The Predators earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
Colorado out-shot Nashville 43–30 but lost 7–3, a sign that volume masked a quality gap. The Predators controlled 61% of expected goals at 5v5, converting chances at an elite rate while the Avalanche squandered theirs.
Nashville's shots were sharper: 0.081 expected goals per attempt versus Colorado's 0.045. The Predators finished 5 for 6 on high-danger chances (83%), a clinical performance in the scoring areas. Colorado's shot volume meant little when confined to low-probability attempts.
Goaltending amplified the underlying edge. J. Saros stopped 40 of 43 (0.930 save percentage), while M. Blackwood faced a steeper hill at 23 of 28 (0.821). The gap understates the mismatch—Saros worked behind superior defensive support and received easier looks.
Nashville overperformed their expected goals by 2.41 goals, a sign of either elite finish or fortunate bounces. The Predators were lethal on the transition, converting 5 of 24 rush chances. Michael McCarron's doorstep wrist shot early in the third period (17:41) set the tone for dominance to follow.
The Avalanche had the shot volume but none of the danger. Colorado's high-danger chance rate (4 to Nashville's 6) reflected their difficulty creating quality opportunities against a Nashville defense that dictated pace and placement.