Motion-blurred skater in a Vegas Golden Knights sweater

Breakdown · VGK at TOR

Golden Knights pull away from the Maple Leafs

FinalFri, Jan 23

VGKVegas Golden Knights6 TORToronto Maple Leafs3

The verdict · earned

The Golden Knights earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

VGK 6 · TOR 3

◆ By the ModelJul 12, 2:38 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Golden Knights beat the Maple Leafs 6–3, but the scoreboard understated their dominance. Vegas overperformed their expected goals by 2.43—evidence of clinical finishing that turned an already-favorable position into a rout.

VGK controlled 58% of 5v5 expected goals (3.57–2.63). Their shot quality exceeded Toronto's: 0.071 expected goals per shot versus 0.049. In high-danger chances, Vegas converted 2 of 5, while Toronto managed 1.

A. Stolarz faced 30 shots and conceded 1.4 more goals than expected. A. Hill stopped 18 of 21 (0.857 SV%). Toronto couldn't generate volume—they held 40% of shot attempts (21–31)—or convert their limited opportunities.

Toronto scored 2 goals on 29 rush chances. Vegas, though, went 3 for 27 on the rush and converted 1 of 4 rebound opportunities. M. Stone scored twice and added 1 assist in 18:19, including a wrist shot from the wing at 19:01 of the third.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page

Final · Jan 23

VGK

TOR

Golden Knights pull away from the Maple Leafs

Chances 3.6 – 2.6Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

The Golden Knights earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value

VGK

3.57

TOR

2.63

58% of the chances42%

The board read VGK 6, TOR 3. The chances read VGK 3.6, TOR 2.6.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

VGK

+2.4

goals above expected

VGK3.57 expected · 6 scored

Expected

Scored

TOR2.63 expected · 3 scored

Expected

Scored

The Golden Knights scored 2.4 more than their chances were worth. That does not repeat.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

Every goal, in order

P1 01:06VGKJ. Eichel1–0
P1 04:31VGKK. Kolesar2–0
P2 00:13TORJ. Tavares2–1
P2 03:32VGKP. Dorofeyev3–1
P2 05:16VGKB. Bowman4–1
P2 10:04TORS. Laughton4–2
P2 18:19TORB. McMann4–3

+2 more on the full breakdown

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

VGK

41 shots

Final

77 shots

TOR

36 shots

VGK TOR GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

shots · 6 in

shots · 3 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

VGKTOR

2 / 5

1.59 xG

High danger

0 / 1

0.22 xG

3 / 13

1.37 xG

Medium

3 / 17

1.93 xG

1 / 32

0.62 xG

Low

0 / 36

0.48 xG

The Golden Knights buried 2 of 5 high-danger looks.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

A. Hill

−0.4

VGK · 18/21

D-

A. Stolarz

−1.4

TOR · 25/30

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

Golden Knights pull away from the Maple Leafs

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 08 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 10–5

01:06VGKJ. Eichel(M. Stone, I. Barbashev)1–0
04:31VGKK. Kolesar(J. Rondbjerg, R. Smith)2–0

2ndshots 7–11

00:13TORJ. Tavares(M. Knies, M. Maccelli)2–1
03:32VGKP. Dorofeyev3–1
05:16VGKB. Bowman(T. Laczynski, A. Holtz)4–1
10:04TORS. Laughton(M. Knies)4–2
18:19TORB. McMann(M. Domi, M. Rielly)4–3

3rdshots 14–5

15:11VGKM. Stone(I. Barbashev)5–3
19:01VGKM. Stoneempty net(J. Eichel, R. Andersson)6–3

score reads VGK–TOR

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

3.57

VGK chances

Goals their shots were worth

+2.4

Finishing

Goals above what those chances were worth

1.064

VGK puck luck

Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way

48.1%

Shot attempts

Under half — they were outshot

Split by club

Who controlled the game

3.57Expected goals2.63

VGK 58% of the chance quality

31Shots on goal21

5High-danger chances1

50All attempts (Corsi)54

Adjusted for score: VGK 42% · TOR 58%

Faceoffs · TOR won53%off60%neu62%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

VGK2 / 5 · 1.59 xG

TOR0 / 1 · 0.22 xG

Medium dangermid-range

VGK3 / 13 · 1.37 xG

TOR3 / 17 · 1.93 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

VGK1 / 32 · 0.62 xG

TOR0 / 36 · 0.48 xG

VGK went 3-for-13 from medium danger on 1.37 expected goals — 1.6 above expected.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

VGK

6 G · 3.57 xG · +2.4

TOR

3 G · 2.63 xG · +0.4

01234567

VGK finished +2.4 against expected, TOR +0.4.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

