Motion-blurred skater in a Florida Panthers sweater

Breakdown · BOS at FLA

Panthers edge the Bruins in a shootout

Final / OTWed, Feb 4

The verdict · coin flip

The Panthers won a genuine coin flip — neither side controlled the run of play.

BOS 4 · FLA 5

◆ By the ModelJul 12, 3:56 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Panthers won despite xG suggesting they shouldn't. The Bruins held a slight advantage in expected goals (4.18–4.12), but Florida's power play and goaltending bent the result—Brad Marchand's backhander deciding it in the shootout.

The numbers hide the tighter game: Florida shot 0/8 on high-danger chances yet overperformed their xG by 0.88 goals. You don't do that without scoring elsewhere. The Panthers did—via power play (2 goals on 12 shots, 1.65 xG) and goaltending. J. Korpisalo (BOS) was perfect on high-danger (8 for 8), but S. Bobrovsky (FLA) carried the load: 25 saves on 29 shots (0.862 SV%) to Korpisalo's 22/26 (0.846 SV%).

Both teams scored equally from the rush: three goals each (Panthers 3 on 31 chances, Bruins 3 on 29). Florida generated more rebound chances (eight to six) and converted one from each. A. Lundell paced the Panthers with 1 goal and 2 assists in 24:18. H. Lindholm set up both Boston goals from 25:01. U. Balinskis added 1 goal and 1 assist.

When xG are this tight, shootouts decide on moments. Marchand's backhander in the shootout was the moment.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page

Final · SO · Feb 4

BOS

FLA

Panthers edge the Bruins in a shootout

Chances 4.2 – 4.1Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

Dead even on chances. The Panthers took it anyway.

Expected goals · chance value

BOS

4.18

FLA

4.12

50% of the chances50%

The board read BOS 4, FLA 5. The chances read BOS 4.2, FLA 4.1.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

FLA

+0.9

goals above expected

FLA4.12 expected · 5 scored

Expected

Scored

BOS4.18 expected · 4 scored

Expected

Scored

Both sides finished close to what their chances were worth. This one was earned on the ice.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

Every goal, in order

P1 04:22FLAE. Luostarinen0–1
P1 07:18BOSM. Eyssimont1–1
P1 12:43BOSM. Eyssimont2–1
P2 00:30FLAU. BalinskisPP2–2
P2 02:47FLAM. TkachukPP2–3
P2 18:33FLAA. LundellSH2–4
P3 07:52BOSM. Kastelic3–4

+4 more on the full breakdown

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

BOS

48 shots

Final

97 shots

FLA

49 shots

BOS FLA GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Shootout goals are not shots and are not drawn; the scoreboard above counts goals from the shot log.

shots · 5 in

shots · 6 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

BOSFLA

1 / 7

1.53 xG

High danger

0 / 8

1.86 xG

3 / 20

2.19 xG

Medium

4 / 15

1.66 xG

0 / 41

0.47 xG

Low

0 / 37

0.60 xG

High-danger looks: BOS 1 of 7, FLA 0 of 8.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

S. Bobrovsky

+0.2

FLA · 25/29

J. Korpisalo

+0.1

BOS · 22/26

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

Panthers edge the Bruins in a shootout

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 08 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 9–8

04:22FLAE. Luostarinen0–1
07:18BOSM. Eyssimont(A. Steeves, H. Lindholm)1–1
12:43BOSM. Eyssimont(M. Khusnutdinov, A. Peeke)2–1

2ndshots 11–10

00:30FLAU. Balinskispower play(M. Tkachuk, A. Lundell)2–2
02:47FLAM. Tkachukpower play(A. Lundell, U. Balinskis)2–3
18:33FLAA. Lundellshorthanded(S. Reinhart)2–4

3rdshots 7–5

07:52BOSM. Kastelic(C. McAvoy, H. Lindholm)3–4
10:30BOSC. Mittelstadtpower play(D. Pastrnak, M. Geekie)4–4

OTshots 2–3no goals

00:00FLAA. Lundellpower play4–4
00:00BOSV. Arvidssonpower play4–4
00:00FLAB. Marchandpower play4–4

score reads BOS–FLA

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

4.12

FLA chances

Goals their shots were worth

+0.9

Finishing

Goals above what those chances were worth

1.008

FLA puck luck

About 1.000 — a normal night for bounces

46.9%

Shot attempts

Under half — they were outshot

Split by club

Who controlled the game

4.18Expected goals4.12

BOS 50% of the chance quality

29Shots on goal26

7High-danger chances8

68All attempts (Corsi)60

Adjusted for score: BOS 55% · FLA 45%

Faceoffs · FLA won48%off52%neu41%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

BOS1 / 7 · 1.53 xG

FLA0 / 8 · 1.86 xG

Medium dangermid-range

BOS3 / 20 · 2.19 xG

FLA4 / 15 · 1.66 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

BOS0 / 41 · 0.47 xG

FLA0 / 37 · 0.60 xG

FLA went 4-for-15 from medium danger on 1.66 expected goals — 2.3 above expected.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

