Backcheck
Pick club
Motion-blurred skater in a Columbus Blue Jackets sweater
← Tue, Mar 3 · the slate
Breakdown · NSH at CBJ

Blue Jackets hold off the Predators

FinalTue, Mar 3
NSHNashville Predators2CBJColumbus Blue Jackets3
The verdict · coin flip

The Blue Jackets won a genuine coin flip — neither side controlled the run of play.

NSH 2 · CBJ 3
◆ By the ModelJul 12, 5:19 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Blue Jackets defeated the Predators 3-2 despite getting outflanked in high-danger chances—Nashville generated 7 to Columbus's 5, a gap that normally decides games. The expected goals were nearly identical (CBJ 3.66, NSH 3.42), making the scoreboard look closer than the underlying play. Nashville underperformed their expected goals by 1.42, a significant misfire from a team that created better opportunities.

Columbus's edge came from ruthless efficiency in transition: they scored 3 goals on 36 rush chances. That conversion rate is unsustainable, but it won this game. Meanwhile, Columbus's high-danger execution was wasteful—0 for 5 in those spots, a miss that should have cost them.

Goaltending decided the match. J. Greaves, with 21 of 23 saves (0.913 SV%), outperformed his expected save percentage by 1.14 goals. E. Merzlikins saved 3.4 goals above expected—the backup stole the show. For Nashville, J. Annunen made 24 of 27 saves (0.889 SV%), and his dominance on high-danger chances was acute: perfect on 5 HD shots. That mastery on dangerous looks kept Nashville in it despite their offensive struggles.

The turning point came early: Charlie Coyle's deflection from the doorstep in the third period (06:07) set the tone.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · Mar 3
NSH
2
CBJ
3

Blue Jackets hold off the Predators

Chances 3.4 – 3.7Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

Dead even on chances. The Blue Jackets took it anyway.

Expected goals · chance value
NSH
3.42
CBJ
3.66
48% of the chances52%

The board read NSH 2, CBJ 3. The chances read NSH 3.4, CBJ 3.7.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
CBJ
−0.7
goals above expected
CBJ3.66 expected · 3 scored
Expected
Scored
NSH3.42 expected · 2 scored
Expected
Scored

Both sides finished close to what their chances were worth. This one was earned on the ice.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 14:23CBJA. Fantilli0–1
  2. P1 19:32NSHF. ForsbergPP1–1
  3. P2 14:39NSHR. O'Reilly2–1
  4. P3 01:52CBJS. MonahanSH2–2
  5. P3 06:07CBJC. Coyle2–3
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
NSH
37 shots
2
Final
89 shots
CBJ
52 shots
3
NSH attackCBJ attack
NSH CBJ Goal
37
shots · 2 in
52
shots · 3 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
NSHCBJ
2 / 7
1.56 xG
High danger
0 / 5
0.99 xG
0 / 13
1.39 xG
Medium
2 / 18
1.96 xG
0 / 37
0.47 xG
Low
1 / 46
0.71 xG

High-danger looks: NSH 2 of 7, CBJ 0 of 5.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
A+
E. Merzlikins
+3.4
CBJ · 2/2
B+
J. Greaves
+1.4
CBJ · 21/23
+1 more on the full breakdown
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Blue Jackets hold off the Predators

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 10–9
  1. 14:23CBJA. Fantilli(K. Marchenko, M. Marchment)0–1
  2. 19:32NSHF. Forsbergpower play(S. Stamkos, L. Evangelista)1–1
2ndshots 8–10
  1. 14:39NSHR. O'Reilly2–1
3rdshots 7–8
  1. 01:52CBJS. Monahanshorthanded2–2
  2. 06:07CBJC. Coyle(D. Severson, D. Mateychuk)2–3

score reads NSH–CBJ

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
3.66
CBJ chances
Goals their shots were worth
−0.7
Finishing
Goals below what those chances were worth
1.008
CBJ puck luck
About 1.000 — a normal night for bounces
54.8%
Shot attempts
Over half — they had the puck more
Split by club

Who controlled the game

3.42Expected goals3.66
CBJ 52% of the chance quality
25Shots on goal27
7High-danger chances5
57All attempts (Corsi)69
Adjusted for score: NSH 46% · CBJ 54%
Faceoffs · CBJ won63%off38%neu47%def
Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected
High dangerslot & crease
NSH2 / 7 · 1.56 xG
CBJ0 / 5 · 0.99 xG
Medium dangermid-range
NSH0 / 13 · 1.39 xG
CBJ2 / 18 · 1.96 xG
Low dangerperimeter & point
NSH0 / 37 · 0.47 xG
CBJ1 / 46 · 0.71 xG

NSH went 0-for-13 from medium danger on 1.39 expected goals — 1.4 left on the table.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual
NSH
2 G · 3.42 xG · -1.4
CBJ
3 G · 3.66 xG · -0.7
01234

NSH finished -1.4 against expected, CBJ -0.7.

