The Ducks stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 2.63–3.80 and won anyway.
Anaheim won a game it had no business winning. The Flames dominated possession and chance creation—controlling 59% of expected goals at 5v5 and 62% of shot attempts—yet lost 4-3 in overtime anyway.
This is what stolen wins look like. The Ducks generated 2.63 xG and scored 4 goals. The Flames created 3.80 xG and scored 3. For Anaheim to win despite being outshot and outchanced that badly, goaltending had to be the swing, and it was: L. Dostal saved 32 of 35 shots for a 0.914 save percentage that was 0.80 goals better than expected, while D. Wolf stopped 17 of 21 for a 0.810 mark that cost Calgary 1.37 goals relative to his workload.
The underlying story was Calgary's dominance colliding with Anaheim's execution. The Flames had 6 high-danger chances to Anaheim's 4. They crashed the net effectively, creating 4 rebound chances and converting 1—scrappy, directional hockey that should have paid dividends. It didn't, because the Ducks were lethal elsewhere. Anaheim converted 4 goals on 28 rush chances, a rate that suggests Calgary was vulnerable in transition.
The turning point came at 02:54 of overtime when B. Sennecke buried a wrist shot from the high slot, ending a game the Flames should have won outright in regulation.
