The Avalanche stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 2.82–3.82 and won anyway.
The Avalanche stole this one: Colorado won 5-1 despite Anaheim controlling 58% of expected goals, winning high-danger chances 7-2, and controlling 52% of shot attempts.
S. Wedgewood was the architect of the theft. He stopped 27 of 28 shots (0.964 SV%), outperforming his xG allowance by 2.82 goals—more than the Ducks' margin of defeat. L. Dostal, meanwhile, gave up 2.18 goals above expected on a 26-shot workload, which on that volume is damning.
The turning point was Parker Kelly's wrist shot from the high slot at 10:06 of the third period. From there, Colorado was lethal in transition—four goals on 26 rush chances—while Anaheim went scoreless on high-danger chances despite creating seven of them.
Colorado's finish was ruthless: four goals on 26 rush chances and two low-danger goals that the opposing goalie should have stopped. Anaheim crashed the net effectively, generating five rebound opportunities, but went 0-for-7 on the chances that mattered most.
Variance entirely explained the scoreboard. The Ducks underperformed their xG by 2.82 goals; the Avalanche overperformed by 2.18, converting chances at a rate they shouldn't have. Wedgewood's 2.82-goal outperformance was the decisive swing.
