The Islanders stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 2.01–2.35 and won anyway.
The Islanders won 4-0 despite a disadvantage in shot quality. The Flyers generated 2.35 expected goals to the Islanders' 2.01. Yet goaltending and execution diverged sharply: I. Sorokin posted a 1.000 save percentage while the Flyers' S. Ersson finished at 0.826.
Sorokin turned away all 21 shots despite facing 2.35 xG, a +2.35 save above expectation. Ersson surrendered four goals on 23 shots, allowing 1.99 more than his xG of 2.01 suggested. The gap between expected and actual was wide enough to cover the entire margin.
The Flyers held 48 percent of shot attempts and created three high-danger chances to New York's two. On the board, they outworked their opponent. In execution, they wasted every chance—underperforming their xG by 2.35 goals. The Islanders, conversely, overperformed theirs by 1.99 through rush opportunities and net-crashing that turned loose pucks into goals. On a neutral night, this game lived close to 2.01 vs 2.35. On this one, goaltending and conversion separated them completely.
M. Barzal recorded a goal and an assist in 17:29, while A. Duclair added two assists in 16:02. Jean-Gabriel Pageau scored twice, including a wrist shot from the high slot in the third period.
