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Motion-blurred skater in a Colorado Avalanche sweater
← Sun, Mar 8 · the slate
Breakdown · MIN at COL

Avalanche edge the Wild in a shootout

Final / OTSun, Mar 8
MINMinnesota Wild2COLColorado Avalanche3
The verdict · earned

The Avalanche earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

MIN 2 · COL 3
◆ By the ModelJul 12, 6:10 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Colorado controlled this game by the metrics—59% of 5v5 expected goals (5.36–3.78)—yet the Wild nearly flipped the scoreboard anyway. That gap between dominance and a shootout-thin margin reveals an Avalanche team that squandered its advantage.

The Avalanche were lethal at the rush, converting 2 goals on 40 chances against Minnesota's 2 on 30. But Colorado underperformed its expected goals by 2.36, suggesting execution faltered despite opportunity. J. Wallstedt's 0.944 save percentage (+3.36 vs expected) was the game's edge—he bailed out a team that had no business staying close. S. Wedgewood (0.941 SV%, +1.78) was excellent, but Wallstedt's outperformance proved decisive.

High-danger chances were tight: Colorado 7, Minnesota 6. Neither team found the net on second chances—both created five rebound opportunities, both converted zero.

The difference arrived in the shootout: Nathan MacKinnon's wrist shot from the doorstep.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · SO · Mar 8
MIN
2
COL
3

Avalanche edge the Wild in a shootout

Chances 3.8 – 5.4Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Avalanche earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value
MIN
3.78
COL
5.36
41% of the chances59%

The board read MIN 2, COL 3. The chances read MIN 3.8, COL 5.4.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
COL
−2.4
goals above expected
COL5.36 expected · 3 scored
Expected
Scored
MIN3.78 expected · 2 scored
Expected
Scored

The Wild left 1.8 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P2 12:19COLN. MacKinnon0–1
  2. P3 04:17MINK. KaprizovPP1–1
  3. P3 07:01MINN. SturmSH2–1
  4. P3 12:39COLN. Roy2–2
  5. SO 00:00COLV. NichushkinPP2–2
  6. SO 00:00MINM. BoldyPP2–2
  7. SO 00:00COLN. MacKinnonPP2–2
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
MIN
54 shots
3
Final
115 shots
COL
61 shots
4
MIN attackCOL attack
MIN COL Goal

Shootout goals are not shots and are not drawn; the scoreboard above counts goals from the shot log.

54
shots · 3 in
61
shots · 4 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
MINCOL
1 / 6
1.52 xG
High danger
1 / 7
1.47 xG
0 / 15
1.64 xG
Medium
1 / 29
3.29 xG
1 / 44
0.62 xG
Low
0 / 44
0.60 xG

High-danger looks: MIN 1 of 6, COL 1 of 7.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
A+
J. Wallstedt
+3.4
MIN · 34/36
A
S. Wedgewood
+1.8
COL · 32/34
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Avalanche edge the Wild in a shootout

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 9–14no goals
    2ndshots 15–12
    1. 12:19COLN. MacKinnon(N. Kadri)0–1
    3rdshots 9–8
    1. 04:17MINK. Kaprizovpower play(Q. Hughes, J. Eriksson Ek)1–1
    2. 07:01MINN. Sturmshorthanded(B. Faber)2–1
    3. 12:39COLN. Roy(B. Kulak, J. Kiviranta)2–2
    OTshots 1–2no goals
      SO
      1. 00:00COLV. Nichushkinpower play2–2
      2. 00:00MINM. Boldypower play2–2
      3. 00:00COLN. MacKinnonpower play2–2

      score reads MIN–COL

      Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
      Process vs result

      The numbers

      XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
      5.36
      COL chances
      Goals their shots were worth
      −2.4
      Finishing
      Goals below what those chances were worth
      0.994
      COL puck luck
      About 1.000 — a normal night for bounces
      55.2%
      Shot attempts
      Over half — they had the puck more
      Split by club