Source · Backcheck xG model
Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots
NSH
SNAP0/13
WRIST1/12
SLAP0/8
TIP IN0/1
BACKHAND0/1
DEFLECTED1/2
OTHER0/20
CBJ
SNAP1/19
WRIST1/20
SLAP0/2
TIP IN0/7
BACKHAND0/3
DEFLECTED1/1
OTHER0/17
NSH
CBJ
Off the rush
0 G on 22
2.27 xG
3 G on 36
2.76 xG
Off rebounds
1 G on 4
0.70 xG
0 G on 1
0.08 xG

Snap shots carried the volume: NSH went 0-for-13, CBJ 1-for-19. CBJ scored 3 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG
Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD
High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi
Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.
Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx
Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO
Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected
J. Annunen
NSH · 24/27 · .889
+0.7
saved above expected
B
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger0/51.0+1.0
Medium2/182.0-0.0
Low1/460.7-0.3

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

J. Greaves
CBJ · 21/23 · .913
+1.4
saved above expected
B+
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger2/71.6-0.4
Medium0/131.4+1.4
Low0/370.5+0.5

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

E. Merzlikins
CBJ · 2/2 · 1.000
+3.4
saved above expected
A+
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger2/71.6-0.4
Medium0/131.4+1.4
Low0/370.5+0.5

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

89 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates
NSH
37 shots
2
Final
89 shots
CBJ
52 shots
3
NSH attackCBJ attack
NSH CBJ Goal

Each club shoots toward its own end — NSH left, CBJ right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first
Three stars · computed, not voted
F. Forsberg
#9 · L · NSH
1 G · 0 A · 3 SOG · 22:38 on ice · -1
C. Coyle
#3 · C · CBJ
1 G · 0 A · 6 SOG · 22:11 on ice · +2
D. Severson
#78 · D · CBJ
0 G · 1 A · 1 SOG · 20:28 on ice · +1
Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Tue, Mar 3
Open the pre-game read
Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelJul 12, 5:18 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

This is as close to a pick'em as the numbers allow. The model projects a 2.5–2.7 goal range with the Blue Jackets favored at 55% win probability—effectively a coin flip determined by which team executes when it matters most.

The Blue Jackets are the hotter team, going 7–2–1 in their last 10 games while Nashville has cratered, posting a minus-7 goal differential over the same stretch. That momentum matters, but underlying play complicates the narrative.

Columbus owns the 5v5 advantage in expected goals (52.0% xG% versus 49.0%) and puck possession (51.0% Corsi% to 50.0%). These aren't dominant edges. Nashville's PDO of 0.992 trails Columbus's 1.003, meaning the Predators have been slightly unlucky on shot quality while the Blue Jackets have benefited from variance in the opposite direction. Eliminate luck and this game tightens considerably.

The Blue Jackets carry a rest edge, arriving on three days off to Nashville's one—a measurable advantage in third-period precision. Nashville also faces goaltending uncertainty. J. Saros is on the back end of a back-to-back; expect either a backup or a starter running on empty.

Boone Jenner anchors the Blue Jackets' offense, generating 0.98 expected goals per 60 minutes with 11 goals and 21 assists. His 9.6% shooting percentage leaves room for regression, but the volume is legitimate. Mathieu Olivier (0.89 xG/60, 12 goals, 9 assists) provides secondary punch.

Nashville's counterpoint is Filip Forsberg's volume: 23 goals and 17 assists, though his 13.6% shooting percentage suggests some unsustainability. Zachary L'Heureux carries 0.85 xG/60 with 4 goals and 1 high-danger opportunity—a steadier foundation if not Forsberg's upside. Both represent Nashville's shot-making talent, but depth scoring favors Columbus.

Defensively, Jonathan Marchessault is Nashville's vulnerability, while Conor Garland represents Columbus's potential weak link. The model has this right: marginally everything points to Columbus, but marginally is the operative word here.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

CBJ 55%
55%
CBJ
Model favorite
45%
55%
NSH50CBJ

CBJ by 10 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score NSH 2.5–2.7 CBJ; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG
NSH← edge
edge →CBJ
49.0%52.0%
50.0%51.0%
2.482.63
2.582.43
1.842.12
2.211.98
0.9921.003

CBJ holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.992 vs 1.003) says CBJ has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
NSH
3-3-4
-7 GD · 1d rest
CBJ
7-2-1
+11 GD · 3d rest
0.992
NSH PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.003
CBJ PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it

Keys to the game

Where the edges live
  • The Blue Jackets own the underlying play — 52.0% 5v5 xG vs 49.0%.
Things to watch
  • The Blue Jackets own the underlying play — 52.0% 5v5 xG vs 49.0%.
  • J. Saros is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
  • The Blue Jackets are the hotter team by points pace (7-2-1 in their last 10).
  • The Predators are underwater at -7 goal differential over their last 10.
  • The Blue Jackets have 2 more days of rest.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score
NSH
Expected in goal
J. Saros
back-to-back.900 last start
Backup Juuse Saros · -9.3 GSAx this season
Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

CBJ
Expected in goal
J. Greaves
3 days rest.852 last start
Backup Jet Greaves · +16.5 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG
NSH
Zachary L'Heureux4G 0A
0.85 xG/60 · 1 HD · 16.0% sh
Filip Forsberg23G 17A
0.80 xG/60 · 4 HD · 13.6% sh
CBJ
Boone Jenner11G 21A
0.98 xG/60 · 2 HD · 9.6% sh
Mathieu Olivier12G 9A
0.89 xG/60 · 1 HD · 13.3% sh
Keep going

Where to next

Back to the front page