The Panthers stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 3.77–3.29 and won anyway.
The Panthers won 4-3 on a night when the underlying numbers favored Detroit. The Red Wings generated 3.77 expected goals to Florida's 3.29 and peppered D. Tarasov with eight high-danger chances to the Panthers' three. Yet the Panthers escaped with the win—a result that hinged on goaltending and the ruthlessness to capitalize on low-probability opportunities.
The Red Wings created the better looks. They generated 0.068 expected goals per shot compared to Florida's 0.050, evidence that Detroit sustained pressure in dangerous areas. But chance quality and conversion are different things. Detroit managed zero goals on eight high-danger chances, a variance gap the team will not close often.
D. Tarasov was impervious. He stopped all eight high-danger shots for a perfect 100 percent save percentage on those chances. His overall line was 25 saves on 28 shots—a 0.893 save percentage that beat his expected performance by 0.77 goals. Meanwhile, J. Gibson saved 24 of 28 (0.857 SV%) but underperformed by the same margin in the opposite direction.
The Panthers' victory came through low-danger conversion and goaltending. They scored twice from low-danger spots. Both teams thrived in transition—Florida three on 29 rush chances, Detroit three on 26—but Tarasov's wall at the high slot sealed it.
The inflection came when Carter Verhaeghe's wrist shot from the high slot beat J. Gibson at 19:45 of the third period, a shot that embodied the evening: Florida capitalizing when it mattered, Detroit unable to finish despite dominating the underlying play.
