Motion-blurred skater in a Colorado Avalanche sweater

Breakdown · COL at SEA

Avalanche pull away from the Kraken

FinalThu, Mar 12

COLColorado Avalanche5 SEASeattle Kraken1

The verdict · earned

The Avalanche earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

COL 5 · SEA 1

◆ By the ModelJul 12, 7:21 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Kraken had the better expected goals—3.43 to 2.97—yet lost 5–1, a disparity that explains almost everything about the game. Seattle underperformed their xG by 1.97 goals; Colorado overperformed theirs by 1.57. Finish, not process, decided this one.

The underlying play justified Seattle's share of the metrics. The Kraken held 53% of shot attempts (29–26) and 54% of expected goals. They led high-danger chances 4–2. By shot quality alone—0.045 xG per attempt to Colorado's 0.060—they should have stayed competitive.

But Colorado converted ruthlessly. Five goals on 25 rush chances; two came from low-danger spots. Seattle crashed the net for five rebounds and converted zero; Colorado created three rebound opportunities and scored none.

Goaltending amplified the gap. S. Wedgewood (COL) made 28 of 29 saves, finishing 2.0 goals above expected. J. Daccord (SEA) gave up 1.0 more than expected on 12 shots before being pulled; P. Grubauer (SEA) yielded 0.55 above expected on 9 saves.

Joel Kiviranta's deflection at 12:41 of the third broke the game open, but the score 5–1 rewrites what the expected goals said was a close game.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page

Final · Mar 12

COL

SEA

Avalanche pull away from the Kraken

Chances 3.4 – 3.0Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

The Avalanche earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value

COL

3.43

SEA

2.97

54% of the chances46%

The board read COL 5, SEA 1. The chances read COL 3.4, SEA 3.0.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

COL

+1.6

goals above expected

COL3.43 expected · 5 scored

Expected

Scored

SEA2.97 expected · 1 scored

Expected

Scored

The Avalanche scored 1.6 more than their chances were worth. That does not repeat.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

Every goal, in order

P1 03:45COLM. Necas1–0
P1 12:54COLN. MacKinnon2–0
P1 18:48COLN. RoyPP3–0
P2 13:36SEAR. EvansSH3–1
P2 17:11COLN. Kadri4–1
P3 12:41COLJ. Kiviranta5–1

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

COL

44 shots

Final

91 shots

SEA

47 shots

COL SEA GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

shots · 5 in

shots · 1 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

COLSEA

0 / 4

0.87 xG

High danger

0 / 2

0.50 xG

3 / 17

2.03 xG

Medium

1 / 16

1.82 xG

2 / 36

0.54 xG

Low

0 / 48

0.65 xG

High-danger looks: COL 0 of 4, SEA 0 of 2.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

S. Wedgewood

+2.0

COL · 28/29

B+

P. Grubauer

+1.4

SEA · 9/11

+1 more on the full breakdown

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

Avalanche pull away from the Kraken

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 08 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 15–8

03:45COLM. Necas(D. Toews, N. MacKinnon)1–0
12:54COLN. MacKinnon(M. Necas, D. Toews)2–0
18:48COLN. Roypower play(B. Nelson, N. MacKinnon)3–0

2ndshots 4–14

13:36SEAR. Evansshorthanded(C. Stephenson)3–1
17:11COLN. Kadri(S. Malinski, N. MacKinnon)4–1

3rdshots 7–7

12:41COLJ. Kiviranta(J. Manson, P. Kelly)5–1

score reads COL–SEA

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

3.43

COL chances

Goals their shots were worth

+1.6

Finishing

Goals above what those chances were worth

1.073

COL puck luck

Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way

46.3%

Shot attempts

Under half — they were outshot

Split by club

Who controlled the game

3.43Expected goals2.97

COL 54% of the chance quality

26Shots on goal29

4High-danger chances2

57All attempts (Corsi)66

Adjusted for score: COL 40% · SEA 60%

Faceoffs · SEA won67%off50%neu54%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

COL0 / 4 · 0.87 xG

SEA0 / 2 · 0.50 xG

Medium dangermid-range

COL3 / 17 · 2.03 xG

SEA1 / 16 · 1.82 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

COL2 / 36 · 0.54 xG

SEA0 / 48 · 0.65 xG

COL went 2-for-36 from low danger on 0.54 expected goals — 1.5 above expected.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

COL

5 G · 3.43 xG · +1.6

SEA

1 G · 2.97 xG · -2.0

0123456

COL finished +1.6 against expected, SEA -2.0.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

