Breakdown · NYR at MIN

I. Shesterkin stands tall as the Rangers edge the Wild

FinalSat, Mar 14

The verdict · stolen

The Rangers stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 2.95–5.28 and won anyway.

NYR 4 · MIN 2

◆ By the ModelJul 12, 7:06 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Minnesota controlled 64% of expected goals and lost 4–2. The Wild were the better team on the ice; the Rangers were better in the net.

The Wild outsized New York in every volume metric: 73% of shot attempts (48–18), eight high-danger chances to four. They crashed the net with purpose—14 rebound opportunities, zero conversions. It was a clinic in process and a lesson in variance.

I. Shesterkin turned the game into a masterclass. He stopped 46 of 48 shots, posting a 0.958 save percentage and +3.28 goals saved above expected—the kind of performance that steals wins. On the flip side, F. Gustavsson faced just 18 Rangers shots but surrendered four goals, finishing with a 0.778 save percentage and −1.05 relative to expected. Minnesota's chances were plentiful but not precise. When New York did attack, it was lethal: four goals on 19 rush attempts, compared to Minnesota's two on 33.

The Wild underperformed their 5.28 expected goals by 3.28. The Rangers overperformed their 2.95 by 1.05. That gulf is where the Rangers' steal becomes clear; Minnesota will remember this as the one that got away.

Three Stars

#44 V. Gavrikov (NYR) — 1G, 2A in 20:46
#23 A. Fox (NYR) — 2A in 23:06
#43 Q. Hughes (MIN) — 1A in 28:08

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page

Final · Mar 14

NYR

MIN

I. Shesterkin stands tall as the Rangers edge the Wild

Chances 3.0 – 5.3Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

The Wild deserved better.

Expected goals · chance value

NYR

2.95

MIN

5.28

36% of the chances64%

The board read NYR 4, MIN 2. The chances read NYR 3.0, MIN 5.3.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

NYR

+1.1

goals above expected

NYR2.95 expected · 4 scored

Expected

Scored

MIN5.28 expected · 2 scored

Expected

Scored

The Wild left 3.3 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

Every goal, in order

P1 02:41NYRN. LabaPP1–0
P1 15:00NYRV. Gavrikov2–0
P2 00:35MINM. BoldyPP2–1
P2 08:41NYRJ. Chmelar3–1
P2 09:03NYRV. Trocheck4–1
P3 07:19MIND. Yurov4–2

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

NYR

28 shots

Final

90 shots

MIN

62 shots

NYR MIN GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

shots · 4 in

shots · 2 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

NYRMIN

1 / 4

1.46 xG

High danger

1 / 8

2.01 xG

3 / 11

1.20 xG

Medium

1 / 25

2.41 xG

0 / 24

0.30 xG

Low

0 / 52

0.87 xG

High-danger looks: NYR 1 of 4, MIN 1 of 8.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

A+

I. Shesterkin

+3.3

NYR · 46/48

D-

F. Gustavsson

−1.1

MIN · 14/18

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

I. Shesterkin stands tall as the Rangers edge the Wild

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 08 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 9–6

02:41NYRN. Labapower play(G. Perreault, V. Gavrikov)1–0
15:00NYRV. Gavrikov(T. Kartye, A. Fox)2–0

2ndshots 8–21

00:35MINM. Boldypower play(Q. Hughes, F. Gustavsson)2–1
08:41NYRJ. Chmelar(T. Raddysh, U. Vaakanainen)3–1
09:03NYRV. Trocheck(V. Gavrikov, A. Fox)4–1

3rdshots 1–21

07:19MIND. Yurov(V. Tarasenko, Y. Trenin)4–2

score reads NYR–MIN

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

2.95

NYR chances

Goals their shots were worth

+1.1

Finishing

Goals above what those chances were worth

1.079

NYR puck luck

Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way

31.5%

Shot attempts

Under half — they were outshot

Split by club

Who controlled the game

2.95Expected goals5.28

MIN 64% of the chance quality

18Shots on goal48

4High-danger chances8

39All attempts (Corsi)85

Adjusted for score: NYR 27% · MIN 73%

Faceoffs · MIN won79%off53%neu38%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

NYR1 / 4 · 1.46 xG

MIN1 / 8 · 2.01 xG

Medium dangermid-range

NYR3 / 11 · 1.20 xG

MIN1 / 25 · 2.41 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

NYR0 / 24 · 0.30 xG

MIN0 / 52 · 0.87 xG

NYR went 3-for-11 from medium danger on 1.20 expected goals — 1.8 above expected.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

NYR

4 G · 2.95 xG · +1.1

MIN

2 G · 5.28 xG · -3.3

0123456

NYR finished +1.1 against expected, MIN -3.3.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

