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← Sun, Mar 8 · the slate
Breakdown · DET at NJD

Red Wings shut out the Devils, 3-0

FinalSun, Mar 8
DETDetroit Red Wings3NJDNew Jersey Devils0
The verdict · coin flip

The Red Wings won a genuine coin flip — neither side controlled the run of play.

DET 3 · NJD 0
◆ By the ModelJul 12, 6:16 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Devils dominated possession—at least by possession metrics—and generated expected goals nearly even with Detroit (2.89 to 2.79). They still lost 3-0. The scoreboard betrayed what happened on the ice: this was about goaltending, not domination.

J. Gibson stopped 21 shots and earned +1.89 goals saved above expected. C. Talbot added +0.90 on 10 saves. New Jersey held 51% of shot attempts and generated 2.89 xG, but Detroit's goaltending suffocated every chance.

Detroit's execution proved sharp. Dominik Shine's snap shot from a sharp angle (period 3, 10:24) set the tone. The Red Wings capitalized on the rush—two goals on 28 chances—suggesting a clinical edge New Jersey couldn't match.

M. Seider drove the attack with 1 goal and 2 assists over 25:02. P. Kane contributed 2 assists in 19:12, and J. van Riemsdyk added 1 goal and 1 assist in 10:22. The Devils generated five high-danger chances to Detroit's three but couldn't finish; efficiency evaporated when it mattered.

This was pure variance: a possession-level even game decided by exceptional save percentage and clinical execution in tight windows.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · Mar 8
DET
3
NJD
0

Red Wings shut out the Devils, 3-0

Chances 2.9 – 2.8Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

Dead even on chances. The Red Wings took it anyway.

Expected goals · chance value
DET
2.89
NJD
2.79
51% of the chances49%

The board read DET 3, NJD 0. The chances read DET 2.9, NJD 2.8.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
DET
+0.1
goals above expected
DET2.89 expected · 3 scored
Expected
Scored
NJD2.79 expected · 0 scored
Expected
Scored

The Devils left 2.8 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 03:20DETM. Seider1–0
  2. P2 06:37DETJ. van RiemsdykPP2–0
  3. P3 10:24DETD. Shine3–0
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
DET
44 shots
3
Final
89 shots
NJD
45 shots
0
DET attackNJD attack
DET NJD Goal
44
shots · 3 in
45
shots · 0 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
DETNJD
1 / 5
1.12 xG
High danger
0 / 3
0.60 xG
1 / 12
1.19 xG
Medium
0 / 15
1.53 xG
1 / 35
0.58 xG
Low
0 / 45
0.65 xG

The Devils went 0 for 3 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
A+
J. Gibson
+2.8
DET · 21/21
A+
C. Talbot
+2.8
DET · 10/10
+1 more on the full breakdown
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Red Wings shut out the Devils, 3-0

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 9–12
  1. 03:20DETM. Seider(P. Kane, A. Copp)1–0
2ndshots 9–9
  1. 06:37DETJ. van Riemsdykpower play(M. Seider, P. Kane)2–0
3rdshots 12–10
  1. 10:24DETD. Shine(J. van Riemsdyk, M. Seider)3–0

score reads DET–NJD

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
2.89
DET chances
Goals their shots were worth
+0.1
Finishing
Goals above what those chances were worth
1.058
DET puck luck
Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way
45.2%
Shot attempts
Under half — they were outshot
Split by club

Who controlled the game

2.89Expected goals2.79
DET 51% of the chance quality
30Shots on goal31
5High-danger chances3
52All attempts (Corsi)63
Adjusted for score: DET 40% · NJD 60%
Faceoffs · NJD won55%off40%neu58%def
Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected
High dangerslot & crease
DET1 / 5 · 1.12 xG
NJD0 / 3 · 0.60 xG
Medium dangermid-range
DET1 / 12 · 1.19 xG
NJD0 / 15 · 1.53 xG
Low dangerperimeter & point
DET1 / 35 · 0.58 xG
NJD0 / 45 · 0.65 xG

NJD went 0-for-15 from medium danger on 1.53 expected goals — 1.5 left on the table.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual
DET
3 G · 2.89 xG · +0.1
NJD
0 G · 2.79 xG · -2.8
01234

DET finished +0.1 against expected, NJD -2.8.