COL

WRIST3/27

BACKHAND0/4

TIP IN1/5

SLAP0/2

SNAP0/5

DEFLECTED1/1

WRAP AROUND0/0

POKE0/0

OTHER0/13

SEA

WRIST1/29

BACKHAND0/5

TIP IN0/3

SLAP0/6

SNAP0/2

DEFLECTED0/0

WRAP AROUND0/1

POKE0/1

OTHER0/19

COL

SEA

Off the rush

5 G on 25

2.15 xG

1 G on 28

2.24 xG

Off rebounds

0 G on 3

0.59 xG

0 G on 5

0.49 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: COL went 3-for-27, SEA 1-for-29. COL scored 5 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

S. Wedgewood

COL · 28/29 · .966

+2.0

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger0/20.5+0.5

Medium1/161.8+0.8

Low0/480.7+0.7

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

P. Grubauer

SEA · 9/11 · .818

+1.4

saved above expected

B+

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger0/40.9+0.9

Medium3/172.0-1.0

Low2/360.5-1.5

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

J. Daccord

SEA · 12/15 · .800

+0.4

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger0/40.9+0.9

Medium3/172.0-1.0

Low2/360.5-1.5

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

91 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

COL

44 shots

Final

91 shots

SEA

47 shots

COL SEA GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Each club shoots toward its own end — COL left, SEA right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

N. MacKinnon

#29 · C · COL

1 G · 3 A · 4 SOG · 20:58 on ice · +3

M. Necas

#88 · C · COL

1 G · 1 A · 1 SOG · 22:32 on ice · +3

D. Toews

#7 · D · COL

0 G · 2 A · 1 SOG · 19:41 on ice

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Thu, Mar 12

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity

◆ By the ModelJul 12, 7:18 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Colorado's fundamentals give them a 57% win probability, with the model projecting a 2.8-2.3 Avalanche victory. That lean is built on form and control: Colorado is 7-3-0 in their last ten, while Seattle has gone the opposite direction at minus-7 goal differential over the same span.

The underlying play tells the same story. Colorado dominates at 57.0% expected goals and 57.0% Corsi, meaning the Avalanche control where this game is played. Seattle's 46.0% xG and 45.0% Corsi tell you they're being hemmed in—a territorial disadvantage that compounds over 60 minutes.

But Colorado carries a live regression risk. Their 1.021 PDO sits above Seattle's 1.011—both teams are running hot, but the Avalanche are running hotter. That means some of Colorado's recent success is unsustainable luck baked into their numbers, and the model accounts for it.

Both goaltenders work on back-to-backs. Watch for a backup start or fatigue from J. Daccord in Seattle; the same scenario applies to M. Blackwood for Colorado. Either way, tired legs are a variable.

Artturi Lehkonen is Colorado's engine at 1.11 xG/60 with 18 goals and 6 high-danger chances. Ross Colton mirrors him at 1.10 xG/60 with 7 goals. Seattle counters with Shane Wright at 0.77 xG/60 and 8 goals, and Berkly Catton at 0.68 xG/60 with 5 high-danger chances. The creation gap is the game's axis.

Nazem Kadri is Colorado's defensive weak link. For Seattle, that's Chandler Stephenson. If Lehkonen and Colton execute on their volume, the model's lean becomes reality.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

COL 57%

57%

COL

Model favorite

57%

43%

COL50SEA

COL by 14 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score COL 2.8–2.3 SEA; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

COL← edge

edge →SEA

57.0%46.0%

57.0%45.0%

3.032.13

2.302.51

2.631.87

1.561.95

1.0211.011

COL holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.021 vs 1.011) says COL has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · Last 10

COL

7-3-0

+8 GD · 1d rest

SEA

4-6-0

-7 GD · 1d rest

1.021

COL PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

1.011

SEA PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

Where the edges live

The Avalanche own the underlying play — 57.0% 5v5 xG vs 46.0%.
The Avalanche drive Corsi at 57.0% — expect territorial tilt.

Regression watch

The Avalanche's PDO is 1.021 — running hot, expect some regression.

Things to watch

The Avalanche own the underlying play — 57.0% 5v5 xG vs 46.0%.
The Avalanche drive Corsi at 57.0% — expect territorial tilt.
J. Daccord is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
M. Blackwood is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
The Avalanche are the hotter team by points pace (7-3-0 in their last 10).
The Kraken are underwater at -7 goal differential over their last 10.
The Avalanche's PDO is 1.021 — running hot, expect some regression.

Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score

COL

Expected in goal

M. Blackwood

back-to-back.833 last start

Backup Scott Wedgewood · +23.1 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

SEA

Expected in goal

J. Daccord

back-to-back.885 last start

Backup Joey Daccord · -6.2 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG

COL

Artturi Lehkonen18G 22A

1.11 xG/60 · 6 HD · 14.9% sh

Ross Colton7G 15A

1.10 xG/60 · 1 HD · 4.9% sh

SEA

Shane Wright8G 10A

0.77 xG/60 · 4 HD · 10.4% sh

Berkly Catton6G 8A

0.68 xG/60 · 5 HD · 8.8% sh

Keep going

Where to next

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