Motion-blurred skater in a red sweater
Breakdown · CHI at UTA

Blackhawks shut out the Mammoth, 4-0

The verdict · stolen

The Blackhawks stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 2.28–2.56 and won anyway.

CHI 4 · UTA 0
◆ By the ModelJul 12, 5:52 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Chicago's dominance was less overwhelming than the scorecard suggests. The Mammoth carried the expected-goals advantage (2.56 to 2.28), which means Utah actually generated better shot quality—but couldn't finish. The Blackhawks, meanwhile, turned their limited chances into four goals.

Chicago finished 3 for 23 on rush attempts, and that efficiency mattered. Teuvo Teravainen's snap shot from the high slot proved the difference. The Mammoth answered with nothing; they mustered only three high-danger chances and converted zero. Utah's workload—28 shot attempts—suggested pressure, but the underlying numbers told a different story. K. Vejmelka faced those 28 attempts and allowed 1.72 more goals than expected. A. Soderblom stopped 2.56 above expectation, posting a perfect 22-for-22 night.

The gap between what the numbers promised and what happened is instructive. Utah dominated possession at 44% of shot attempts (22 to 28), yet that volume never translated to dangerous position play. Chicago, with fewer attempts, concentrated their threat—six high-danger chances to Utah's three. The Blackhawks made their advantages count. Teravainen finished with two goals; A. Vlasic and C. Murphy each contributed an assist.

This wasn't a game of parity dressed up in a blowout. It was an execution gap—Utah didn't miss by a little, and Chicago didn't get lucky. The Mammoth left points on the table by failing to convert high-quality looks. The Blackhawks punished every mistake.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · Mar 1
CHI
4
UTA
0

Blackhawks shut out the Mammoth, 4-0

Chances 2.3 – 2.6Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

Dead even on chances. The Blackhawks took it anyway.

Expected goals · chance value
CHI
2.28
UTA
2.56
47% of the chances53%

The board read CHI 4, UTA 0. The chances read CHI 2.3, UTA 2.6.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
CHI
+1.7
goals above expected
CHI2.28 expected · 4 scored
Expected
Scored
UTA2.56 expected · 0 scored
Expected
Scored

The Blackhawks scored 1.7 more than their chances were worth. That does not repeat.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 19:05CHIT. TeravainenPP1–0
  2. P2 11:38CHIN. Foligno2–0
  3. P2 13:07CHIL. Slaggert3–0
  4. P3 01:25CHIT. TeravainenSH4–0
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
CHI
37 shots
4
Final
75 shots
UTA
38 shots
0
CHI attackUTA attack
CHI UTA Goal
37
shots · 4 in
38
shots · 0 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
CHIUTA
0 / 3
0.58 xG
High danger
0 / 6
1.40 xG
3 / 11
1.13 xG
Medium
0 / 5
0.55 xG
1 / 34
0.57 xG
Low
0 / 40
0.61 xG

The Mammoth went 0 for 6 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
A+
A. Soderblom
+2.6
CHI · 22/22
F
K. Vejmelka
−1.7
UTA · 24/28
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Blackhawks shut out the Mammoth, 4-0

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 13–8
  1. 19:05CHIT. Teravainenpower play(T. Bertuzzi)1–0
2ndshots 9–10
  1. 11:38CHIN. Foligno2–0
  2. 13:07CHIL. Slaggert(O. Moore, A. Levshunov)3–0
3rdshots 6–4
  1. 01:25CHIT. Teravainenshorthanded(A. Vlasic, C. Murphy)4–0

score reads CHI–UTA

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
2.28
CHI chances
Goals their shots were worth
+1.7
Finishing
Goals above what those chances were worth
1.083
CHI puck luck
Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way
48.5%
Shot attempts
Under half — they were outshot
Split by club

Who controlled the game

2.28Expected goals2.56
UTA 53% of the chance quality
28Shots on goal22
3High-danger chances6
48All attempts (Corsi)51
Adjusted for score: CHI 44% · UTA 56%
Faceoffs · UTA won57%off87%neu60%def
Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected
High dangerslot & crease
CHI0 / 3 · 0.58 xG
UTA0 / 6 · 1.40 xG
Medium dangermid-range
CHI3 / 11 · 1.13 xG
UTA0 / 5 · 0.55 xG
Low dangerperimeter & point
CHI1 / 34 · 0.57 xG
UTA0 / 40 · 0.61 xG

CHI went 3-for-11 from medium danger on 1.13 expected goals — 1.9 above expected.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual
CHI
4 G · 2.28 xG · +1.7
UTA
0 G · 2.56 xG · -2.6
012345

CHI finished +1.7 against expected, UTA -2.6.

