The Canadiens won a genuine coin flip — neither side controlled the run of play.
Expected goals predicted a near-even contest—6.89–6.84 favoring Winnipeg—yet Montreal won 5–1. The gap wasn't luck; it was goaltending.
S. Montembeault was dominant. He saved 36 of 37 shots for a 0.973 save percentage, performing 5.89 goals above expected. That alone accounts for the four-goal margin. C. Hellebuyck faced an easier workload (22 of 26 saves) but finished at 0.846, and the Jets paid the price.
The Jets dictated play. They held 58% of shot attempts (37–27) and matched Montreal's expected goals at 6.89. High-danger chances went 14–16 in favor of Montreal. The problem: Winnipeg converted zero of its 14 high-danger opportunities. That won't happen often.
Montreal's edge came in efficiency. They scored three goals on 22 rush attempts—lethal conversion. Winnipeg generated 11 rebound opportunities but buried none. Montreal created only four rebound chances and converted one. In close play, that difference mattered.
Phillip Danault's wrist shot from the top of the circles provided an early spark. Montreal didn't relent.