BOS

4 G · 4.18 xG · -0.2

FLA

5 G · 4.12 xG · +0.9

0123456

BOS finished -0.2 against expected, FLA +0.9.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

BOS

WRIST3/25

TIP IN0/7

BACKHAND0/8

SNAP0/0

SLAP0/3

DEFLECTED1/1

POKE0/1

BAT0/0

OTHER0/23

FLA

WRIST1/25

TIP IN1/7

BACKHAND1/5

SNAP1/5

SLAP0/1

DEFLECTED0/1

POKE0/0

BAT0/1

OTHER0/15

BOS

FLA

Off the rush

3 G on 29

2.84 xG

3 G on 31

2.57 xG

Off rebounds

1 G on 6

0.77 xG

1 G on 8

1.41 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: BOS went 3-for-25, FLA 1-for-25. BOS scored 3 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

J. Korpisalo

BOS · 22/26 · .846

+0.1

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger0/81.9+1.9

Medium4/151.7-2.3

Low0/370.6+0.6

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

S. Bobrovsky

FLA · 25/29 · .862

+0.2

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger1/71.5+0.5

Medium3/202.2-0.8

Low0/410.5+0.5

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

97 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

BOS

48 shots

Final

97 shots

FLA

49 shots

BOS FLA GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Shootout goals are not shots and are not drawn; the scoreboard above counts goals from the shot log.

Each club shoots toward its own end — BOS left, FLA right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

A. Lundell

#15 · C · FLA

1 G · 2 A · 4 SOG · 24:18 on ice · +1

H. Lindholm

#27 · D · BOS

0 G · 2 A · 2 SOG · 25:01 on ice · +2

U. Balinskis

#26 · D · FLA

1 G · 1 A · 2 SOG · 21:26 on ice

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Wed, Feb 4

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity

◆ By the ModelJul 12, 3:54 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects a 2.5–2.7 goal spread with the Panthers at 54% win probability—about as close to a pick'em as you'll find.

Boston has surged over its last 10 games with a 7-1-2 record. Florida has slid to -7 goal differential in that same stretch. Yet season-long metrics complicate that narrative: the Panthers control play at 52.0% Corsi and 49.0% expected goals, indicating territorial dominance throughout the season. Boston's 1.023 PDO—well above neutral—signals they're overperforming and vulnerable to regression.

The Bruins catch a rest advantage, arriving on three days off while the Panthers have one. That matters in net: S. Bobrovsky is on a back-to-back and may cede to a backup start.

Players to Watch

Viktor Arvidsson (18G, 24A, 1.04 xG/60, 2 high-danger goals, 13.0% shooting) anchors Boston's attack. Tanner Jeannot (6G, 14A, 0.75 xG/60, 2 high-danger goals, 8.3% shooting) operates alongside him. For Florida, Sam Bennett (18G, 19A, 0.97 xG/60, 6 high-danger goals, 13.1% shooting) generates high volume, while Brad Marchand (17G, 9A, 0.93 xG/60, 3 high-danger goals, 19.5% shooting) is the volatility play—that shooting percentage is unsustainable and masks underlying shot quality.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

FLA 54%

54%

FLA

Model favorite

46%

54%

BOS50FLA

FLA by 8 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score BOS 2.5–2.7 FLA; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

BOS← edge

edge →FLA

47.0%49.0%

49.0%52.0%

2.392.48

2.672.56

2.221.98

1.822.21

1.0230.989

FLA holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.023 vs 0.989) says BOS has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · Last 10

BOS

7-1-2

+8 GD · 3d rest

FLA

4-6-0

-7 GD · 1d rest

1.023

BOS PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

0.989

FLA PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

Where the edges live

The Panthers drive Corsi at 52.0% — expect territorial tilt.

Regression watch

The Bruins' PDO is 1.023 — running hot, expect some regression.

Things to watch

The Panthers drive Corsi at 52.0% — expect territorial tilt.
S. Bobrovsky is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
The Bruins are the hotter team by points pace (7-1-2 in their last 10).
The Panthers are underwater at -7 goal differential over their last 10.
The Bruins' PDO is 1.023 — running hot, expect some regression.
The Bruins have 2 more days of rest.

Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score

BOS

Expected in goal

J. Swayman

3 days rest.891 last start

Backup Jeremy Swayman · +28.8 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

FLA

Expected in goal

S. Bobrovsky

back-to-back.750 last start

Backup Sergei Bobrovsky · -12.2 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG

BOS

Viktor Arvidsson18G 24A

1.04 xG/60 · 2 HD · 13.0% sh

Tanner Jeannot6G 14A

0.75 xG/60 · 2 HD · 8.3% sh

FLA

Sam Bennett18G 19A

0.97 xG/60 · 6 HD · 13.1% sh

Brad Marchand17G 9A

0.93 xG/60 · 3 HD · 19.5% sh

Keep going

Where to next

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