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Motion-blurred skater in a New York Islanders sweater
← Sat, Mar 7 · the slate
Breakdown · NYI at SJS

I. Sorokin stands tall as the Islanders edge the Sharks

Final / OTSat, Mar 7
NYINew York Islanders2SJSSan Jose Sharks1
The verdict · coin flip

The Islanders won a genuine coin flip — neither side controlled the run of play.

NYI 2 · SJS 1
◆ By the ModelJul 12, 6:11 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Islanders won a game that favored the other team on paper. Expected goals split 3.56–3.49 in San Jose's favor, yet New York skated out 2–1 winners in overtime, with I. Sorokin's brilliance bridging the gap between underlying metrics and the final score.

Both teams dramatically underperformed their expected output. The Sharks came up 2.56 goals short of their xG; the Islanders underperformed theirs by 1.49. I. Sorokin stopped 30 of 31 shots with a 0.968 save percentage, outperforming his expected performance by 2.56 goals. Y. Askarov's 0.941 save percentage was respectable but insufficient.

High-danger chances went 3–5. Both teams created 5 rebound opportunities without converting any. On the rush—where instinct and skill matter most—New York was ruthless, scoring both its goals on 29 chances. San Jose couldn't find that same efficiency.

Bo Horvat's backhander from the slot at 4:20 of overtime settled it. M. Schaefer contributed an assist in 29:01, while M. Barzal added an assist in 24:23, Horvat recording 1 goal in 23:17.

I. Sorokin was the difference. His 2.56-save overperformance explains why the Islanders, despite generating fewer quality chances, walked away with the win.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · OT · Mar 7
NYI
2
SJS
1

I. Sorokin stands tall as the Islanders edge the Sharks

Chances 3.5 – 3.6Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

Dead even on chances. The Islanders took it anyway.

Expected goals · chance value
NYI
3.49
SJS
3.56
50% of the chances51%

The board read NYI 2, SJS 1. The chances read NYI 3.5, SJS 3.6.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
NYI
−1.5
goals above expected
NYI3.49 expected · 2 scored
Expected
Scored
SJS3.56 expected · 1 scored
Expected
Scored

The Sharks left 2.6 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 11:37NYIT. DeAngelo1–0
  2. P2 00:33SJSM. Celebrini1–1
  3. OT 04:20NYIB. Horvat2–1
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
NYI
47 shots
2
Final
92 shots
SJS
45 shots
1
NYI attackSJS attack
NYI SJS Goal
47
shots · 2 in
45
shots · 1 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
NYISJS
1 / 5
1.12 xG
High danger
0 / 3
0.61 xG
0 / 14
1.54 xG
Medium
1 / 19
2.32 xG
1 / 49
0.83 xG
Low
0 / 35
0.64 xG

The Sharks went 0 for 3 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
A+
I. Sorokin
+2.6
NYI · 30/31
B+
Y. Askarov
+1.5
SJS · 32/34
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

I. Sorokin stands tall as the Islanders edge the Sharks

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 8–8
  1. 11:37NYIT. DeAngelo(C. Ritchie)1–0
2ndshots 10–10
  1. 00:33SJSM. Celebrini(W. Smith, J. Klingberg)1–1
3rdshots 14–9no goals
    OTshots 2–4
    1. 04:20NYIB. Horvat(M. Schaefer, M. Barzal)2–1

    score reads NYI–SJS

    Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
    Process vs result

    The numbers

    XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
    3.49
    NYI chances
    Goals their shots were worth
    −1.5
    Finishing
    Goals below what those chances were worth
    1.012
    NYI puck luck
    About 1.000 — a normal night for bounces
    54.4%
    Shot attempts
    Over half — they had the puck more
    Split by club

    Who controlled the game

    3.49Expected goals3.56
    SJS 51% of the chance quality
    34Shots on goal31
    5High-danger chances3
    68All attempts (Corsi)57
    Adjusted for score: NYI 54% · SJS 46%
    Faceoffs · SJS won36%off43%neu55%def
    Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
    How the game was won

    The danger ladder

    shotsgoalsexpected
    High dangerslot & crease
    NYI1 / 5 · 1.12 xG
    SJS0 / 3 · 0.61 xG
    Medium dangermid-range
    NYI0 / 14 · 1.54 xG
    SJS1 / 19 · 2.32 xG
    Low dangerperimeter & point
    NYI1 / 49 · 0.83 xG
    SJS0 / 35 · 0.64 xG

    NYI went 0-for-14 from medium danger on 1.54 expected goals — 1.5 left on the table.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
    The luck layer

    Finishing vs expected

    expectedactual
    NYI
    2 G · 3.49 xG · -1.5
    SJS
    1 G · 3.56 xG · -2.6
    01234

    NYI finished -1.5 against expected, SJS -2.6.

    Source · Backcheck xG model
    Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
    What they shot — and what went in

    Shot diet

    goalsshots
    NYI
    WRIST1/29
    TIP IN0/7
    SLAP0/5
    BACKHAND1/4
    SNAP0/1
    WRAP AROUND0/1
    OTHER0/21
    SJS
    WRIST1/18
    TIP IN0/11
    SLAP0/9
    BACKHAND0/4
    SNAP0/2
    WRAP AROUND0/1
    OTHER0/12
    NYI
    SJS
    Off the rush
    2 G on 29
    2.29 xG
    1 G on 29
    2.65 xG
    Off rebounds
    0 G on 5
    0.85 xG
    0 G on 5
    0.66 xG

    Wrist shots carried the volume: NYI went 1-for-29, SJS 1-for-18. NYI scored 2 of theirs off the rush.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
    New to these numbers?

    Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

    The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

    xG
    Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
    HD
    High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
    Corsi
    Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
    Adj.
    Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
    GSAx
    Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
    PDO
    Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
    Shot by shot

    In the net

    Graded on goals saved above expected
    I. Sorokin
    NYI · 30/31 · .968
    +2.6
    saved above expected
    A+
    the night
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger0/30.6+0.6
    Medium1/192.3+1.3
    Low0/350.6+0.6

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    Y. Askarov
    SJS · 32/34 · .941
    +1.5
    saved above expected
    B+
    the night
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger1/51.1+0.1
    Medium0/141.5+1.5
    Low1/490.8-0.2

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    92 shots · press play to watch the game back

    Where the shots came from

    NHL play-by-play coordinates
    NYI
    47 shots
    2
    Final
    92 shots
    SJS
    45 shots
    1
    NYI attackSJS attack
    NYI SJS Goal

    Each club shoots toward its own end — NYI left, SJS right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

    Ranked from the box score

    Three stars

    Points first
    Three stars · computed, not voted
    M. Schaefer
    #48 · D · NYI
    0 G · 1 A · 3 SOG · 29:01 on ice · +1
    M. Barzal
    #13 · C · NYI
    0 G · 1 A · 3 SOG · 24:23 on ice
    B. Horvat
    #14 · C · NYI
    1 G · 0 A · 6 SOG · 23:17 on ice · +1
    Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
    What the model said beforehand

    Before the game

    Written Sat, Mar 7
    Open the pre-game read
    Written from the numbers

    The read

    Edited for clarity
    ◆ By the ModelJul 12, 6:07 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

    The model projects this as a coin flip: 2.5-2.6 goals with the Sharks at 52% win probability. This is about as pick'em as hockey analytics gets.

    The underlying talent sits nearly indistinguishable. Both teams register 48.0% xG%, meaning their chance creation is identical. The Islanders edge slightly in possession at 49.0% Corsi compared to San Jose's 47.0%, but the Sharks' PDO of 0.998 exceeds the Islanders' 0.993—a signal that San Jose converts at a marginally better rate and surrenders fewer fluky goals.

    The clearest advantage belongs to San Jose: three days of rest against the Islanders' one. Late in the season, that rest gap compounds into meaningful edge.

    Sorokin lands on the back end of a back-to-back for New York. The Islanders either deploy a fatigued starter or turn to the backup. Either way, the Sharks inherit a goaltending advantage.

    Players to Watch

    Islanders

    • Anders Lee (1.20 xG/60, 9G, 20A, 2 HD goals, 6.4% shooting)
    • Bo Horvat (0.87 xG/60, 18G, 10A, 3 HD goals, 12.8% shooting)

    Sharks

    • Pavol Regenda (1.10 xG/60, 5G, 1A, 2 HD goals, 16.1% shooting) [Likely out—marked inactive]
    • Igor Chernyshov (0.91 xG/60, 6G, 8A, 1 HD goal, 15.0% shooting)

    Lee leads this matchup in shot volume at 1.20 xG/60 and owns the highest raw shot count across both rosters. Horvat sits as the outlier—his 12.8% shooting rate is well above baseline—which means San Jose's defense, particularly Chernyshov, must deny him the opportunities his accuracy exploits. Pavol Regenda's likely absence strips the Sharks of their second-most dangerous volume threat at 1.10 xG/60.

    Both teams occupy an unusual space: zero high-danger goals and zero rebound goals apiece. For the Islanders, this reflects either elite goaltending or peculiar profligacy in tight areas. Alexander Romanov carries the defensive liability for New York. The Sharks mirror that pattern—zero high-danger, zero rebound—with Chernyshov as their defensive weakness. That symmetry matters: if neither team generates through the paint, scoring dries up.

    Rest and goaltending tilt toward San Jose. Regenda's likely absence and Horvat's extreme shooting luck tilt back toward the island. This is a legitimate flip.

    What the model said beforehand

    The model's lean

    SJS 52%
    52%
    SJS
    Model favorite
    48%
    52%
    NYI50SJS

    SJS by 4 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score NYI 2.5–2.6 SJS; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

    Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
    Season rates · 5v5

    Tale of the tape

    NHL stats API · our xG
    NYI← edge
    edge →SJS
    48.0%48.0%
    49.0%47.0%
    2.482.33
    2.692.56
    1.781.99
    1.942.32
    0.9930.998

    The season numbers split 3–3 — no clear process edge — and the luck row (0.993 vs 0.998) says SJS has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

    Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
    Form · Last 10
    NYI
    6-4-0
    -3 GD · 1d rest
    SJS
    5-4-1
    -1 GD · 3d rest
    0.993
    NYI PDO
    Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
    0.998
    SJS PDO
    Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
    What decides it

    Keys to the game

    Things to watch
    • I. Sorokin is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
    • The Sharks have 2 more days of rest.
    Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

    Lineups

    NHL box score
    NYI
    Expected in goal
    I. Sorokin
    back-to-back.857 last start
    Backup Ilya Sorokin · +25.3 GSAx this season
    Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

    No completed game on file for this club yet.

    SJS
    Expected in goal
    Y. Askarov
    3 days rest.861 last start
    Backup Yaroslav Askarov · -18.9 GSAx this season

    No completed game on file for this club yet.

    Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

    Computed danger · scouting

    Players to watch

    NHL stats API · our xG
    NYI
    Anders Lee9G 20A
    1.20 xG/60 · 2 HD · 6.4% sh
    Bo Horvat18G 10A
    0.87 xG/60 · 3 HD · 12.8% sh
    SJS
    Pavol Regenda5G 1A
    1.10 xG/60 · 2 HD · 16.1% sh
    Igor Chernyshov6G 8A
    0.91 xG/60 · 1 HD · 15.0% sh
    Keep going

    Where to next

    Back to the front page