VGK

WRIST5/27

SNAP1/5

TIP IN0/2

BACKHAND0/3

SLAP0/1

BAT0/1

WRAP AROUND0/1

DEFLECTED0/1

OTHER0/9

TOR

WRIST0/18

SNAP0/4

TIP IN1/6

BACKHAND2/4

SLAP0/2

BAT0/1

WRAP AROUND0/1

DEFLECTED0/0

OTHER0/18

VGK

TOR

Off the rush

3 G on 27

2.00 xG

2 G on 29

2.33 xG

Off rebounds

1 G on 4

0.32 xG

1 G on 2

0.16 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: VGK went 5-for-27, TOR 0-for-18. VGK scored 3 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

A. Hill

VGK · 18/21 · .857

-0.4

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger0/10.2+0.2

Medium3/171.9-1.1

Low0/360.5+0.5

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

A. Stolarz

TOR · 25/30 · .833

-1.4

saved above expected

D-

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger2/51.6-0.4

Medium3/131.4-1.6

Low1/320.6-0.4

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

77 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

VGK

41 shots

Final

77 shots

TOR

36 shots

VGK TOR GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Each club shoots toward its own end — VGK left, TOR right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

M. Stone

#61 · R · VGK

2 G · 1 A · 3 SOG · 18:19 on ice · +3

M. Knies

#23 · L · TOR

0 G · 2 A · 3 SOG · 20:09 on ice

J. Eichel

#9 · C · VGK

1 G · 1 A · 3 SOG · 19:16 on ice · +3

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Fri, Jan 23

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity

◆ By the ModelJul 12, 2:13 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Vegas should win this game, and the numbers agree. The model projects a 2.6–2.3 victory with the Golden Knights at 55% win probability, built on a fundamental edge in how the game actually plays out.

The Golden Knights own the underlying play by a significant margin. They're generating 54.0% of 5v5 expected goals against Toronto's 46.0%, a gap that reflects territorial dominance. That advantage extends to shot attempt share: Vegas leads 52.0% in Corsi, suggesting they'll consistently control the board and limit Toronto's offensive looks.

But here's where the edge grows sharper. Vegas is running cold on PDO—0.983 against Toronto's 1.002. That's a regression signal. The Knights are underperforming their shot quality; positive variance is inevitable, and it likely breaks in their favor. Both teams are sitting at 0% on high-danger goal and rebound rates, which means scoring will track closely to underlying shot metrics.

The rest advantage belongs to Vegas as well. Toronto arrives on one day of rest after a back-to-back; the Golden Knights have three days to prepare. That recovery gap matters in the third period.

Goaltending enters as a complication. J. Woll is caught on a back-to-back for the Leafs, raising the question of whether he starts or cedes to a backup. A tired starter is often worse than the alternative.

Players to Watch

Vegas: Tomas Hertl operates at 0.88 xG/60 with five goals and 17 assists on 4.3% shooting. Brandon Saad carries 0.91 xG/60 with three goals and six assists on 4.1% shooting, but is marked inactive.

Toronto: Auston Matthews leads at 1.10 xG/60 with 17 goals and 13 assists on 10.6% shooting. John Tavares follows at 0.91 xG/60 with 15 goals, 24 assists, and three high-danger goals on 12.4% shooting.

Vegas's defensive weak link is Rasmus Andersson; Toronto's is Bo Groulx. If the model's edge holds, Vegas's underlying advantage should convert before either defense is exposed.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

VGK 55%

55%

VGK

Model favorite

55%

45%

VGK50TOR

VGK by 10 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score VGK 2.6–2.3 TOR; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

VGK← edge

edge →TOR

54.0%46.0%

52.0%45.0%

2.522.24

2.112.67

2.122.09

2.102.52

0.9831.002

VGK holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.983 vs 1.002) says TOR has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · Last 10

VGK

7-2-1

+14 GD · 3d rest

TOR

5-2-3

+0 GD · 1d rest

0.983

VGK PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

1.002

TOR PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

Where the edges live

The Golden Knights own the underlying play — 54.0% 5v5 xG vs 46.0%.
The Golden Knights drive Corsi at 52.0% — expect territorial tilt.

Regression watch

The Golden Knights' PDO is 0.983 — running cold, due for positive regression.

Things to watch

The Golden Knights own the underlying play — 54.0% 5v5 xG vs 46.0%.
The Golden Knights drive Corsi at 52.0% — expect territorial tilt.
J. Woll is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
The Golden Knights' PDO is 0.983 — running cold, due for positive regression.
The Golden Knights have 2 more days of rest.

Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score

VGK

Expected in goal

A. Hill

3 days rest.882 last start

Backup Akira Schmid · -1.0 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

TOR

Expected in goal

J. Woll

back-to-back.951 last start

Backup Joseph Woll · -6.6 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG

VGK

Brandon Saad3G 6A

0.91 xG/60 · 1 HD · 4.1% sh

Tomas Hertl5G 17A

0.88 xG/60 · 1 HD · 4.3% sh

TOR

Auston Matthews17G 13A

1.10 xG/60 · 1 HD · 10.6% sh

John Tavares15G 24A

0.91 xG/60 · 3 HD · 12.4% sh

Keep going

Where to next

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