NYR

WRIST1/14

BACKHAND2/4

SLAP0/4

SNAP0/2

TIP IN0/2

DEFLECTED1/2

POKE0/0

OTHER0/11

MIN

WRIST2/34

BACKHAND0/9

SLAP0/6

SNAP0/7

TIP IN0/3

DEFLECTED0/2

POKE0/1

OTHER0/23

NYR

MIN

Off the rush

4 G on 19

1.95 xG

2 G on 33

2.82 xG

Off rebounds

0 G on 1

0.14 xG

0 G on 14

1.88 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: NYR went 1-for-14, MIN 2-for-34. NYR scored 4 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

I. Shesterkin

NYR · 46/48 · .958

+3.3

saved above expected

A+

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger1/82.0+1.0

Medium1/252.4+1.4

Low0/520.9+0.9

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

F. Gustavsson

MIN · 14/18 · .778

-1.1

saved above expected

D-

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger1/41.5+0.5

Medium3/111.2-1.8

Low0/240.3+0.3

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

90 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

NYR

28 shots

Final

90 shots

MIN

62 shots

NYR MIN GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Each club shoots toward its own end — NYR left, MIN right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

V. Gavrikov

#44 · D · NYR

1 G · 2 A · 1 SOG · 20:46 on ice · +3

A. Fox

#23 · D · NYR

0 G · 2 A · 0 SOG · 23:06 on ice · +2

Q. Hughes

#43 · D · MIN

0 G · 1 A · 2 SOG · 28:08 on ice · -2

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Sat, Mar 14

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity

◆ By the ModelJul 12, 7:20 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Minnesota enters this as a slight favorite. The model assigns the Wild 55% win probability and projects a 2.3–2.6 goal margin for New York—a spread so narrow it's barely a prediction at all.

The underlying play belongs entirely to Minnesota. The Wild grip 52.0% expected goals at 5v5 against the Rangers' 48.0%, a meaningful edge if unremarkable in magnitude. Minnesota's possession metrics (49.0% Corsi for the Rangers) show New York is fighting for puck. Neither team has found much shooting luck; both PDOs sit near 1.007–1.009, implying regression looms for both.

Goaltending becomes the variable that scrambles models. J. Wallstedt works the second half of a back-to-back. I. Shesterkin faces the same fatigue. Either could be fresh and dangerous, or either could fold under pressure.

The Rangers lean on two forwards to create. Adam Sykora has generated 0.91 expected goals per 60 minutes with 3G 1A and a 20.0% shooting percentage that cannot persist. Gabe Perreault runs 0.79 xG/60 and carries 8G 11A at a 13.1% clip—he is due for regression downward. Together, they're New York's only reliable generating force. The problem: Vincent Iorio, their defensive weak link, will spend time on ice when the team desperately needs stops.

Minnesota counters with Matt Boldy, who has posted 0.89 xG/60 on far stronger volume: 22G 18A, including 5 high-danger goals, at 13.7% shooting. Robby Fabbri clocks in at 0.88 xG/60 with 2G 3A and a 6.9% shooting rate, though he's likely out tonight.

The matchup hinges on whether Minnesota can sustain its play advantage through goaltending variance. On paper, Minnesota should win this. In practice, this is a flip.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

MIN 55%

54%

MIN

Model favorite

46%

54%

NYR50MIN

MIN by 8 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score NYR 2.3–2.6 MIN; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

NYR← edge

edge →MIN

48.0%52.0%

49.0%48.0%

2.262.55

2.402.40

1.882.04

1.901.93

1.0091.007

The season numbers split 3–3 — no clear process edge — and the luck row (1.009 vs 1.007) says NYR has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · Last 10

NYR

5-3-2

+8 GD · 1d rest

MIN

6-2-2

+9 GD · 1d rest

1.009

NYR PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

1.007

MIN PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

Where the edges live

The Wild own the underlying play — 52.0% 5v5 xG vs 48.0%.

Things to watch

The Wild own the underlying play — 52.0% 5v5 xG vs 48.0%.
J. Wallstedt is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
I. Shesterkin is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.

Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score

NYR

Expected in goal

I. Shesterkin

back-to-back.885 last start

Backup Igor Shesterkin · +21.3 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

MIN

Expected in goal

J. Wallstedt

back-to-back.926 last start

Backup Filip Gustavsson · +1.4 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG

NYR

Adam Sykora3G 1A

0.91 xG/60 · 0 HD · 20.0% sh

Gabe Perreault8G 11A

0.79 xG/60 · 2 HD · 13.1% sh

MIN

Matt Boldy22G 18A

0.89 xG/60 · 5 HD · 13.7% sh

Robby Fabbri2G 3A

0.88 xG/60 · 1 HD · 6.9% sh

Keep going

Where to next

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