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← Thu, Jan 29 · the slate
Breakdown · COL at MTL

Canadiens pull away from the Avalanche

FinalThu, Jan 29
COLColorado Avalanche3MTLMontreal Canadiens7
The verdict · stolen

The Canadiens stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 3.79–2.88 and won anyway.

COL 3 · MTL 7
◆ By the ModelJul 12, 3:01 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Montreal's 7-3 victory masks a stark underlying story: Colorado controlled 57% of expected goals, yet Montreal turned a 2.88–3.79 xG deficit into a 7-3 scoreline. This wasn't dominance in open play — it was clinical execution in the spots that mattered.

The gap between xG and result reveals two truths. J. Dobes (MTL) stopped 26 of 29 shots (0.897 SV%), overperforming his expected outcome by 0.79 goals. S. Wedgewood (COL) faced 28 shots, allowed 21, and underperformed his xG by 4.12 — a chasm that explains the lopsided final. Montreal, meanwhile, finished 4 for 4 on high-danger chances; Colorado generated 9 but converted only 2 of them.

The rush proved decisive. Montreal scored 6 times off 29 rush attempts; Colorado scored twice from 27. That efficiency margin — and Juraj Slafkovský's snap shot from the doorstep in the third period — gave Montreal breathing room that xG suggests they shouldn't have had.

Montreal created 3 rebound opportunities and capitalized on 1. Colorado did the same: 3 rebounds, 1 goal. The battle at the net was even; the results were not.

This was variance tilting heavily in Montreal's favor — they overperformed their xG by 4.12 goals — but it didn't emerge from nowhere. High-danger finishing and rush execution are repeatable skills, not randomness. Whether this performance was elite execution or fortune likely won't resolve until these teams play again.

Final: COL 3 – MTL 7

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · Jan 29
COL
3
MTL
7

Canadiens pull away from the Avalanche

Chances 3.8 – 2.9Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Avalanche deserved better.

Expected goals · chance value
COL
3.79
MTL
2.88
57% of the chances43%

The board read COL 3, MTL 7. The chances read COL 3.8, MTL 2.9.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
MTL
+4.1
goals above expected
MTL2.88 expected · 7 scored
Expected
Scored
COL3.79 expected · 3 scored
Expected
Scored

The Canadiens scored 4.1 more than their chances were worth. That does not repeat.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 00:56MTLN. Dobson0–1
  2. P1 04:09COLB. Nelson1–1
  3. P1 05:51MTLN. SuzukiPP1–2
  4. P1 07:33MTLN. SuzukiSH1–3
  5. P2 16:36MTLJ. Evans1–4
  6. P2 17:16MTLK. Dach1–5
  7. P2 18:06COLJ. Kiviranta2–5
+3 more on the full breakdown
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
COL
40 shots
3
Final
83 shots
MTL
43 shots
7
COL attackMTL attack
COL MTL Goal
40
shots · 3 in
43
shots · 7 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
COLMTL
2 / 9
2.17 xG
High danger
4 / 4
0.96 xG
0 / 8
0.91 xG
Medium
2 / 12
1.26 xG
1 / 45
0.71 xG
Low
1 / 36
0.67 xG

The Canadiens buried 4 of 4 high-danger looks.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
B+
J. Dobes
+0.8
MTL · 26/29
F
S. Wedgewood
−4.1
COL · 21/28
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Canadiens pull away from the Avalanche

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 5–9
  1. 00:56MTLN. Dobson(L. Hutson, J. Slafkovský)0–1
  2. 04:09COLB. Nelson(J. Manson, S. Girard)1–1
  3. 05:51MTLN. Suzukipower play(I. Demidov, L. Hutson)1–2
  4. 07:33MTLN. Suzukishorthanded(O. Kapanen, M. Matheson)1–3
2ndshots 12–12
  1. 16:36MTLJ. Evans(K. Guhle, Z. Bolduc)1–4
  2. 17:16MTLK. Dach(Z. Bolduc)1–5
  3. 18:06COLJ. Kiviranta(S. Malinski, J. Drury)2–5
3rdshots 12–7
  1. 04:38COLR. Colton(V. Nichushkin)3–5
  2. 05:45MTLA. Carrier(N. Suzuki, K. Dach)3–6
  3. 09:55MTLJ. Slafkovský(O. Kapanen, I. Demidov)3–7

score reads COL–MTL

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
2.88
MTL chances
Goals their shots were worth
+4.1
Finishing
Goals above what those chances were worth
1.086
MTL puck luck
Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way
45.6%
Shot attempts
Under half — they were outshot
Split by club

Who controlled the game

3.79Expected goals2.88
COL 57% of the chance quality
29Shots on goal28
9High-danger chances4
62All attempts (Corsi)52
Adjusted for score: COL 62% · MTL 39%
Faceoffs · MTL won50%off62%neu50%def
Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected
High dangerslot & crease
COL2 / 9 · 2.17 xG
MTL4 / 4 · 0.96 xG
Medium dangermid-range
COL0 / 8 · 0.91 xG
MTL2 / 12 · 1.26 xG
Low dangerperimeter & point
COL1 / 45 · 0.71 xG
MTL1 / 36 · 0.67 xG

MTL went 4-for-4 from high danger on 0.96 expected goals — 3.0 above expected.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual
COL
3 G · 3.79 xG · -0.8
MTL
7 G · 2.88 xG · +4.1
012345678

COL finished -0.8 against expected, MTL +4.1.

