The Islanders stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 4.58–2.20 and won anyway.
The Islanders won 5-4 despite generating just 2.20 expected goals to Florida's 4.58. This was a heist — the Panthers created the better chances (68% of expected goals), but finishing and goaltending flipped the scoreboard.
S. Bobrovsky faced a tougher assignment than his 21/26 save line suggests. He underperformed his xG by 2.80 goals, meaning the Islanders converted chances a goaltender typically denies. D. Rittich overperformed by 0.58 — Florida went 0 for 7 on high-danger chances while New York scored on low-danger opportunities.
The Panthers' quality-per-shot advantage was real: 0.059 xG per attempt versus New York's 0.042. The Islanders held 44% of shot attempts (26–33) but made every dangerous look count.
Anders Lee's wrist shot from the doorstep at 19:28 of the third period was the inflection point. New York's scrappier execution turned the goaltending variance into a win.
The Islanders were lethal off the rush, converting 5 on 24 chances; Florida managed 4 on 32. The Islanders created 3 rebound opportunities, Florida created 10; neither team converted any.
This wasn't about effort. It was about outcome variance working in the wrong team's favor — and New York taking the gift.
