The Flyers stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 2.79–3.56 and won anyway.
Pittsburgh dominated expected goals at 3.56–2.79, controlling 56% of the metric at 5v5—and lost anyway. The Flyers stole this one in a shootout.
The Penguins outshot Philadelphia on chances that mattered. They held 59% of shot attempts (23–16 on goal) and generated four high-danger scoring opportunities to the Flyers' three. The edge was substantial. Yet Philadelphia won 4–3 because the Flyers converted at better rates, and because their goaltender simply played better when it counted.
D. Vladar posted a 0.870 save percentage for Philadelphia, nearly three-tenths of a point better than expected. S. Skinner kept Pittsburgh in it at 0.812, but that gap—in a one-goal game—proved decisive.
The Penguins scored three goals from low-danger areas, the kind a goalie should track. The Flyers answered by being lethal on the rush: three goals from 22 rush chances, compared to Pittsburgh's two from 32 attempts. Philadelphia's efficiency from transition play was the margin.
In the shootout, Trevor Zegras's wrist shot from the slot won it for Philadelphia.
The three stars tell the story of a Penguins team that controlled the game and lost. R. Rakell notched 1G and 1A in 22:06. E. Chinakhov added 2A in 21:02. For Philadelphia, C. York contributed 1A in 30:48—offensive depth from the blue line.
Philadelphia's overperformance on expected goals was 1.21 goals. They earned it.
