goals above expected

WPG4.92 expected · 5 scored

Expected

Scored

NYI3.47 expected · 4 scored

Expected

Scored

Both sides finished close to what their chances were worth. This one was earned on the ice.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

Every goal, in order

P1 04:20WPGK. Connor0–1
P2 05:41WPGJ. Morrissey0–2
P2 06:23WPGJ. ToewsPP0–3
P2 07:40NYIA. Duclair1–3
P2 08:58NYIE. HeinemanPP2–3
P2 10:21NYIK. MacLean3–3
P2 12:23WPGD. DeMelo3–4

+2 more on the full breakdown

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

NYI

42 shots

Final

77 shots

WPG

35 shots

NYI WPG GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

shots · 4 in

shots · 5 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

NYIWPG

0 / 4

1.30 xG

High danger

1 / 8

3.14 xG

2 / 12

1.44 xG

Medium

2 / 9

1.30 xG

2 / 36

0.74 xG

Low

2 / 30

0.48 xG

The Islanders went 0 for 4 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

I. Sorokin

−0.1

NYI · 17/22

C. Hellebuyck

−0.5

WPG · 23/27

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

Jets hold off the Islanders

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 08 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 7–9

04:20WPGK. Connor(A. Iafallo, M. Scheifele)0–1

2ndshots 8–11

05:41WPGJ. Morrissey(C. Perfetti, A. Lowry)0–2
06:23WPGJ. Toewspower play(G. Vilardi, K. Connor)0–3
07:40NYIA. Duclair(A. Lee, R. Pulock)1–3
08:58NYIE. Heinemanpower play2–3
10:21NYIK. MacLean(C. Cizikas)3–3
12:23WPGD. DeMelo(M. Scheifele, V. Namestnikov)3–4
19:40WPGA. Lowry(N. Pionk, D. Samberg)3–5

3rdshots 12–2

19:14NYIM. Schaeferpower play(M. Barzal, E. Heineman)4–5

score reads NYI–WPG

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

4.92

WPG chances

Goals their shots were worth

+0.1

Finishing

Goals above what those chances were worth

1.030

WPG puck luck

Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way

47.5%

Shot attempts

Under half — they were outshot

Split by club

Who controlled the game

3.47Expected goals4.92

WPG 59% of the chance quality

27Shots on goal22

4High-danger chances8

52All attempts (Corsi)47

Adjusted for score: NYI 57% · WPG 43%

Faceoffs · WPG won43%off44%neu47%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

NYI0 / 4 · 1.30 xG

WPG1 / 8 · 3.14 xG

Medium dangermid-range

NYI2 / 12 · 1.44 xG

WPG2 / 9 · 1.30 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

NYI2 / 36 · 0.74 xG

WPG2 / 30 · 0.48 xG

WPG went 1-for-8 from high danger on 3.14 expected goals — 2.1 left on the table.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

NYI

4 G · 3.47 xG · +0.5

WPG

5 G · 4.92 xG · +0.1

0123456

NYI finished +0.5 against expected, WPG +0.1.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

NYI

WRIST2/22

SLAP0/8

BACKHAND1/4

TIP IN0/3

SNAP1/4

BAT0/1

DEFLECTED0/0

OTHER0/10

WPG

WRIST2/19

SLAP1/3

BACKHAND0/5

TIP IN1/4

SNAP0/1

BAT0/2

DEFLECTED1/1

OTHER0/12

NYI

WPG

Off the rush

2 G on 24

1.56 xG

2 G on 20

2.38 xG

Off rebounds

1 G on 7

1.25 xG

1 G on 6

0.96 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: NYI went 2-for-22, WPG 2-for-19. NYI scored 2 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

I. Sorokin

NYI · 17/22 · .773

-0.1

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger1/83.1+2.1

Medium2/91.3-0.7

Low2/300.5-1.5

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

C. Hellebuyck

WPG · 23/27 · .852

-0.5

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger0/41.3+1.3

Medium2/121.4-0.6

Low2/360.7-1.3

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

77 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

NYI

42 shots

Final

77 shots

WPG

35 shots

NYI WPG GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Each club shoots toward its own end — NYI left, WPG right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

K. Connor

#81 · L · WPG

1 G · 1 A · 2 SOG · 21:30 on ice · +1

M. Scheifele

#55 · C · WPG

0 G · 2 A · 2 SOG · 21:28 on ice · +2

E. Heineman

#51 · L · NYI

1 G · 1 A · 6 SOG · 18:14 on ice

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Tue, Jan 13

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity

◆ By the ModelJul 12, 12:37 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model can't pick a winner here. MoneyPuck's 5v5 projection gives New York 2.5 to 2.6 expected goals per game and pegs Winnipeg's win probability at 52%—meaning this is closer to a true coin flip than the lines suggest.

The Islanders are riding positive momentum at 6-2-2 over their last ten games, while Winnipeg sits underwater at minus-5 in goal differential for the same stretch. But the underlying metrics explain why the model resists picking sides: both teams possess identical shot quality across the season, with 48.0% expected goals percentage and 49.0% Corsi percentage at 5v5. Winnipeg holds a marginal luck advantage (0.998 PDO to New York's 0.993), which explains some of their resilience despite the recent slump.

The separation will come down to which team's dangerous players have room to work.

Players to Watch

NYI

Anders Lee — 1.20 xG/60, 9G 20A, 2 HD goals, 6.4% shooting
Bo Horvat — 0.87 xG/60, 18G 10A, 3 HD goals, 12.8% shooting

WPG

Nino Niederreiter — 0.87 xG/60, 6G 6A, 3 HD goals, 8.6% shooting
Kyle Connor — 0.83 xG/60, 25G 30A, 2 HD goals, 13.0% shooting

Alexander Romanov is New York's defensive liability; Colin Miller holds the same role in Winnipeg. Neither team generates meaningful rebound-goal advantages—a mutual weakness that suggests goaltending variance could tip the balance. This is what a true toss-up looks like: equivalent depth charts, mirrored underlying metrics, and no discernible edge in recent performance. Expect a close, low-variance affair where momentum matters as much as structure.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

WPG 52%

52%

WPG

Model favorite

48%

52%

NYI50WPG

WPG by 4 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score NYI 2.5–2.6 WPG; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

NYI← edge

edge →WPG

48.0%48.0%

49.0%49.0%

2.482.34

2.692.55

1.781.90

1.942.10

0.9930.998

WPG holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.993 vs 0.998) says WPG has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · Last 10

NYI

6-2-2

+6 GD · 2d rest

WPG

2-5-3

-5 GD · 2d rest

0.993

NYI PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

0.998

WPG PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

Things to watch

The Islanders are the hotter team by points pace (6-2-2 in their last 10).
The Jets are underwater at -5 goal differential over their last 10.

Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score

NYI

Expected in goal

I. Sorokin

2 days rest.917 last start

Backup Ilya Sorokin · +25.3 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

WPG

Expected in goal

C. Hellebuyck

2 days rest.889 last start

Backup Connor Hellebuyck · +5.5 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG

NYI

Anders Lee9G 20A

1.20 xG/60 · 2 HD · 6.4% sh

Bo Horvat18G 10A

0.87 xG/60 · 3 HD · 12.8% sh

WPG

Nino Niederreiter6G 6A

0.87 xG/60 · 3 HD · 8.6% sh

Kyle Connor25G 30A

0.83 xG/60 · 2 HD · 13.0% sh

Keep going

Where to next

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