The Senators earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
The Senators controlled play so thoroughly that even underperforming their 4.07 expected goals by 2.07 felt like a dominant performance. Ottawa held 67% of xG at 5v5, registered a 5–2 high-danger advantage, and shot with superior quality (0.083 xG per attempt versus 0.052). Scoring 2 on that volume left points on the table—though not points that mattered.
J. Reimer made the math academic: 16/16 saves, 1.000 SV%, +1.98 versus expected. On the other end, K. Lankinen kept the Canucks afloat longer than their metrics deserved. He stopped 22 of 23 shots (0.957 SV%, +3.07 versus expected), a performance that masked Vancouver's anemia. The Canucks' 1.98 xG yielded nothing, and even Lankinen's heroics couldn't manufacture a goal from nothing.
Brady Tkachuk's wrist shot from the point (P3, 18:40) represented Ottawa's efficiency in the high-danger zone: 2 of 5 chances (40%) found the back of the net. T. Chabot (24:29), A. Zub (21:07), and T. Stützle (19:46) distributed the assists, illustrating the Senators' depth.
Shots split 24–16. Expected goals finished 4.07–1.98. The actual result, 2–0, was never in doubt—a validation of Ottawa's control, even if the scoreline undersold their dominance relative to the underlying metrics.
