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Motion-blurred skater in a Vegas Golden Knights sweater
← Sat, Jan 17 · the slate
Breakdown · NSH at VGK

Golden Knights pull away from the Predators

FinalSat, Jan 17
NSHNashville Predators2VGKVegas Golden Knights7
The verdict · earned

The Golden Knights earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

NSH 2 · VGK 7
◆ By the ModelJul 12, 1:26 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Vegas didn't just control the game—they finished ruthlessly, scoring 3.34 goals above their expected output in a 7-2 rout. This wasn't variance salvaging a thin advantage; the Knights also dominated the underlying metrics.

Vegas held 58% of 5v5 expected goals (3.66–2.66), 55% of shot attempts (36–29), and 5–2 in high-danger chances. The difference in shot quality was stark: Vegas generated 0.058 xG per shot versus Nashville's 0.044, and converted 2 of their 5 high-danger chances.

The breakdown came in three places. First, Vegas was lethal in transition, scoring 6 goals on 34 rush chances while Nashville scored 2 on 32. Second, Vegas buried 2 goals from low-danger spots—the moments where goalies cannot control the outcome. Third, goaltending created a chasm: A. Schmid stopped 27 of 29 (+0.66 vs expected), while J. Annunen allowed 29 of 36 and finished −3.34 against expectation.

The turning point arrived in the third period when Filip Forsberg's wrist shot from the high slot cut Nashville's deficit, but the game was already sliding Vegas's way. By that stage, the Knights' efficiency had already compounded their control.

This is what finishing looks like: Vegas generated the better chances and executed them at a rate the Predators simply could not match.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · Jan 17
NSH
2
VGK
7

Golden Knights pull away from the Predators

Chances 2.7 – 3.7Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Golden Knights earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value
NSH
2.66
VGK
3.66
42% of the chances58%

The board read NSH 2, VGK 7. The chances read NSH 2.7, VGK 3.7.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
VGK
+3.3
goals above expected
VGK3.66 expected · 7 scored
Expected
Scored
NSH2.66 expected · 2 scored
Expected
Scored

The Golden Knights scored 3.3 more than their chances were worth. That does not repeat.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 14:10NSHL. Evangelista1–0
  2. P2 17:17VGKA. Holtz1–1
  3. P2 18:22VGKS. Theodore1–2
  4. P3 05:52VGKP. Dorofeyev1–3
  5. P3 08:52VGKM. Stone1–4
  6. P3 12:26VGKC. Reinhardt1–5
  7. P3 13:16VGKM. Marner1–6
+2 more on the full breakdown
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
NSH
44 shots
2
Final
90 shots
VGK
46 shots
7
NSH attackVGK attack
NSH VGK Goal
44
shots · 2 in
46
shots · 7 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
NSHVGK
0 / 2
0.41 xG
High danger
2 / 5
1.16 xG
2 / 17
1.60 xG
Medium
3 / 17
1.77 xG
0 / 42
0.66 xG
Low
2 / 41
0.73 xG

The Golden Knights buried 2 of 5 high-danger looks.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
B
A. Schmid
+0.7
VGK · 27/29
F
J. Annunen
−3.3
NSH · 29/36
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Golden Knights pull away from the Predators

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 9–15
  1. 14:10NSHL. Evangelista(R. Josi)1–0
2ndshots 11–10
  1. 17:17VGKA. Holtz(S. Theodore, C. Reinhardt)1–1
  2. 18:22VGKS. Theodore(J. Lauzon, K. Kolesar)1–2
3rdshots 9–11
  1. 05:52VGKP. Dorofeyev(M. Marner)1–3
  2. 08:52VGKM. Stone(J. Eichel, Z. Whitecloud)1–4
  3. 12:26VGKC. Reinhardt(A. Holtz, T. Laczynski)1–5
  4. 13:16VGKM. Marner(R. Smith, A. Schmid)1–6
  5. 15:12VGKK. Kolesar(T. Hertl, B. Bowman)1–7
  6. 19:38NSHF. Forsbergpower play(R. O'Reilly, R. Josi)2–7

score reads NSH–VGK

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
3.66
VGK chances
Goals their shots were worth
+3.3
Finishing
Goals above what those chances were worth
1.078
VGK puck luck
Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way
50.8%
Shot attempts
Over half — they had the puck more
Split by club

Who controlled the game

2.66Expected goals3.66
VGK 58% of the chance quality
29Shots on goal36
2High-danger chances5
61All attempts (Corsi)63
Adjusted for score: NSH 50% · VGK 50%
Faceoffs · VGK won71%off27%neu45%def
Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected
High dangerslot & crease
NSH0 / 2 · 0.41 xG
VGK2 / 5 · 1.16 xG
Medium dangermid-range
NSH2 / 17 · 1.60 xG
VGK3 / 17 · 1.77 xG
Low dangerperimeter & point
NSH0 / 42 · 0.66 xG
VGK2 / 41 · 0.73 xG

VGK went 2-for-41 from low danger on 0.73 expected goals — 1.3 above expected.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual
NSH
2 G · 2.66 xG · -0.7
VGK
7 G · 3.66 xG · +3.3
012345678

NSH finished -0.7 against expected, VGK +3.3.