Source · Backcheck xG model
Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots
DET
WRIST1/20
SNAP1/10
SLAP0/5
TIP IN1/4
BACKHAND0/5
DEFLECTED0/0
OTHER0/8
NJD
WRIST0/25
SNAP0/8
SLAP0/7
TIP IN0/3
BACKHAND0/1
DEFLECTED0/1
OTHER0/18
DET
NJD
Off the rush
2 G on 28
2.10 xG
0 G on 25
2.03 xG
Off rebounds
0 G on 2
0.39 xG
0 G on 0
0.00 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: DET went 1-for-20, NJD 0-for-25. DET scored 2 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG
Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD
High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi
Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.
Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx
Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO
Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected
J. Gibson
DET · 21/21 · 1.000
+2.8
saved above expected
A+
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger0/30.6+0.6
Medium0/151.5+1.5
Low0/450.7+0.7

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

C. Talbot
DET · 10/10 · 1.000
+2.8
saved above expected
A+
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger0/30.6+0.6
Medium0/151.5+1.5
Low0/450.7+0.7

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

J. Markstrom
NJD · 27/30 · .900
-0.1
saved above expected
C
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger1/51.1+0.1
Medium1/121.2+0.2
Low1/350.6-0.4

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

89 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates
DET
44 shots
3
Final
89 shots
NJD
45 shots
0
DET attackNJD attack
DET NJD Goal

Each club shoots toward its own end — DET left, NJD right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first
Three stars · computed, not voted
M. Seider
#53 · D · DET
1 G · 2 A · 5 SOG · 25:02 on ice · +2
P. Kane
#88 · R · DET
0 G · 2 A · 3 SOG · 19:12 on ice · +1
J. van Riemsdyk
#21 · L · DET
1 G · 1 A · 1 SOG · 10:22 on ice · +1
Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Sun, Mar 8
Open the pre-game read
Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelJul 12, 6:12 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects a 2.4–2.6 goal game with New Jersey at 53% win probability. Call it a pick'em. Detroit's been dragging: -12 goal differential over the last 10 games says the Red Wings are underperforming. New Jersey sits at 51.0% Corsi% but runs cold at 0.971 PDO—the kind of luck that reverses. Detroit's at 0.985, though recent results suggest their own puck fortune is wavering.

Five-on-five play is deadlocked. Detroit: 49.0% xG%, 49.0% Corsi%. New Jersey: 50.0% xG%, 51.0% Corsi%. Marginal edges everywhere.

Both J. Markstrom and J. Gibson face back-to-backs. Watch for tired starters or a backup appearance.

New Jersey's offense runs through Timo Meier (1.08 xG/60, 13 goals, 6.7% shooting, 3 hard-danger goals) and Jack Hughes (0.88 xG/60, 18 goals, 11.5% shooting). Hughes operates at an elevated clip; regression is inevitable. Detroit counters with Alex DeBrincat at 0.88 xG/60—17 goals, 28 assists, 9.0% shooting, 2 hard-danger goals—and Marco Kasper at 0.81 xG/60 with 7 goals on thin 6.1% shooting. Kasper's an upside candidate if his finishing normalizes.

Defensively, neither team has scored from hard-danger chances or on rebounds. Both droughts will end. Axel Sandin-Pellikka is Detroit's weak link; Johnathan Kovacevic carries the burden for New Jersey.

The Devils' PDO is due for positive regression. Detroit's goal differential wants to flip. Marginal play. Marginal stakes. Churn all the way down.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

NJD 53%
53%
NJD
Model favorite
47%
53%
DET50NJD

NJD by 6 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score DET 2.4–2.6 NJD; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG
DET← edge
edge →NJD
49.0%50.0%
49.0%51.0%
2.382.45
2.502.50
1.731.66
2.072.23
0.9850.971

The season numbers split 3–3 — no clear process edge — and the luck row (0.985 vs 0.971) says DET has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
DET
3-5-2
-12 GD · 1d rest
NJD
5-5-0
-1 GD · 1d rest
0.985
DET PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.971
NJD PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it

Keys to the game

Regression watch
  • The Devils' PDO is 0.971 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Things to watch
  • J. Markstrom is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
  • J. Gibson is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
  • The Red Wings are underwater at -12 goal differential over their last 10.
  • The Devils' PDO is 0.971 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score
DET
Expected in goal
J. Gibson
back-to-back.909 last start
Backup John Gibson · +11.7 GSAx this season
Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

NJD
Expected in goal
J. Markstrom
back-to-back.850 last start
Backup Jacob Markstrom · -11.9 GSAx this season
Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG
DET
Alex DeBrincat17G 28A
0.88 xG/60 · 2 HD · 9.0% sh
Marco Kasper7G 8A
0.81 xG/60 · 1 HD · 6.1% sh
NJD
Timo Meier13G 15A
1.08 xG/60 · 3 HD · 6.7% sh
Jack Hughes18G 17A
0.88 xG/60 · 1 HD · 11.5% sh
Keep going

Where to next

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