Source · Backcheck xG model
Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots
CHI
SNAP3/20
WRIST0/11
SLAP0/1
TIP IN0/3
BACKHAND1/2
WRAP AROUND0/0
OTHER0/11
UTA
SNAP0/12
WRIST0/11
SLAP0/10
TIP IN0/2
BACKHAND0/2
WRAP AROUND0/1
OTHER0/13
CHI
UTA
Off the rush
3 G on 23
1.55 xG
0 G on 22
1.92 xG
Off rebounds
0 G on 2
0.35 xG
0 G on 3
0.46 xG

Snap shots carried the volume: CHI went 3-for-20, UTA 0-for-12. CHI scored 3 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG
Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD
High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi
Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.
Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx
Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO
Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected
A. Soderblom
CHI · 22/22 · 1.000
+2.6
saved above expected
A+
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger0/61.4+1.4
Medium0/50.6+0.6
Low0/400.6+0.6

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

K. Vejmelka
UTA · 24/28 · .857
-1.7
saved above expected
F
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger0/30.6+0.6
Medium3/111.1-1.9
Low1/340.6-0.4

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

75 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates
CHI
37 shots
4
Final
75 shots
UTA
38 shots
0
CHI attackUTA attack
CHI UTA Goal

Each club shoots toward its own end — CHI left, UTA right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first
Three stars · computed, not voted
T. Teravainen
#86 · C · CHI
2 G · 0 A · 4 SOG · 17:53 on ice · +1
A. Vlasic
#72 · D · CHI
0 G · 1 A · 1 SOG · 24:24 on ice · +1
C. Murphy
#5 · D · CHI
0 G · 1 A · 1 SOG · 21:38 on ice · +2
Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Sun, Mar 1
Open the pre-game read
Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelJul 12, 5:04 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Utah's Mammoth are the model's choice here. The projection: a 2.3–2.9 game favoring the Mammoth at 61% win probability.

Utah's form backs this. They're 6–4–0 in their last 10, while Chicago sits at –16 goal differential over the same stretch. The gap is real.

The underlying play is where Utah owns the advantage. At 5v5, the Mammoth generate 52.0% expected goals compared to Chicago's 42.0%—a 10-point gap. Utah's territorial dominance shows in Corsi too: 53.0% to 46.0%. Neither team's PDO is inflated (Utah at 1.003, Chicago at 0.996), so both advantages are earned.

Expect a territorial tilt favoring Utah.

Watch Tyler Bertuzzi for Chicago. He has 0.85 xG/60, 20 goals, 15 assists, and 7 high-danger goals on an 18.0% shooting rate. Connor Bedard sits at 0.82 xG/60 with 17 goals, 27 assists, 5 high-danger goals, and an 11.8% shooting rate.

Dylan Guenther leads Utah at 1.02 xG/60 with 28 goals, 15 assists, and 3 high-danger tallies—elite expected-goal production but low high-danger volume. Daniil But is at 1.01 xG/60 with 2 goals, 2 assists, and 1 high-danger goal on a 5.6% shooting rate—elite underlying metrics with minimal finished output.

The goaltending picture carries noise. Both K. Vejmelka and S. Knight are on back-to-backs, opening the door to backup starts or fatigued starters.

Chicago's defensive weak link is Anton Frondell. Utah's is Maveric Lamoureux. Neither team has solved the rebound or high-danger goal problem yet—both sitting at 0%, which is unsustainable.

Utah's territorial and underlying advantages are reflected in the model's edge. Both are earned, not lucky.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

UTA 61%
61%
UTA
Model favorite
39%
61%
CHI50UTA

UTA by 22 points of win probability — a clear lean. Projected score CHI 2.3–2.9 UTA; 17% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG
CHI← edge
edge →UTA
42.0%52.0%
46.0%53.0%
2.172.64
2.942.39
1.842.26
2.411.99
0.9961.003

UTA holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.996 vs 1.003) says UTA has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
CHI
2-6-2
-16 GD · 1d rest
UTA
6-4-0
+9 GD · 1d rest
0.996
CHI PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.003
UTA PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it

Keys to the game

Where the edges live
  • The Mammoth own the underlying play — 52.0% 5v5 xG vs 42.0%.
  • The Mammoth drive Corsi at 53.0% — expect territorial tilt.
Things to watch
  • The Mammoth own the underlying play — 52.0% 5v5 xG vs 42.0%.
  • The Mammoth drive Corsi at 53.0% — expect territorial tilt.
  • K. Vejmelka is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
  • S. Knight is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
  • The Mammoth are the hotter team by points pace (6-4-0 in their last 10).
  • The Blackhawks are underwater at -16 goal differential over their last 10.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score
CHI
Expected in goal
S. Knight
back-to-back.941 last start
Backup Spencer Knight · +10.9 GSAx this season
Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

UTA
Expected in goal
K. Vejmelka
back-to-back.913 last start
Backup Karel Vejmelka · +6.9 GSAx this season
Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG
CHI
Tyler Bertuzzi20G 15A
0.85 xG/60 · 7 HD · 18.0% sh
Connor Bedard17G 27A
0.82 xG/60 · 5 HD · 11.8% sh
UTA
Dylan Guenther28G 15A
1.02 xG/60 · 3 HD · 16.8% sh
Daniil But2G 2A
1.01 xG/60 · 1 HD · 5.6% sh
Keep going

Where to next