Blue Jackets steal one from the Rangers against the run of play

The model projects a 2.5-2.5 game with the Blue Jackets at 51% win probability—this is about as close to a pick'em as you'll find.

The Blue Jackets have the form advantage. They're 7-2-1 in their last 10, the hotter recent pace. The Rangers, meanwhile, are -11 goal differential in that same stretch—they're leaking chances.

The Blue Jackets also own the underlying play. At 5v5, they're at 52.0% expected goals and 51.0% Corsi; the Rangers sit at 48.0% and 49.0%. Those aren't enormous gaps, but they're consistent. The Rangers' 1.009 PDO over the season suggests some regression is coming, while the Blue Jackets' 1.003 keeps them closer to true talent. The Blue Jackets' weak defensive link is Conor Garland; the Rangers have Vincent Iorio as a liability.

The shot quality angle matters here. Boone Jenner generates 0.98 xG per 60 on a 9.6% shot rate—unusually low for his 11G, 21A pace, which suggests upside if luck normalizes. Mathieu Olivier adds 0.89 xG/60 with a 13.3% clip, giving the Blue Jackets two avenues to score. Olivier's 12 goals on heavier volume is the real threat; Jenner's 21 assists suggest he's threading plays, not just shooting.

For the Rangers, Adam Sykora is running hot at 20.0% shooting on 0.91 xG/60—that's unsustainable and masks a shallower underlying advantage than his three goals indicate. Gabe Perreault (0.79 xG/60, 8G, 11A) is the steadier contributor. Neither team scores much from high-danger chances (both at 0% HD goal rate) or off rebounds (0% for both), which flattens the offensive ceiling on both sides.

The Blue Jackets project to control the game and should be favored. But 51% is the fair number for a team with a modest underlying edge and only a recent-form cushion to show for it. The Rangers aren't without recourse—their PDO advantage, while small, is real, and Sykora's heater could hold. That's why this plays as a coin flip, not a Blue Jackets lean.