      Who controlled the game

      3.78Expected goals5.36
      COL 59% of the chance quality
      34Shots on goal36
      6High-danger chances7
      65All attempts (Corsi)80
      Adjusted for score: MIN 45% · COL 55%
      Faceoffs · COL won39%off20%neu71%def
      Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
      How the game was won

      The danger ladder

      shotsgoalsexpected
      High dangerslot & crease
      MIN1 / 6 · 1.52 xG
      COL1 / 7 · 1.47 xG
      Medium dangermid-range
      MIN0 / 15 · 1.64 xG
      COL1 / 29 · 3.29 xG
      Low dangerperimeter & point
      MIN1 / 44 · 0.62 xG
      COL0 / 44 · 0.60 xG

      COL went 1-for-29 from medium danger on 3.29 expected goals — 2.3 left on the table.

      Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
      The luck layer

      Finishing vs expected

      expectedactual
      MIN
      2 G · 3.78 xG · -1.8
      COL
      3 G · 5.36 xG · -2.4
      0123456

      MIN finished -1.8 against expected, COL -2.4.

      Source · Backcheck xG model
      Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
      What they shot — and what went in

      Shot diet

      goalsshots
      MIN
      WRIST2/30
      SNAP0/5
      SLAP0/4
      BACKHAND0/8
      TIP IN0/3
      WRAP AROUND0/0
      BETWEEN LEGS0/0
      OTHER0/15
      COL
      WRIST0/20
      SNAP1/13
      SLAP0/11
      BACKHAND0/5
      TIP IN1/6
      WRAP AROUND0/1
      BETWEEN LEGS0/1
      OTHER0/23
      MIN
      COL
      Off the rush
      2 G on 30
      2.74 xG
      2 G on 40
      3.68 xG
      Off rebounds
      0 G on 5
      0.81 xG
      0 G on 5
      0.75 xG

      Wrist shots carried the volume: MIN went 2-for-30, COL 0-for-20. MIN scored 2 of theirs off the rush.

      Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
      New to these numbers?

      Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

      The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

      xG
      Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
      HD
      High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
      Corsi
      Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
      Adj.
      Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
      GSAx
      Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
      PDO
      Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
      Shot by shot

      In the net

      Graded on goals saved above expected
      J. Wallstedt
      MIN · 34/36 · .944
      +3.4
      saved above expected
      A+
      the night
      By dangerG/attxGsaved
      High danger1/71.5+0.5
      Medium1/293.3+2.3
      Low0/440.6+0.6

      A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

      S. Wedgewood
      COL · 32/34 · .941
      +1.8
      saved above expected
      A
      the night
      By dangerG/attxGsaved
      High danger1/61.5+0.5
      Medium0/151.6+1.6
      Low1/440.6-0.4

      A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

      115 shots · press play to watch the game back

      Where the shots came from

      NHL play-by-play coordinates
      MIN
      54 shots
      3
      Final
      115 shots
      COL
      61 shots
      4
      MIN attackCOL attack
      MIN COL Goal

      Shootout goals are not shots and are not drawn; the scoreboard above counts goals from the shot log.

      Each club shoots toward its own end — MIN left, COL right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

      Ranked from the box score

      Three stars

      Points first
      Three stars · computed, not voted
      B. Faber
      #7 · D · MIN
      0 G · 1 A · 1 SOG · 28:14 on ice · -1
      Q. Hughes
      #43 · D · MIN
      0 G · 1 A · 0 SOG · 26:48 on ice · -2
      K. Kaprizov
      #97 · L · MIN
      1 G · 0 A · 4 SOG · 22:41 on ice · -2
      Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
      What the model said beforehand

      Before the game

      Written Sun, Mar 8
      Open the pre-game read
      Written from the numbers

      The read

      Edited for clarity
      ◆ By the ModelJul 12, 6:09 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

      Colorado's expected-goals edge predicts a narrow win. The model projects the Avalanche at 57% probability in a 2.4-to-2.9 goal range, built on territorial control: 57.0% 5v5 xG and 57.0% Corsis to Minnesota's 52.0% and 48.0%. That's the shallowest edge imaginable for a model pick—barely daylight separates the teams.