Source · Backcheck xG model
Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots
NSH
WRIST1/22
SLAP0/8
SNAP0/5
TIP IN0/6
BACKHAND0/2
DEFLECTED1/1
OTHER0/17
VGK
WRIST2/23
SLAP1/6
SNAP3/9
TIP IN0/5
BACKHAND1/2
DEFLECTED0/1
OTHER0/17
NSH
VGK
Off the rush
2 G on 32
1.96 xG
6 G on 34
3.01 xG
Off rebounds
0 G on 3
0.37 xG
0 G on 1
0.15 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: NSH went 1-for-22, VGK 2-for-23. VGK scored 6 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG
Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD
High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi
Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.
Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx
Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO
Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected
J. Annunen
NSH · 29/36 · .806
-3.3
saved above expected
F
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger2/51.2-0.8
Medium3/171.8-1.2
Low2/410.7-1.3

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

A. Schmid
VGK · 27/29 · .931
+0.7
saved above expected
B
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger0/20.4+0.4
Medium2/171.6-0.4
Low0/420.7+0.7

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

90 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates
NSH
44 shots
2
Final
90 shots
VGK
46 shots
7
NSH attackVGK attack
NSH VGK Goal

Each club shoots toward its own end — NSH left, VGK right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first
Three stars · computed, not voted
R. Josi
#59 · D · NSH
0 G · 2 A · 3 SOG · 23:26 on ice · -1
S. Theodore
#27 · D · VGK
1 G · 1 A · 3 SOG · 19:10 on ice · +3
M. Marner
#93 · R · VGK
1 G · 1 A · 3 SOG · 16:54 on ice · +2
Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Sat, Jan 17
Open the pre-game read
Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelJul 12, 1:25 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Vegas commands this matchup with convincing projection. The model pegs the Golden Knights at 57% win probability, translating to a 2.3-to-2.7 final score. That confidence reflects genuine fundamentals, not volatile variance: Vegas owns 54.0% of expected goals at 5v5, a four-point advantage over Nashville's 49.0%. Shot attempts reinforce it—52.0% Corsi to 50.0%—confirming the Knights generate sustainable pressure rather than the fleeting kind that masks underlying weakness.

The deeper edge lives in PDO, where Vegas waits for regression. The Knights run at 0.983, cold enough that positive regression is mathematically assured. That's not weakness—it's deferred wins. Team puck luck regresses to the mean reliably; Vegas is overdue. Nashville sits at 0.992, effectively neutral, so the regression math amplifies the Vegas advantage more decisively than the projection might suggest.

A rest advantage sharpens the edge further. Las Vegas arrives on one day of recovery; Nashville has three. But the critical factor is A. Hill's goaltending status. The Predators' starter is on a back-to-back, raising binary questions: either a backup gets the nod against a rested opponent, or Hill takes the ice already fatigued. Either scenario advantages Vegas' underlying edge.

Nashville's offense hinges on two performers. Zachary L'Heureux generates 0.85 expected goals per 60 minutes while converting at an elite 16.0% clip, anchored by 4 goals on 1 high-danger opportunity. Filip Forsberg adds 0.80 xG/60 with 23 goals and 17 assists, contributing 4 high-danger tallies. Defensively, Jonathan Marchessault functions as the Predators' weak link in transition, inviting rush opportunities Vegas can weaponize.

Vegas counters with Tomas Hertl (0.88 xG/60, 5 goals, 17 assists, 1 high-danger) and Brandon Saad, marked likely out. Hertl's 4.3% shooting is suppressed for a player generating his volume of chances—natural positive regression awaits if Vegas controls possession. Rasmus Andersson functions as the Knights' defensive liability.

An oddity worth monitoring: both teams show 0% high-danger goals and 0% rebound goals this season. These figures suggest pristine goaltending discipline or unusual shot distribution. If either goaltender tightens in crisis moments, these metrics will illuminate the shift immediately.

Players to Watch

  • Zachary L'Heureux (NSH): 0.85 xG/60, 4G on 16.0% shooting
  • Filip Forsberg (NSH): 0.80 xG/60, 23G-17A
  • Tomas Hertl (VGK): 0.88 xG/60, 5G-17A, 4.3% shooting
  • Brandon Saad (VGK): 0.91 xG/60, 3G-6A, marked likely out

Three Stars

  • Tomas Hertl, if Las Vegas controls possession
  • A. Hill's back-to-back fatigue as the silent factor in goal expectancy
  • Zachary L'Heureux's elite conversion against rested Vegas defense
What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

VGK 57%
57%
VGK
Model favorite
43%
57%
NSH50VGK

VGK by 14 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score NSH 2.3–2.7 VGK; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG
NSH← edge
edge →VGK
49.0%54.0%
50.0%52.0%
2.482.52
2.582.11
1.842.12
2.212.10
0.9920.983

VGK holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.992 vs 0.983) says NSH has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
NSH
6-4-0
-4 GD · 3d rest
VGK
6-3-1
+5 GD · 1d rest
0.992
NSH PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.983
VGK PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it

Keys to the game

Where the edges live
  • The Golden Knights own the underlying play — 54.0% 5v5 xG vs 49.0%.
Regression watch
  • The Golden Knights' PDO is 0.983 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Things to watch
  • The Golden Knights own the underlying play — 54.0% 5v5 xG vs 49.0%.
  • A. Hill is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
  • The Golden Knights' PDO is 0.983 — running cold, due for positive regression.
  • The Predators have 2 more days of rest.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score
NSH
Expected in goal
J. Saros
3 days rest.903 last start
Backup Juuse Saros · -9.3 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

VGK
Expected in goal
A. Hill
back-to-back.821 last start
Backup Akira Schmid · -1.0 GSAx this season
Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG
NSH
Zachary L'Heureux4G 0A
0.85 xG/60 · 1 HD · 16.0% sh
Filip Forsberg23G 17A
0.80 xG/60 · 4 HD · 13.6% sh
VGK
Brandon Saad3G 6A
0.91 xG/60 · 1 HD · 4.1% sh
Tomas Hertl5G 17A
0.88 xG/60 · 1 HD · 4.3% sh
Keep going

Where to next

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