The Avalanche earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
Colorado beat Los Angeles 4–2 using the kind of goal-scoring efficiency that doesn't show up in expected-goals models. The Avalanche generated five high-danger chances and finished 0 for 5. They scored two from low-danger spots—shots goaltenders should stop—and added two more off the rush. Yet they still dominated.
The underlying numbers confirm it: Colorado controlled 71% of expected goals (4.23–1.75) and held Los Angeles to 35% of shot attempts (21–39 on goal). The Avalanche's shots were sharper, too. They generated 0.054 xG per attempt versus the Kings' 0.038, the kind of edge that compounds over a full game.
A. Forsberg couldn't overcome the deficit. He stopped 35 of 38 shots (0.921 SV%, +1.23 vs expected) and was perfect on all five high-danger chances he faced—typically the stats of a stolen game. Instead, he got a loss. Colorado's control was simply too total; goaltending brilliance couldn't stop the tide.
Martin Necas's wrist shot from the point (P3, 19:58) crystallized what the numbers had already decided. M. Blackwood earned the win by managing 19 saves on 21 shots (0.905 SV%), nothing special, just steady while his teammates imposed their will.