      The catch is regressive pressure. Colorado's PDO sits at 1.021, running hot compared to Minnesota's 1.007. When your shooting percentage and save percentage both run ahead of league average, regression typically arrives. The Avalanche have earned their underlying play, but unsustainable puck luck alone is padding several wins.

      Goaltending adds uncertainty. Both S. Wedgewood (Colorado) and F. Gustavsson (Minnesota) are on back-to-back starts, raising the risk of tired play or a backup skip-start. Either scenario tilts unpredictably.

      The matchup asymmetry lives with star production. Artturi Lehkonen (1.11 xG/60, 18G 22A, 6 HD goals) and Ross Colton (1.10 xG/60, 7G 15A) anchor Colorado's finish rate—both efficient at creating high-danger looks. Minnesota counters with Matt Boldy (0.89 xG/60, 22G 18A, 5 HD goals), whose power-play-heavy mark (13.7% shooting) inflates goal totals beyond 5v5 performance. Robby Fabbri, marked likely out, would have paired Boldy's production. His absence reshuffles Minnesota's secondary threat level.

      Defensive weak points tell the deeper story. Nazem Kadri on Colorado and Matt Kiersted on Minnesota both anchor vulnerability assignments. If Minnesota's penalty kill tightens around Kadri, it erodes Colorado's power advantage. If Colorado's top pair exploits Kiersted, the gap widens.

      The verdict hinges on whether Colorado sustains its hot hand or regresses into the fundamentals—the xG margin itself. 57% is not a lock. It's a coin flip with a slight lean, shaped by puck luck that probably won't hold.

      What the model said beforehand

      The model's lean

      COL 57%
      57%
      COL
      Model favorite
      43%
      57%
      MIN50COL

      COL by 14 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score MIN 2.4–2.9 COL; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

      Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
      Season rates · 5v5

      Tale of the tape

      NHL stats API · our xG
      MIN← edge
      edge →COL
      52.0%57.0%
      48.0%57.0%
      2.553.03
      2.402.30
      2.042.63
      1.931.56
      1.0071.021

      COL holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.007 vs 1.021) says COL has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

      Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
      Form · Last 10
      MIN
      8-2-0
      +14 GD · 1d rest
      COL
      7-3-0
      +9 GD · 1d rest
      1.007
      MIN PDO
      Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
      1.021
      COL PDO
      Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
      What decides it

      Keys to the game

      Where the edges live
      • The Avalanche own the underlying play — 57.0% 5v5 xG vs 52.0%.
      • The Avalanche drive Corsi at 57.0% — expect territorial tilt.
      Regression watch
      • The Avalanche's PDO is 1.021 — running hot, expect some regression.
      Things to watch
      • The Avalanche own the underlying play — 57.0% 5v5 xG vs 52.0%.
      • The Avalanche drive Corsi at 57.0% — expect territorial tilt.
      • S. Wedgewood is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
      • F. Gustavsson is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
      • The Avalanche's PDO is 1.021 — running hot, expect some regression.
      Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

      Lineups

      NHL box score
      MIN
      Expected in goal
      F. Gustavsson
      back-to-back.935 last start
      Backup Filip Gustavsson · +1.4 GSAx this season
      Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

      No completed game on file for this club yet.

      COL
      Expected in goal
      S. Wedgewood
      back-to-back1.000 last start
      Backup Scott Wedgewood · +23.1 GSAx this season
      Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

      No completed game on file for this club yet.

      Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

      Computed danger · scouting

      Players to watch

      NHL stats API · our xG
      MIN
      Matt Boldy22G 18A
      0.89 xG/60 · 5 HD · 13.7% sh
      Robby Fabbri2G 3A
      0.88 xG/60 · 1 HD · 6.9% sh
      COL
      Artturi Lehkonen18G 22A
      1.11 xG/60 · 6 HD · 14.9% sh
      Ross Colton7G 15A
      1.10 xG/60 · 1 HD · 4.9% sh
      Keep going

      Where to next

      Back to the front page