The Devils won a genuine coin flip — neither side controlled the run of play.
New Jersey won 3–2, but the underlying numbers called it nearly even: expected goals split 2.90–3.01 in Seattle's favor, a gap too small to explain the scoreline. The Devils got the win on superior shot volume; the Kraken got the better chances and nothing to show for it.
The Devils controlled play through volume. They led 60% of shot attempts (26–17 on goal) and manufactured multiple opportunities off the rush—two goals on 21 rush chances is clinical conversion. But their scoring chances were softer than their opponent's. The Kraken generated 5 high-danger chances to New Jersey's 3, and held a 0.064 xG per shot to 0.048, indicating they took higher-percentage looks.
What sank Seattle was finishing. The Kraken underperformed their expected goals by 1.01—they created dangerous chances and failed to finish most of them. By contrast, J. Markstrom stopped 1.0 goals above expected, propping up New Jersey's underlying deficit in shot quality.
The game's central tension was two approaches: New Jersey crashing the net for rebounds (5 created, 1 converted) and forcing volume, against Seattle generating real scoring chances. For 60 minutes, Seattle's efficiency nearly won the argument. That ended at 03:42 of overtime when Nico Hischier's backhander from the doorstep broke the tie—a moment of clinical execution in a game Seattle had largely controlled.