The Maple Leafs won a genuine coin flip — neither side controlled the run of play.
The shot distribution lied. Toronto dominated possession—28 chances to Anaheim's 40—yet expected goals split 5.03–4.98, a virtual dead heat. The Leafs won 6–4 on variance: they overperformed their xG by 0.97 goals while the Ducks underperformed theirs by 0.98.
J. Woll was the difference. His 0.900 save percentage against L. Dostal's 0.815 tells the story—two goalies facing identical shot quality but producing divergent results. The Leafs generated dangerous looks systematically (0.095 xG per shot vs. the Ducks' 0.066), then converted at a higher rate.
Alex Killorn's wrist shot from the high slot (19:34, third period) was the turning point, but the real execution gap showed on special teams. Toronto's power play was surgical: three goals on 20 shots, 2.35 expected goals. Anaheim couldn't generate that pressure.
Rush chances exposed the Leafs' efficiency most clearly. They scored four goals on 27 rush attempts; the Ducks scored two on 34. That's elite conversion from transition—the offense was lethal on a fast break.
High-danger chances (10–8 Toronto) and rebound opportunities (both teams converted one of their 3–4 chances) were relatively even, but Toronto's edge in shot quality compounded. M. Knies and M. Maccelli ran the show; the depth was efficient throughout.
Anaheim generated higher-quality chances than their 40 shots suggest and matched Toronto's intensity for stretches. The Ducks were lethal on the rush themselves and created real offensive danger. But the Leafs' special teams and goaltending efficiency—combined with their ruthlessness on transition—proved decisive.