The Islanders earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
New York's overtime victory masked an emphatic underlying advantage. The Islanders controlled 59% of expected goals (5.25–3.60) and dominated shot volume (50–23), yet J. Hofer's exceptional performance kept the game within reach. His 0.939 save percentage exceeded expectation by 2.25 goals — nearly enough to flip the result single-handedly.
The Islanders generated higher-quality looks than their volume suggests. They recorded 10 high-danger chances to St. Louis's 7, and their power play operated at elite efficiency: 2 goals on 16 shots (1.44 expected goals). Yet they underperformed their xG by 1.25, scoring just 4 on 5.25 — a rare moment where New York's offense lagged its opportunities.
St. Louis cashed in on the rush with uncommon sharpness: 3 goals on 27 attempts. New York managed only 2 on 37, squandering a volume advantage in transition. The Blues crashed the net effectively for rebounds, converting none of three opportunities. New York found the net once across 10 rebound chances — a ratio that, combined with Hofer's brilliance, nearly erased the quality gap.
M. Barzal's wrist shot from the high slot at 2:11 of overtime ended it. I. Sorokin's performance (20/23 saves, +0.60 vs expected) was solid but secondary. The Islanders' underlying control left little doubt about the outcome.