The Islanders stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 3.15–3.91 and won anyway.
The Islanders' 3-1 win was a highway robbery. New Jersey controlled 55% of expected goals at 5-on-5 but lost anyway—the Devils' shot volume and chance quality meant nothing against I. Sorokin's wall.
The Devils dictated play by every traditional measure: 63% of shot attempts (24–14 on goal) and 9–5 in high-danger chances. But conversion and goaltending told a different story. New Jersey went 0 for 9 on high-danger attempts, an invisible performance when you need to execute. The Islanders were clinical: 3 for 5 in the same situations (60%), turning their limited opportunities into goals.
I. Sorokin made 23 of 24 saves and finished +2.91 goals above expected. J. Allen was +1.15 vs expected, stopping the puck 11 times from 13 attempts. Sorokin's superiority was the story.
Mathew Barzal's wrist shot from the point in the third period (19:36) punctuated the Islanders' efficiency—a goal that materialized when New Jersey's high-danger attempts did not. The Devils underperformed their xG by 2.91 goals, a reflection of missed opportunities and a goaltender who refused to bend.