Source · Backcheck xG model
Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots
COL
SNAP3/32
BACKHAND0/2
SLAP0/3
TIP IN0/3
DEFLECTED0/0
WRAP AROUND0/0
WRIST0/0
OTHER0/22
MTL
SNAP6/27
BACKHAND1/5
SLAP0/4
TIP IN0/3
DEFLECTED0/2
WRAP AROUND0/1
WRIST0/1
OTHER0/9
COL
MTL
Off the rush
2 G on 27
2.48 xG
6 G on 29
2.42 xG
Off rebounds
1 G on 3
0.61 xG
1 G on 3
0.31 xG

Snap shots carried the volume: COL went 3-for-32, MTL 6-for-27. MTL scored 6 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG
Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD
High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi
Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.
Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx
Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO
Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected
S. Wedgewood
COL · 21/28 · .750
-4.1
saved above expected
F
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger4/41.0-3.0
Medium2/121.3-0.7
Low1/360.7-0.3

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

J. Dobes
MTL · 26/29 · .897
+0.8
saved above expected
B+
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger2/92.2+0.2
Medium0/80.9+0.9
Low1/450.7-0.3

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

83 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates
COL
40 shots
3
Final
83 shots
MTL
43 shots
7
COL attackMTL attack
COL MTL Goal

Each club shoots toward its own end — COL left, MTL right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first
Three stars · computed, not voted
N. Suzuki
#14 · C · MTL
2 G · 1 A · 4 SOG · 17:42 on ice · +2
L. Hutson
#48 · D · MTL
0 G · 2 A · 0 SOG · 20:23 on ice · +2
J. Slafkovský
#20 · L · MTL
1 G · 1 A · 4 SOG · 16:57 on ice · +1
Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Thu, Jan 29
Open the pre-game read
Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelJul 12, 2:59 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Colorado should win this game. The model projects 56% win probability for the Avalanche and a 2.8-2.5 scoreline in their favor, built on territorial dominance that figures to persist.

The Avalanche own the underlying play at 57.0% expected goals at 5v5, compared to Montreal's 48.0%. Their Corsi edge of 57.0% to 49.0% tells the same story: Colorado will spend the game in Montreal's end and control the territorial flow.

Both teams are running hot on PDO—the Avalanche at 1.021, the Canadiens at 1.018—which introduces a complication. PDO regression is real. Both teams face normalization headwinds that will likely erode some of the model's baseline confidence.

Rest tilts toward Colorado substantially. Montreal arrives on one day of recovery; the Avalanche have four. That gap compounds through sixty minutes. J. Dobes is working a back-to-back, a factor to monitor for Montreal's goaltending. Colorado carries no corresponding liability in goal.

Artturi Lehkonen drives Colorado's offense at 1.11 expected goals per sixty minutes, posting 18 goals, 22 assists, and 6 high-danger goals on a 14.9% shooting rate. Ross Colton contributes 1.10 xG/60 with 7 goals, 15 assists, and 1 high-danger goal on a 4.9% shooting rate.

Montreal counters with Cole Caufield, who carries 33 goals and 16 assists at 0.97 xG/60, though only 1 high-danger goal alongside a 20.0% shooting rate. Oliver Kapanen provides 0.83 xG/60 support with 19 goals, 12 assists, and 4 high-danger goals at a 17.8% shooting rate.

Nazem Kadri functions as Colorado's defensive weakness; Mike Matheson plays that role for Montreal. Both teams' respective liabilities will face opposing forwards seeking to exploit mismatches.

Colorado's territorial command, rest advantage, and goaltending setup create the edge. PDO regression introduces uncertainty, but not enough to flip the Avalanche's lean.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

COL 56%
56%
COL
Model favorite
56%
44%
COL50MTL

COL by 12 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score COL 2.8–2.5 MTL; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG
COL← edge
edge →MTL
57.0%48.0%
57.0%49.0%
3.032.41
2.302.62
2.632.24
1.561.96
1.0211.018

COL holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.021 vs 1.018) says COL has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
COL
4-4-2
+3 GD · 4d rest
MTL
5-4-1
+0 GD · 1d rest
1.021
COL PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.018
MTL PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it

Keys to the game

Where the edges live
  • The Avalanche own the underlying play — 57.0% 5v5 xG vs 48.0%.
  • The Avalanche drive Corsi at 57.0% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
  • The Canadiens' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.
  • The Avalanche's PDO is 1.021 — running hot, expect some regression.
Things to watch
  • The Avalanche own the underlying play — 57.0% 5v5 xG vs 48.0%.
  • The Avalanche drive Corsi at 57.0% — expect territorial tilt.
  • J. Dobes is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
  • The Canadiens' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.
  • The Avalanche have 3 more days of rest.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score
COL
Expected in goal
M. Blackwood
4 days rest.970 last start
Backup Scott Wedgewood · +23.1 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

MTL
Expected in goal
J. Dobes
back-to-back.941 last start
Backup Jakub Dobes · +17.3 GSAx this season
Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG
COL
Artturi Lehkonen18G 22A
1.11 xG/60 · 6 HD · 14.9% sh
Ross Colton7G 15A
1.10 xG/60 · 1 HD · 4.9% sh
MTL
Cole Caufield33G 16A
0.97 xG/60 · 1 HD · 20.0% sh
Oliver Kapanen19G 12A
0.83 xG/60 · 4 HD · 17.8% sh
Keep going

Where to next

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